I'm No Pollster, So Please Help Me Out With This

[NYcarbineer]

I've read several items within the past couple of weeks which refer to an over sampling of Democrats in current polls.
I had simply brushed it off being that the claims are not getting a ton of attention. Being that I know little of the process by which these polls are compiled I suppose I figured there was a very good reason for it.

PEW POLL METHODOLOGY QUESTIONED

Polling this year typically includes more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

The article seems to imply there is not some esoteric reasoning behind this but I've heard it mentioned so often despite virtually no collective outrage over it that I'm wondering if anyone can explain why pollsters might do this, aside from the obvious.

They do over sample Democrats. Which is why Reagan, Bush Sr., & Bush Jr. were all (according to the polls) supposed to lose their elections.

What's the point of lying?

Bush Jr. was ahead of Kerry in about 80 of the last 90 polls taken from the 1st of September to the election.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Oversampling of Democrats is just a way conservatives have of denying polls they don't like.

 

[Jackson]

Somehow, Rasmussen seems to get it right. I believe that is because they poll the most likely voters and are the most up to date pollsters.

Who Were The Most Accurate Presidential Pollsters?
Written by: Shaneon Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
A Fordham University report by Costas Panagopoulos rates the pollsters for this presidential election. Here are the most accurate:
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Thanks go to Texas On The Potomac for the heads up.

Most Accurate Pollsters in 2008 election | Political Vindication

According to Politico, "Rasmussen’s final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election’s outcome."[39] In reference to the 2008 presidential election, a Talking Points Memo article said, "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there."[40]

Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[jillian]

I've read several items within the past couple of weeks which refer to an over sampling of Democrats in current polls.
I had simply brushed it off being that the claims are not getting a ton of attention. Being that I know little of the process by which these polls are compiled I suppose I figured there was a very good reason for it.

PEW POLL METHODOLOGY QUESTIONED

Polling this year typically includes more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

The article seems to imply there is not some esoteric reasoning behind this but I've heard it mentioned so often despite virtually no collective outrage over it that I'm wondering if anyone can explain why pollsters might do this, aside from the obvious.

They do over sample Democrats. Which is why Reagan, Bush Sr., & Bush Jr. were all (according to the polls) supposed to lose their elections.

ASIs from the fact that they don't over sample democrats, I'd think polling is a much more sophisticated science, in general, than it was back then.

Finally, if polls are so off, how were so many dead on for the last few election cycles.