ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

[ScienceRocks]

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.

ENSO-neutral continued during February 2014, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continuing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs increasing near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). Overall, the weekly Niño indices were variable during the month, with most indices remaining less than -0.5oC (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave increased the oceanic heat content (Fig. 3) and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). In addition, toward the end of the month, strong low-level westerly winds re-appeared over the western equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia and the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

 

[Old Rocks]

I think 2014 is going to go down as one of the more interesting weather years.

 

[Abraham3]

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave increased the oceanic heat content and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific.

Well, that's just crazy. How could the ocean's heat content go up when Chicago is experiencing RECORD colds?!?!? What's the matter with you Matthew? Don't you know how science works?

;-)

 

[SSDD]

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave increased the oceanic heat content and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific.

Well, that's just crazy. How could the ocean's heat content go up when Chicago is experiencing RECORD colds?!?!? What's the matter with you Matthew? Don't you know how science works?

;-)

Don't try satire, you are no good at it. Fear is the killer of good satire and you are afraid of your own shadow.

So if El Nino raises its ugly head and we get a new warming trend for a few years, will you blame that on AGW or will you recognize the fact that natural variability started the warming trend, stopped it for damned near 20 years and then started it again till such time as it stops it again?

No human fingerprint anywhere....all natural variability.

 

[Moonglow]

Does that mean rain or no rain???

 

[mamooth]

So if El Nino raises its ugly head and we get a new warming trend for a few years, will you blame that on AGW or will you recognize the fact that natural variability started the warming trend, stopped it for damned near 20 years and then started it again till such time as it stops it again?

Being I'm honest and intelligent, I won't be able to ignore the rising baseline that the ENSO fluctuations ride on, so there's no way I'd be able to say something so incorrect.

At least SSDD does understand how the "There's no warming!" claim is going to be indefensible soon, and is thus getting his excuses in place beforehand. Other denialists should take a lesson.