- Dec 29, 2008
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he artillery that has been the centerpiece of Russia's offensive in Ukraine is running severely short as Ukraine's increasingly effective weapons of the same type exact devastating losses, according to U.S. intelligence analysts.
Artillery, called the "God of War" by Joseph Stalin for its deadliness, is also central to Ukraine's ongoing counter-offensive. While that has made slower progress than last year's dramatic advances against the Russian invasion, the analysts believe Russia's artillery shortages are not only allowing the Ukrainians to operate with greater flexibility but were also behind Yevgeny Prigozhin's attention-grabbing mutiny in late June.
"Artillery has been Russia's advantage, until now," says a senior defense intelligence official, in an emailed statement to Newsweek, "and though the artillery duel between the two countries has been relentless and had crushing effect on both sides, it is Russia that is now suffering the greatest losses." The official requested anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.
The counter-offensive is now impeded mostly by the task of breaching Russian minefields and defenses, which after a year of preparation are enormous.
Russian authorities did not respond to Newsweek's request for comment. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not publicly addressed the shortages or supply problems associated with artillery. The Ministry has said that Russian forces are increasingly using small drones to spot targets for indirect artillery attack, and that "high explosive and high explosive fragmentation shells are used to inflict as much losses on Armed Forces of Ukraine personnel and fortified positions as possible, including deep underground concrete fortifications of Ukrainian nationalists."
A combination of factors, including Western supplies of better guns and shells, superior intelligence information and counterbattery fire, and long-range attacks on Russian supply lines have accumulated in favor of Ukraine over the past 10 months.
Disjointed and uncoordinated Russian attacks, including human wave attacks by Prigozhin's private Wagner group have also resulted in higher and higher casualties amongst Russian soldiers, analysts say.
That was a factor in Prigozhin's dramatic rebellion in late June when his forces barreled towards Moscow before reaching agreement to pull back.
"Conventional wisdom regarding the entire Wagner episode is wrong," writes a second senior military intelligence officer who has consistently predicted that Russia would lose the Ukraine war. "There was no coup and Prigozhin was most likely going public to reach out directly to Putin to highlight devastating losses and Moscow's losing strategy."
Everyday Ukraine grows stronger and Russia grows weaker.
Artillery, called the "God of War" by Joseph Stalin for its deadliness, is also central to Ukraine's ongoing counter-offensive. While that has made slower progress than last year's dramatic advances against the Russian invasion, the analysts believe Russia's artillery shortages are not only allowing the Ukrainians to operate with greater flexibility but were also behind Yevgeny Prigozhin's attention-grabbing mutiny in late June.
"Artillery has been Russia's advantage, until now," says a senior defense intelligence official, in an emailed statement to Newsweek, "and though the artillery duel between the two countries has been relentless and had crushing effect on both sides, it is Russia that is now suffering the greatest losses." The official requested anonymity to speak about sensitive matters.
The counter-offensive is now impeded mostly by the task of breaching Russian minefields and defenses, which after a year of preparation are enormous.
Russian authorities did not respond to Newsweek's request for comment. The Russian Ministry of Defense has not publicly addressed the shortages or supply problems associated with artillery. The Ministry has said that Russian forces are increasingly using small drones to spot targets for indirect artillery attack, and that "high explosive and high explosive fragmentation shells are used to inflict as much losses on Armed Forces of Ukraine personnel and fortified positions as possible, including deep underground concrete fortifications of Ukrainian nationalists."
A combination of factors, including Western supplies of better guns and shells, superior intelligence information and counterbattery fire, and long-range attacks on Russian supply lines have accumulated in favor of Ukraine over the past 10 months.
Disjointed and uncoordinated Russian attacks, including human wave attacks by Prigozhin's private Wagner group have also resulted in higher and higher casualties amongst Russian soldiers, analysts say.
That was a factor in Prigozhin's dramatic rebellion in late June when his forces barreled towards Moscow before reaching agreement to pull back.
"Conventional wisdom regarding the entire Wagner episode is wrong," writes a second senior military intelligence officer who has consistently predicted that Russia would lose the Ukraine war. "There was no coup and Prigozhin was most likely going public to reach out directly to Putin to highlight devastating losses and Moscow's losing strategy."
MSN
www.msn.com
Everyday Ukraine grows stronger and Russia grows weaker.
