Watching La Nina update thread

[ScienceRocks]

It has finally developed! Might hold down the global temperatures some going into 2017.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 November 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

 

[ScienceRocks]

Philip Klotzbach on Twitter

So it will remain weak and then move back towards neutral.

 

[Old Rocks]

Click for high-resolution image. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center


In the meantime, going to take a lot of cooling to make up for what we see happening in the Arctic and Antarctic.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Looks like a moderate La Niña and it is sustaining. Other regions are now dropping in temp rapidly indicating that it will intensify.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Now between that and the Arctic, that looks like some real cooling. Silly Billy, don't you ever get tired of being shown to be 180 degrees out of sync with the temperatures.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Warms a little more to -0.4C this week

Hell of a way to start out a la nina. damn.

 

[ding]

It has finally developed! Might hold down the global temperatures some going into 2017.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 November 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

Hey, Matthew, are you ever going to tell me what you believe atmospheric CO2 will be in the year 2100?

 

[ScienceRocks]

It has finally developed! Might hold down the global temperatures some going into 2017.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 November 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

Hey, Matthew, are you ever going to tell me what you believe atmospheric CO2 will be in the year 2100?

lol isn't the topic of this thread. Of course, loserterians don't have the ability to understand that.

But I'd guess around 600ppm

 

[ScienceRocks]

A relatively warm tongue of deep water can be seen forming in the Western Eq Pac in the first attached TAO Subsurface Temp & Temp Anom Profiles issued today; which appears to be warming the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom as indicated by the second image issued by NOAA today.

 

[ScienceRocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf



Code: Select all

Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

 

[Old Rocks]

Click for high-resolution image. —Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Looks like the weak to non-existent La Nina is not helping with the sea ice at either pole.

 

[ding]

It has finally developed! Might hold down the global temperatures some going into 2017.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 November 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States.


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

Hey, Matthew, are you ever going to tell me what you believe atmospheric CO2 will be in the year 2100?

lol isn't the topic of this thread. Of course, loserterians don't have the ability to understand that.

But I'd guess around 600ppm

Wow... that's a good guess. How much associated temperature rise would you expect from an increase from 400 ppm to 600 ppm.

Why don't you think GHG are connected to this topic?

 

[Old Rocks]

Physics, dingleberry, physics.

 

[ding]

Physics, dingleberry, physics.

Do you know what radiative forcing is?

 

[Old Rocks]

The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

There, educate yourself, Dingleberry.

 

[ding]

The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

There, educate yourself, Dingleberry.

I'm pretty educated. Can you calculate the associated temperature change when atmospheric CO2 goes from 280 ppm to 400 ppm?

What is your background in science? I'm an engineer.

 

[mamooth]

What is your background in science? I'm an engineer.

Which means you are not a scientist, and that you likely have little understanding of how science works. Engineering and science are different meta-disciplines, and engineers are not trained in how to do science.

Try not to display too much Engineer's Arrogance Syndrome. That's when an engineer assumes the entire world is entirely explainable by his own tiny technical specialty, whatever that may be. For example, we have one engineer here who constantly assumes the planet's climate has to act like a simple electrical circuit.

Also, don't play stupid games with us. If you've got a point to make with your question, make it directly, instead of asking us over and over. After all, we know the answer, and we're starting to think you don't.

 

[ding]

What is your background in science? I'm an engineer.

Which means you are not a scientist, and that you likely have little understanding of how science works. Engineering and science are different meta-disciplines, and engineers are not trained in how to do science.

Try not to display too much Engineer's Arrogance Syndrome. That's when an engineer assumes the entire world is entirely explainable by his own tiny technical specialty, whatever that may be. For example, we have one engineer here who constantly assumes the planet's climate has to act like a simple electrical circuit.

Also, don't play stupid games with us. If you've got a point to make with your question, make it directly, instead of asking us over and over. After all, we know the answer, and we're starting to think you don't.

Engineering is the commercial application of science. What is your background?

 

[ding]

What is your background in science? I'm an engineer.

Which means you are not a scientist, and that you likely have little understanding of how science works. Engineering and science are different meta-disciplines, and engineers are not trained in how to do science.

Try not to display too much Engineer's Arrogance Syndrome. That's when an engineer assumes the entire world is entirely explainable by his own tiny technical specialty, whatever that may be. For example, we have one engineer here who constantly assumes the planet's climate has to act like a simple electrical circuit.

Also, don't play stupid games with us. If you've got a point to make with your question, make it directly, instead of asking us over and over. After all, we know the answer, and we're starting to think you don't.

Funny how you had no problem with Old Rock's condescending attitude towards me, isn't it? And given that he was the one who started this with his physics and educate yourself argument, I'd say that my response was appropriate.

Can you calculate the radiatve forcing of CO2? Because if you can't how in the world could you possibly understand what you are accepting as gospel?

 

[Crick]

Mamooth is right. You've been behaving like a dick. I suspect you've actually got things to bring to the discussion here, but you might have started by walking in and saying hello. Instead, you assumed we were all a bunch of illiterate yahoos and began lecturing us with last year's fish wrap.