Goodbye La Nina!

[Old Rocks]

Climate Reanalyzer

The La Nina that couldn't is now in the rear view mirror. Only got down to +0.2. Possible El Nino this fall or winter. And some here were predicting a super La Nina. LOL

 

[Old Rocks]

Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Darker purple envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter purple shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from CPC data.


What the future holds
Enough looking back! Let’s look forward! As we’ve discussed before, making ENSO forecasts in spring is especially complicated. It’s a time of transition, and small changes in conditions can have large effects down the road. This month’s ENSO forecast finds it most likely that neutral conditions will last through the summer and into early fall. Most of the climate models support this.

What about next winter?? The forecast possibility of El Niño nears 50% by the winter, as many of the computer models are trending to warmer tropical sea surface conditions in the later months of 2018. In the historical record (dating back to 1950) we’ve had 7 two-year La Niña events. These events have been followed by El Niño twice: 1972 and 2009. The probability of remaining in neutral conditions is about 40%, something that has happened three times in the record: 1956, 1985, and 2012. Less likely is a return to La Niña conditions—that scenario is given about a 10% chance. A three-peat La Niña isn’t impossible, at all, and has occurred twice in the historical record: 1973–76, and 1998–2001.

One thing we can be certain of is that forecasters are looking forward to next month, when the models are increasingly getting past the spring predictability barrier and are more reliable. See you then!

May 2018 ENSO update: Thar she goes | NOAA Climate.gov

As we transition to ENSO neutral, going to be interesting in seeing what the temperature does.

 

[skookerasbil]

Climate models are ghey

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL...

Your going to be very disappointed...

Cold water at depth and at the surface is going to ruin your day... Do you see what is coming up the south american coast to the equator? -2 deg C water... Your upward trend is going to be very short lived..

 

[Jessica123]

Climate models are ghey

Too you science is gay! It doesn't surprise me that you think this way either as you're jealous of people much more intelligent then you. lol

Short term climate models when dealing with the ENSO! Not perfect but hardly gay as they do get it right at times.

 

[eagle1462010]

 

[Jessica123]

Lol, showing your knowledge on the enso I see. lol, lol, lol

Please explain why an nino isn't going to form later this year?

See that column of warmer water moving from west to east around 100-150 meters? That surfaces you can expect an el nino.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Old crock is going to very disappointed..

 

[eagle1462010]

Lol, showing your knowledge on the enso I see. lol, lol, lol

Please explain why an nino isn't going to form later this year?

See that column of warmer water moving from west to east around 100-150 meters? That surfaces you can expect an el nino.

My god.........sarcasm escapes you again.................geesh..............

 

[Jessica123]

Old crock is going to very disappointed..

Watch that warm anomaly around 100-150 meters below the surface, surface as time goes on. Why exactly will that surprise old rocks? There's no hint of any cold pool or the likely hood that it won't surface.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Old crock is going to very disappointed..

Watch that warm anomaly around 100-150 meters below the surface, surface as time goes on. Why exactly will that surprise old rocks? There's no hint of any cold pool or the likely hood that it won't surface.

The warm pool is already diminishing and has been for three weeks..

 

[Old Rocks]

Every day, Silly Billy, every day.

 

[skookerasbil]

Climate models are ghey

Too you science is gay! It doesn't surprise me that you think this way either as you're jealous of people much more intelligent then you. lol

Short term climate models when dealing with the ENSO! Not perfect but hardly gay as they do get it right at times.

But all the intelligent people are losing, honey! Personally, i prefer to be a winning dummy! The entire world has been hearing about the consensus science for 20 years, but the public is still not giving a shit. All that intelligence has not impressed the public policy makers one iota = who's not winning?.

Please do show us where the science is mattering in the real world? Provide links please sweetie

 

[Sunsettommy]

Old Rocks, are you going to admit that it is El-Nino phases that warms up the atmosphere?

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL Good God, what are you blathering about now? Of course the El Nino results in a warmer atmosphere during it's duration. And a warmer ocean, warmed by a warmer atmosphere during both El Nino's and La Nina's, result in every major El Nino being warmer than the last major El Nino. And the warmer atmosphere results from the GHGs that we have put into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels.

 

[skookerasbil]

Nobody cares about La Nina, El Nanyo, La Vaza, El BlowMe or any other ElLa...

I guess maybe it's a cool topic to discuss on a community message board, but most people couldnt possibly care any less!

Been watching the El Nino La Nina debate for years and years in this forum. What has the discussion led to? DICK!!



Oh....and prolific levels of navel gazing >>>

Google Image Result for http://blogs.mcgill.ca/iss/files/2011/01/navelGazing1.jpg

 

[Old Rocks]

Climate models are ghey

Too you science is gay! It doesn't surprise me that you think this way either as you're jealous of people much more intelligent then you. lol

Short term climate models when dealing with the ENSO! Not perfect but hardly gay as they do get it right at times.

But all the intelligent people are losing, honey! Personally, i prefer to be a winning dummy! The entire world has been hearing about the consensus science for 20 years, but the public is still not giving a shit. All that intelligence has not impressed the public policy makers one iota = who's not winning?.

Please do show us where the science is mattering in the real world? Provide links please sweetie

When you posted your nonsense, which you did with a computer on the internet, you just demonstrated in no uncertain manner where science is mattering in the real world.

 

[skookerasbil]

Climate models are ghey

Too you science is gay! It doesn't surprise me that you think this way either as you're jealous of people much more intelligent then you. lol

Short term climate models when dealing with the ENSO! Not perfect but hardly gay as they do get it right at times.

But all the intelligent people are losing, honey! Personally, i prefer to be a winning dummy! The entire world has been hearing about the consensus science for 20 years, but the public is still not giving a shit. All that intelligence has not impressed the public policy makers one iota = who's not winning?.

Please do show us where the science is mattering in the real world? Provide links please sweetie

When you posted your nonsense, which you did with a computer on the internet, you just demonstrated in no uncertain manner where science is mattering in the real world.

Comparing apples and oranges.

The point I made in my last post is not debatable!

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

All I know is, it seems it's been cooler and drier for longer in the extreme Southern US latitudes this year...at least on the extreme Southeast peninsula

 

[Old Rocks]

And, for us, this is the warmest May on record for us after a very warm winter. So nobodies backyard is the single proof of warming or cooling.

For you sig picture, this liberal has his guns, is very proficient with them, and will back up law enforcement if needed.