2aguy
Diamond Member
- Jul 19, 2014
- 111,973
- 52,242
- 2,290
It would also require both him and Sinema to caucus on their own, leaving the Senate split 49/49/2.......but it would be great if it happened...
However, there is one more possibility. What would happen if both Manchin and Sinema move into the Independent column — and refuse to caucus with either party initially? Instead of a 51/49 split in the Senate, it suddenly becomes 49/49/2; if King decides to join, then it becomes 49/48/3. That would force both caucuses to bargain for their support in a leadership fight, one that would keep Kamala Harris on the sidelines and require whomever wins to stick to their bargains. The two or three senators in the center would have far more power to dictate policy outcomes and to punish welchers than they do at present. If they get betrayed, the Independent caucus could trigger a leadership fight by swinging to the other side and starting the process all over again.
It would be the Manchin-Sinema Show of 2021-22 again, but on steroids. Furthermore, it suddenly makes both of their states the most important political ground in 2024, and that would make both senators indispensable to their voters. Short of flipping to the GOP outright, it’s the best argument Manchin would have for re-election in the next cycle.
However, there is one more possibility. What would happen if both Manchin and Sinema move into the Independent column — and refuse to caucus with either party initially? Instead of a 51/49 split in the Senate, it suddenly becomes 49/49/2; if King decides to join, then it becomes 49/48/3. That would force both caucuses to bargain for their support in a leadership fight, one that would keep Kamala Harris on the sidelines and require whomever wins to stick to their bargains. The two or three senators in the center would have far more power to dictate policy outcomes and to punish welchers than they do at present. If they get betrayed, the Independent caucus could trigger a leadership fight by swinging to the other side and starting the process all over again.
It would be the Manchin-Sinema Show of 2021-22 again, but on steroids. Furthermore, it suddenly makes both of their states the most important political ground in 2024, and that would make both senators indispensable to their voters. Short of flipping to the GOP outright, it’s the best argument Manchin would have for re-election in the next cycle.
