If the Polls are "Skewed"

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by nodoginnafight, Sep 28, 2012.

  1. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    How come they do such a better job of predicting the final outcome than the single "unskewed" poll?

    Seriously, Rassmussen was out performed by at least a half dozen polls on the RCP (and by the RCP average) in the 2008 national voting. In 2008 Rassmussen's State polls were horrible - and over-estimated Republican support by 4 points across the board.

    In 2010 - forget about it - Rassmussen got his ass kicked soundly by EVERYbody. Rassmussen over-estimated Repuplican support in the Hawaii Senate race by 40 POINTS

    Serioulsy, 40 POINTS

    And yet THIS is the poll that the far right are hanging their hat on????

    I swear, they are starting to sound like a cult. "Don't believe your eyes. Don't believe your ears. Don't believe common sense and logic. JUST believe what we tell you to believe"
     
  2. Article 15
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    Article 15 Dr. House slayer

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    Even the latest FOXNews poll has Obama up 5 points nationally.

    The people who keeping banging the skewed polls drum are just trying to cope.
     
  3. hazlnut
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    hazlnut Gold Member

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    It's not the polls.

    It's the voters. They're all bias.
     
  4. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    last time around they said - the "Bradley Effect" was why no one should believe the polls. This time it's "over-sampled Democrats."
    I guess it's understandable - we don't really expect them to step out at this point and say, "Momentum seems to be shifting away from us."

    How much money they gonna be able to milk the donors for that way?
     
  5. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    Total lie that has been debunked so many times that it's positively laughable that anyone could make that claim.

    http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

    So, they blew one election....That the best you got?

    Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

    But don't believe your lying eyes. :rolleyes:
     
  6. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    What is more laughable is that you swallowed that blog without blinking.Check under the hood there partner. That poly sci instructor released that BEFORE final numbers were out. He based his study of polls on PRELIMENARY numbers. The final numbers pushed Rass - to the middle of the pack in the national numbers in 2008 and their state numbers were atrocious.

    In 2010 their numbers were among the worst across the board - the Hawaii sentate race ... WOW, a decent organization with sound methodolgy doesn't lay a turd like that one. It was the worst performance by a pollster in the history of the RCP.

    I had you pegged as someone who just swallowed talking points without personal research or even critical review. Thanks for confirming.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2012
  7. Oddball
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    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

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    You're a liar and definitely have a dog in the fight.

    Now shoo. :lol:
     
  8. AceRothstein
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    AceRothstein Gold Member

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    Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.
     
  9. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    ahhh - the dreaded "liar, liar, pants on fire" defense. I am cut to the quick.
    But what else ya got when the facts don't back you, huh?

    You seem like a decent enough guy. I wish you the best. I would encourage you to check under the hood when you start hearing claims, but whatever makes you happy ....
     
  10. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    I think we are seeing the exact same pattern we see every cycle- crazy polls that mean nothing. Political polling is not an exact science- it's a SWAG.

    I do remember Carter being way, WAY WAY!! ahead of Reagan according to Gallup in October of 1980.....we all know how that worked out!

    Bottom line - This is a very close race and it's all going to come down to voter turnout in the swing states like Ohio and Florida. Hopefully the media continues to advance the narrative that "Obama's got this"....that way more of his supporters stay home on election day..why bother to vote? He's got this....he can't lose.
     

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