Goodbye La Nina!

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, May 22, 2018.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Climate Reanalyzer

    The La Nina that couldn't is now in the rear view mirror. Only got down to +0.2. Possible El Nino this fall or winter. And some here were predicting a super La Nina. LOL
     
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  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index, from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Darker purple envelope shows the range of 68% of all model forecasts; lighter purple shows the range of 95% of all model forecasts. NOAA Climate.gov image from CPC data.


    What the future holds

    Enough looking back! Let’s look forward! As we’ve discussed before, making ENSO forecasts in spring is especially complicated. It’s a time of transition, and small changes in conditions can have large effects down the road. This month’s ENSO forecast finds it most likely that neutral conditions will last through the summer and into early fall. Most of the climate models support this.

    What about next winter?? The forecast possibility of El Niño nears 50% by the winter, as many of the computer models are trending to warmer tropical sea surface conditions in the later months of 2018. In the historical record (dating back to 1950) we’ve had 7 two-year La Niña events. These events have been followed by El Niño twice: 1972 and 2009. The probability of remaining in neutral conditions is about 40%, something that has happened three times in the record: 1956, 1985, and 2012. Less likely is a return to La Niña conditions—that scenario is given about a 10% chance. A three-peat La Niña isn’t impossible, at all, and has occurred twice in the historical record: 1973–76, and 1998–2001.

    One thing we can be certain of is that forecasters are looking forward to next month, when the models are increasingly getting past the spring predictability barrier and are more reliable. See you then!

    May 2018 ENSO update: Thar she goes | NOAA Climate.gov

    As we transition to ENSO neutral, going to be interesting in seeing what the temperature does.
     
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  3. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    Climate models are ghey
     
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  4. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    LOL...

    Your going to be very disappointed...

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    Cold water at depth and at the surface is going to ruin your day... Do you see what is coming up the south american coast to the equator? -2 deg C water... Your upward trend is going to be very short lived..
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2018
  5. Jessica123
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    Jessica123 BANNED

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    Too you science is gay! It doesn't surprise me that you think this way either as you're jealous of people much more intelligent then you. lol

    Short term climate models when dealing with the ENSO! Not perfect but hardly gay as they do get it right at times.
     
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  6. eagle1462010
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    eagle1462010 Platinum Member

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  7. Jessica123
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    Jessica123 BANNED

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    Lol, showing your knowledge on the enso I see. lol, lol, lol

    Please explain why an nino isn't going to form later this year?

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    See that column of warmer water moving from west to east around 100-150 meters? That surfaces you can expect an el nino.
     
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  8. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    Old crock is going to very disappointed..


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  9. eagle1462010
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    eagle1462010 Platinum Member

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    My god.........sarcasm escapes you again.................geesh..............
     
  10. Jessica123
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    Jessica123 BANNED

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    Watch that warm anomaly around 100-150 meters below the surface, surface as time goes on. Why exactly will that surprise old rocks? There's no hint of any cold pool or the likely hood that it won't surface.
     
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