If the Polls are "Skewed"

[nodoginnafight]

How come they do such a better job of predicting the final outcome than the single "unskewed" poll?

Seriously, Rassmussen was out performed by at least a half dozen polls on the RCP (and by the RCP average) in the 2008 national voting. In 2008 Rassmussen's State polls were horrible - and over-estimated Republican support by 4 points across the board.

In 2010 - forget about it - Rassmussen got his ass kicked soundly by EVERYbody. Rassmussen over-estimated Repuplican support in the Hawaii Senate race by 40 POINTS

Serioulsy, 40 POINTS

And yet THIS is the poll that the far right are hanging their hat on????

I swear, they are starting to sound like a cult. "Don't believe your eyes. Don't believe your ears. Don't believe common sense and logic. JUST believe what we tell you to believe"

 

[Article 15]

Even the latest FOXNews poll has Obama up 5 points nationally.

The people who keeping banging the skewed polls drum are just trying to cope.

 

[hazlnut]

It's not the polls.

It's the voters. They're all bias.

 

[nodoginnafight]

last time around they said - the "Bradley Effect" was why no one should believe the polls. This time it's "over-sampled Democrats."
I guess it's understandable - we don't really expect them to step out at this point and say, "Momentum seems to be shifting away from us."

How much money they gonna be able to milk the donors for that way?

 

[Oddball]

How come they do such a better job of predicting the final outcome than the single "unskewed" poll?

Seriously, Rassmussen was out performed by at least a half dozen polls on the RCP (and by the RCP average) in the 2008 national voting. In 2008 Rassmussen's State polls were horrible - and over-estimated Republican support by 4 points across the board.

Total lie that has been debunked so many times that it's positively laughable that anyone could make that claim.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

In 2010 - forget about it - Rassmussen got his ass kicked soundly by EVERYbody. Rassmussen over-estimated Repuplican support in the Hawaii Senate race by 40 POINTS

Serioulsy, 40 POINTS

And yet THIS is the poll that the far right are hanging their hat on????

So, they blew one election....That the best you got?

I swear, they are starting to sound like a cult. "Don't believe your eyes. Don't believe your ears. Don't believe common sense and logic. JUST believe what we tell you to believe"

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

 

[nodoginnafight]

How come they do such a better job of predicting the final outcome than the single "unskewed" poll?

Seriously, Rassmussen was out performed by at least a half dozen polls on the RCP (and by the RCP average) in the 2008 national voting. In 2008 Rassmussen's State polls were horrible - and over-estimated Republican support by 4 points across the board.

Total lie that has been debunked so many times that it's positively laughable that anyone could make that claim.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

In 2010 - forget about it - Rassmussen got his ass kicked soundly by EVERYbody. Rassmussen over-estimated Repuplican support in the Hawaii Senate race by 40 POINTS

Serioulsy, 40 POINTS

And yet THIS is the poll that the far right are hanging their hat on????

So, they blew one election....That the best you got?

I swear, they are starting to sound like a cult. "Don't believe your eyes. Don't believe your ears. Don't believe common sense and logic. JUST believe what we tell you to believe"

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

What is more laughable is that you swallowed that blog without blinking.Check under the hood there partner. That poly sci instructor released that BEFORE final numbers were out. He based his study of polls on PRELIMENARY numbers. The final numbers pushed Rass - to the middle of the pack in the national numbers in 2008 and their state numbers were atrocious.

In 2010 their numbers were among the worst across the board - the Hawaii sentate race ... WOW, a decent organization with sound methodolgy doesn't lay a turd like that one. It was the worst performance by a pollster in the history of the RCP.

I had you pegged as someone who just swallowed talking points without personal research or even critical review. Thanks for confirming.

 

[Oddball]

You're a liar and definitely have a dog in the fight.

Now shoo.

 

[AceRothstein]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

 

[nodoginnafight]

ahhh - the dreaded "liar, liar, pants on fire" defense. I am cut to the quick.
But what else ya got when the facts don't back you, huh?

You seem like a decent enough guy. I wish you the best. I would encourage you to check under the hood when you start hearing claims, but whatever makes you happy ....

 

[Zander]

I think we are seeing the exact same pattern we see every cycle- crazy polls that mean nothing. Political polling is not an exact science- it's a SWAG.

