For those who think I don't ever criticize Democratic pollsters....

[Statistikhengst]

...think again.

PPP (D) just released an interesting poll out of Mississippi, post run-off election between Republican incumbent Thad Cochran and Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_715.pdf

691 RV (of those 691, 501 are Republican RV, all of whom voted in the runoff), MoE = +/-3.7 for the general polling data and +/-4.4 for questions asked only of Republican voters.

The demographics of the polling group itself (p. 3 of the .pdf file) look correct and in-line with current demographic data from Mississippi - no fast punches there.

Now, most of the questions were the usual fare, and actually, important data points:

In the general election 2014, Cochran (R), according to PPP (D), has a solid lead over Childers (D), by +16:

Thad Cochran (R-inc) 40
Travis Childers (D) 24.
Shawn O'Hara (I - Reform Party) 5

That leaves 19% undecided voters in an incumbent race where the incumbent should have 100% name recognition. I wrote on a number of threads that if Cochran wins the runoff, he is likely to easily win the GE in November, and lo and behold, a +16 lead is almost impossible for Childers to overtake, especially in a state where the President's favorability is at -15 (39 approve / 54 disapprove).


Of the 5% for Independent O'Hara (a perennial candidate in MS electoral politics, since the early 1990s), when asked whether they could lean toward either Cochran or Childers, the break is almost identical to the GE statistic for Cochran and Childers: 41% of O'Hare supporters say they would break for Cochran in a two-man race, only 25% say they would break for Childers. So, with or without O'Hare in the race, it looks like a landslide +16 or so for incumbent Cochran.

The race is Cochran's to lose.

Interestingly enough, Roger Wicker (R) won re-election to the Senate in Mississippi in 2012 by +16.6%. In 2008, Cochran (R) won his re-election by +22.87%.

Just as a hypothetical, were the runoff race from last month to somehow be overturned, here is how PPP (D) sees a McDaniel /Childers race in the Fall:

Childers (D) 37
McDaniel (R-Tea) 36
O'Hare 4
undecided 23

Margin: Childers +1 (statistical tie, but not a mathematical absolute tie)

This, too, is in line with other polling that had been showing a potential GE race McDaniels vs. Childers to be a very tight race.

When asked who rightfully won the Republican nomination for Senate, 58% said "Cochran", 29% said "McDaniel" and 13% were unsure. Margin: Cochran +19

Similarly, when asked if McDaniel should concede the runnoff race to Cochran, 50% said "yes", 35% said "no" and 15% were undecided.


PPP (D) also asked Republicans only, if they could redo the runoff, how they would vote:

Regardless of who you voted for last month, if the Republican runoff for Senate was today, would you vote for Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel?

Thad Cochran ................................................. 51%
Chris McDaniel ............................................... 46%
Not sure ......................................................... 3%

Margin: Cochran +5


(Note: in the internals, it says Cochran 52%, McDaniel 46%, margin: Cochran +6. So, either there is a typo in the mainlines or in the internals. This kind of error is a rarity and I have not seen it happen before with PPP.)

So far, so good.





And then PPP (D) jumped off the cliff with a question that I cannot ethically agree with.

Of the Republicans only within the polling group, PPP (D) asked the following question:


Q10 (asked only of Republican respondents):

If there were another Civil War today, would you side with the Confederate States of America or the United States of America?

The Confederate States ........................................... 29%
The United States ........................................... 50%
Not sure........................................... 21%

Then, within the internals, it looks like this:



According to PPP's internals, 37% of McDaniel supporters say they would prefer to support the CSA in a potential second Civil War.


There is just so much wrong with this question on so many fronts, I don't know where to begin.

1.) I believe that no one, and I mean, no one, should be talking about a potential second Civil War within our Union.

2.) The polling group of Republicans was 501 RV. And 46% of that would be Cochran supporters, that makes for all of 230 RV. That is too small a group.

3.) This kind of question is a form of baiting, and often used in push polling. I would have no problem in the world were a pollster to decide to measure the attitudes of Southerners, for instance, about their southern heritage and poll a huge group from all of the Southern states and publish the results. But to put this kind of question in an election poll? No way.

I wrote Dean Debnam from PPP (D) a pretty scathing letter and let him know what I think. This kind of question does not cut it, in my book.


Similarly, Rasmussen put out this poll on July 13th:

68% Think Election Rules Rigged for Incumbents - Rasmussen Reports?

1,000 LV, Moe = +/-3.0

More voters than ever now say U.S. elections are rigged to favor incumbents and are unfair to voters.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters now say American elections are not fair to voters, up from 46% in April and the highest finding in surveys since 2004. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think elections are fair, but 14% are not sure.

Questions - Elections - July 9-10, 2014 - Rasmussen Reports?

1* Are American elections fair to voters?

2* Members of Congress almost always get re-elected. Is this because they do a good job representing their constituents or is it because the election rules are rigged to benefit Members of Congress.

3* Would a group of people selected at random from the phone book do a better job addressing the nation’s problems than the current Congress?

4* The Declaration of Independence says that governments derive their authority from the consent of the governed. Does the federal government today have the consent of the governed?

5* Whom does the average Congressman listen to the most—the voters he or she represents or party leaders in Congress?

Now, I find the poll distasteful and once again, Rasmussen is trying to shape public discourse, but I cannot (read this carefully now, Conservatives, before you jump) criticize it in the same way because the questions are not attached to an election poll. That makes for a big difference.



Now, PPP (D) has an excellent track record in polling, something proven here, mathematically:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?


But even a good pollster can screw-up now and then, and with this question, PPP (D) screwed-up, imo.


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Your thoughts are welcomed.

 

[rightwinger]

Where the black vote in Mississippi goes should be interesting

 

[mamooth]

Cochran so far is keeping a good portion of the black vote that he picked up in the (R) primary, hence his big lead against the Democrat. It will be interesting to see if he remains champion of the black man.

 

[Statistikhengst]

This proves in many ways that all politics is, at the end of the day, local.

There are a lot of Democrats, and also Black Democrats, who like Thad Cochran (R) and are willing to vote for him.

I respect their decision, for it's their state and they know their incumbent.

That being said, Travis Childers (D), about the most Conservative that a Democrat can be and still be called a Democrat, is not going to go down without a fight.

 

[rightwinger]

Cochran so far is keeping a good portion of the black vote that he picked up in the (R) primary, hence his big lead against the Democrat. It will be interesting to see if he remains champion of the black man.

There is nothing that says a Republican can't get the black vote

It is just that most refuse to make an effort

 

[Statistikhengst]

I just want to point out that the potential Civil War II question that PPP (D) posed was, imo, way out of bounds.