rhodescholar
Gold Member
- Banned
- #41
Ok, here is what I don't understand:
There are elections .......The wrong answer is military intervention, as some here [rhodescholar and others] would have you believe. That recommendation displays extreme short-sightedness. Military intervention against Iran would accomplish only two things- unite the country behind the regime and against the invader, and pretty much legitimize the regime's hardline international stance (i.e. everything it's been saying about the "foreign enemy"). If these protests continue, it will become obvious maybe not today or tomorrow but in the not-too-distant future that the Iranian people must and will solve this by themselves. Foreign intervention must help the democratizing forces inside the country but maintain a fair bit of distance lest the collusion itself becomes a point of contention. And well... for now we have to wait and see. Ideally, the protests would grow. But if it is indeed true that the results have delegitimized the regime in the eyes of a huge segment of the population (the majority if the opposition won, or a significant minority even if it lost), then the regime's days are counted, foreign intervention or not.And well, that's my take on the issue.
A good post, and well thought out one, but the problem for many Westerners is that we retain a level of civil decency towards one another, i.e., where we expect others who, if they see us waiting in line at a supermarket, won't push us to the floor and say "I'm next!"
Given that the iranian regime will kill every last iranian to retain power, there really is no way for the people there to enact any kind of velvet uprising/regime change, like we saw in Russian in 1991, Germany in 1989, or the Ukraine a few years back, it is just not possible in iran.
Only outside military intervention, and yes, I know, everyone hates Nazi comparions, but as in the case with Nazi Germany, there is no way that an almost completely unarmed populace can overthrow a regime committed to retaining power at any cost, and will use armed militias, police, and RG to physically attack and kill the protestors, as they did today shooting into the crowds.
Does anyone doubt that Kim Jong Il has starved millions to stay in power? Do we want to move forward knowing we could have stopped pol pot before he killed millions? I don't want this on my conscience, I have expended significant effort in my life trying to persuade superior officers to have taken actions that would have saved far more lives in the long run, but was ordered to "stay my weapon."
Here is my take on the next few weeks on a country I know quite well:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/1278848-post25.html