I do remember Carter being way, WAY WAY!! ahead of Reagan according to Gallup in October of 1980.....we all know how that worked out!

Bottom line - This is a very close race and it's all going to come down to voter turnout in the swing states like Ohio and Florida. Hopefully the media continues to advance the narrative that "Obama's got this"....that way more of his supporters stay home on election day..why bother to vote? He's got this....he can't lose.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

The results speak for themselves - these "skewed" polls have routinely outperformed their "unskewed" assumptions. But you can't get donors to cough up more cash for the home stretch is you don't come up with something other than, "Yeah, I need your money but I'm probably going to lose."

So you try to explain away the poor numbers with the "Bradley Effect" or "Over-sampled Democrats" and try to give them a reason to part with some cash.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Even the latest FOXNews poll has Obama up 5 points nationally.

The people who keeping banging the skewed polls drum are just trying to cope.

The absurdity of an anti-Romney poll skewing conspiracy is borne out by the Foxnews polls.

Just FYI, the current Foxnews polls are conducted by a combined effort of a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster.

 

[AceRothstein]

I think we are seeing the exact same pattern we see every cycle- crazy polls that mean nothing. Political polling is not an exact science- it's a SWAG.

I do remember Carter being way, WAY WAY!! ahead of Reagan according to Gallup in October of 1980.....we all know how that worked out!

Bottom line - This is a very close race and it's all going to come down to voter turnout in the swing states like Ohio and Florida. Hopefully the media continues to advance the narrative that "Obama's got this"....that way more of his supporters stay home on election day..why bother to vote? He's got this....he can't lose.

But the polls were pretty damn close, if not on the spot, over the last 3 presidential elections. Dredging up 1 poll from an election 32 years ago isn't helping your argument.

 

[Katzndogz]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

Continued existence. Gallup put Romney up and got sued by the Justice Department. They had obama take a spike and there's no mention of the lawsuit anymore.

 

[NYcarbineer]

[Total lie that has been debunked so many times that it's positively laughable that anyone could make that claim.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

What's laughable is that people like you are still using that fordham link, which, if you read it,

prematurely assumed that Obama won by 6. In reality he won by 7.3 points.

That made the most accurate polls CNN, Foxnews, and McClatchy.

Oh, and more importantly, citing ONE poll/election result as the case for the accuracy of a pollster is idiocy.

 

[Article 15]

I think we are seeing the exact same pattern we see every cycle- crazy polls that mean nothing. Political polling is not an exact science- it's a SWAG.

I do remember Carter being way, WAY WAY!! ahead of Reagan according to Gallup in October of 1980.....we all know how that worked out!

Bottom line - This is a very close race and it's all going to come down to voter turnout in the swing states like Ohio and Florida. Hopefully the media continues to advance the narrative that "Obama's got this"....that way more of his supporters stay home on election day..why bother to vote? He's got this....he can't lose.

A republican hoping for a low voter turnout. Shocking.

 

[Oddball]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

I don't delve into speculation of motivations of people I don't know.

Fact remains that when the methodologies are being revealed, democrats are being oversampled....Why the thumb is on the scale is irrelevant to the fact that it is.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

Continued existence. Gallup put Romney up and got sued by the Justice Department. They had obama take a spike and there's no mention of the lawsuit anymore.

Even as the least intelligent poster on this board, you know that's a lie.

Explain to us why Foxnews is showing Obama leading.

 

[AceRothstein]

Fact remains that democrats are being oversampled by most pollsters, and they're even admitting as much in the disclosure of their methodologies.

But don't believe your lying eyes.

Why do you think this is? What do private polling companies have to gain from being wrong as all the cons are claiming? I think this is the fifth time I've asked this question, maybe this time I will get an answer.

Continued existence. Gallup put Romney up and got sued by the Justice Department. They had obama take a spike and there's no mention of the lawsuit anymore.

Gallup is showing the same thing as a number of other polls. This has been mentioned numerous times but the lawsuit had nothing to do with presidential tracking polls.

 

[expatriate]

Republicans blame it all on oversampling democrats now...

I assume they will blame voter fraud or some other mythical hijinx when Obama wins the election.

It is quite telling that they NEVER seem to be able to accept any of the blame themselves.