Paul Motter
Gold Member
- Aug 29, 2018
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In 2016, I had a feeling Hillary knew she was tits up when she canceled her fireworks display on the afternoon of election day - long before any state victories were called. In the end, the only day-before "tells" that Trump would win were
1) The Trump team's internal polling
(2) The crowd enthusiasm at his rallies
On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.
So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.
How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.
If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.
1) The Trump team's internal polling
(2) The crowd enthusiasm at his rallies
On election day, the irrefutable "FiveThirtyEight" (which at the time was part of the NY Times staff) said Hillary had over a 70% chance of winning - and yet she lost. Fox/WSJ polling was also notoriously bad in 2016 as it is again this year. One of the closer polls was RealClearPolitics, which today shows Trump doing far better than most other polls. This year they have neither candidate winning the electoral college (Biden is in the lead but not over the top), but they have 187 tossup electoral votes.
So, I go back to (1) Republican polling and (2) voter enthusiasm. Trump's team is still extremely confident here.
How many people do you see who are truly excited about a Biden Presidency? Anyone? - NOT even AOC has said she supports his policies, she said she believes he can be "molded." The man is lifeless and seems incapable of even speaking coherently. And what about Kamala? Why is she NOT campaigning? She doesn't need a nap every day.
If anything has changed, there is far more diversity in the Trump crowds than ever before AND the Trump pollsters say they are seeing far more democrats and undecideds at their rallies than in 2016.
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