RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates At the bottom of the above link is the tale of the tape. The GOP showing an insignificant +0.5 average spread lead. President Obama is proving to be a tough nut to crack for the GOP. I think it will all depend on the independent vote, or at least which party can anchor the independent vote. Both parties will be forced to move to the center on both the economic & social issues. This POTUS election should prove both a close one as well as an interesting one.