Hurricane level at 33 year low

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Oct 8, 2010.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Yep, you heard correct. olfraud was telling us how bad the hurricane season was going to be and poof...bupkus. The mildest hurricane season in 33 years. Kind of like I predicted.
    Of course it wasn't me that predicted it. It was listening to what experts like this were saying...not propagandists.

    coaps.fsu.edu | Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
     
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  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    World wide outside of the Atlantic you would be right, but NOT the Atlantic.

    The Atlantic has had 15/7/5 so far...

    4 cat4's with 2 going at once that has not happened in 90 years. The last time three majors where going at once was 1998. With 1999 tieing for cat4's with Bret, Cindy, Gert, Floyd, Lenny

    This year has had
    Earl
    Danielle
    Igor
    Julia


    No nor 2005, but not a quit one. 2009, 2006, 2001, 2000 where years that didn't get hurricane hits on the United states. This season remained me of a mix of 2000 and 2001 with some of the troughing of 1995 at 60 west recurving the majority of storms into the open Atlantic.

    Alex 95 knots, Mexico
    Bonnie weak tropical storm 35 knots, Florida
    Earl cat4 north of the islands, but weakens to strong tropical storm for impact on canada
    Hermine hits northern Mexico as a tropical storm and moves into Texas
    Igor hits bermuda
    Julia furtherest east cat4 in Atlantic history, east of 35 west.
    Karl strongest storm within BOC in history..Beating Janet and karl become the first cat3 south of 22 north within the BOC.


    Eastern Pacific
    Had celia
    Darby

    Celia was the second known cat5 to ever form in June in Eastern Pacific history.
    Darby was the earliest second major in history.
    Yes it shut down after that...

    Western Pacific sucked ass so far this year.

    To get a idea of how active this hurricane season has been in the Atlantic...
    1887 19 storms
    1916 15 storms
    1933 21 storms
    1936 16 storms
    1995 19 storms
    2003 16 storms
    2005 28 storms
    2004 15 storms
    2007 15 storms
    2008 16 storms
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2010
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    The predictions made were based on the similarity to the weather conditions of 2005. And that has been accurate. 17 storms, 5 major, is hardly a quiet season. We are very fortunate that none of the major ones made landfall.
     
  4. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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  5. The Infidel
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    The Infidel EVIL CONSERVATIVE

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    I agree.... can you imagine how this regime could screw that up as well? Wonder what kind of moratoriums they could come with.... :confused:

    Would've made Bush look like a genius.

    Lets just pray the next couple of years are quiet as well :eusa_whistle:

     
  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Hurricane level at 33 year low, global warming to blame
     
  7. saveliberty
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    saveliberty Diamond Member

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    Wild swings from established norms is common for global warming. All of our manipulated data clearly shows the possibility of this outcome.
     
  8. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    The more powerful the El Nino, the fewer the number of hurricanes.

    Pretty simple really.
     
  9. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Not so within the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, Western Pacific, but that is true within the Atlantic.

    Nina years within the postive AMO avg between 13-15 named storms per year
    1995-19, 3rd most active
    1996-13, Fran last cat3 landfall on US north of 35...
    1998-Later parts, Mitch, Georges, ect
    1999-Floyd, Gert, Cindy, Bret,
    2000-Keith into Belize
    2001-Michelle strongest cyclone to hit since Fox
    2003-Isabel, Juan
    2004-Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Frances
    2005 kind of neutral. Most active season in history.
    2007 2 cat5's!
    2008 Ike, Gustav, Omar, Paloma
    2010 later parts

    Where nino years

    1997 8 named storms
    2002 12 named storms
    2006 10 named storms
    2009 9 named storms only about 51 ace

    This is caused by a increase in westerly shear within the MDR/Or area from 45-65 west south of 25 north...While La nina's normally have more favorable mdr's and lower shear...But strong la nina's can also have stronger azore highs that keep the itcz to the south. So a weak to moderate la nina like 2005 is normally the best for a good Atlantic season.

    While nino years can have monster season's within the eastern Pacific with 17-21 named storms occuring in years like 1992, 1997...Also the central and western Pacific gets into the game. The western Pacific is having one very quit one this year!

    This Atlantic season has over 135 ace points and has 16 named storms now. 2008 had 16 named storms and 145 ace points, but had solid ridging to steer the cyclones west into the US. Ike 3rd costiest storm in US history, Gustav into LA to name a few...This year we have had Alex and Karl as the monsters, but into Mexico.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2010
  10. saveliberty
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    saveliberty Diamond Member

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    Actually El Nino causes warmer currents in the Pacific, which hurricanes should draw energy from and make stronger hurricanes. Not only simple, but fact.
     

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