Billy_Bob
Diamond Member
Bingo....As even with the Muller analysis, temperature spikes like we're experiencing are relatively rare.
What I gather from Richard Muller's assessment of Michael Mann's temperature spike graph (the hockey stick) is that the math used to chart that graph was flawed.
What I gather from my understanding of paleoclimatology methods (interpreting tree ring and ice core data) is that they aren't 100% accurate. We know that tree ring data is unreliable because it didn't respond to 20th Century warming of northern latitudes. We know that ice core data isn't totally reliable because we get different data from Antarctica than we do from Greenland. Also, we have no ice core data from most of the planet's surface. That's a lot of missing data. We can't say definitively that there wasn't a 30 year stretch of warming during the Eemian period (the last interglacial period) comparable or even more extreme than the years 1979 to 2009. To do so would be an argument over less than a degree Celsius and there's too many blind spots to go back 120,000 years and attempt to do that.
All dat true. Many problems with with these sweeping proxy studies purporting to compare climate history to our last 50 years of empirical experience. But the largest prob is the resulting time resolurion that you get after selecting combining and averaging all these variuous weak proxies from different parts of the globe. Not anywhere NEAR good enough to see 40 or 50 year spikes. Especially on stupid extensions to get a GLOBAL average. You can however usena particular single type of proxy from a single area of the globe to get a pretty good snapshot of local histories.
The average proxy can only get between 150 and 300 years (even the ice cores). Spikes within these time frames are not long enough to create visualization.
It reminds me of Mann's deception on temperatures, where he used 1000 years, 500 years, 100 years and then spliced on his tree rings at 15 year plots... This is a statisticians parlor trick to make you think that something is wrong when it is not..