Electoral Map Math Favors Romney

[Conservative]

Electoral Map Math Favors Romney - 2012 Decoded

For Romney, the most encouraging findings come out of Michigan, where several polls showed the race between Obama and Romney in a statistical dead heat. The findings were echoed today by NBC/Marist, which found Obama with a tenuous 48 percent job approval rating and only leading Romney, 44 to 39 percent. Obama won the state by 16 points in 2008. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Wednesday's Quinnipiac poll showed Obama with a 45 percent job approval rating, and only leading Romney, 45 to 39 percent. That's downright worrisome in a state, with 20 electoral votes, that the president can't afford to lose.

Still, the overall state-by-state numbers are good news for the Romney campaign. Obama's job approval is under 50 percent in all of them, and is in perilous territory in several must-win states. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the electoral math is looking better for Romney than Obama, given that several electorally-rich Democratic-friendly states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- now look like toss-ups.

he biggest test for Romney will come during the GOP convention and the fall debates when most voters will be tuning in for the first time - the poll numbers will probably be quite stable until then. If he can convince voters he's a credible challenger, the undecided voters (a majority of whom view the president's job performance negatively) are more likely to move into his corner.

 

[rightwinger]

Romney still trails in the Electoral College and overall in swing states

He has a long way to go. He will need a gamechanger and today was not it

 

[Chris]

Obama would have to be caught in bed with a live man or a dead women to lose this election.

 

[Conservative]

Obama would have to be caught in bed with a live man or a dead women to lose this election.

Are you as certain of that as you are that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker will lose the recall election... oh wait, he won that.

Well, are you as sure of that as you are that Walker will be indicted and convicted of... oh wait, nothing there either.

Never mind.

 

[rightwinger]

Four months to go and Romney still is way behind in the Electoral vote

Let the countdown begin

 

[Liability]

Obama would have to be caught in bed with a live man or a dead women to lose this election.

^ said with ALL the predictive abilities of the guy who assured us that Walker was going to lose the recall election.

 

[8537]

Looking at recent polls, if the election were held today it appears Obama would win by a small margin.

The election's not today An awful lot could change between now and November. If yesterday's ISM numbers become a pattern Romney will gain a lot of votes.

 

[salem.hills]

I'm not worried it was third biggest shift in power in the 2010 midterms in our history. And they've lost almost every election since then. The people's push is towards fiscal accountability not talking about Obamacare or gun running or the depression were under doesn't help the nanny state people.

 

[Avatar4321]

Map should be more favorable to Romney. The census redistributed EC votes to traditionally Red States.

who knows what will happen in November though.

 

[Old Rocks]

Over 330 electorial votes is not a small margin.

 

[rightwinger]

Looking at recent polls, if the election were held today it appears Obama would win by a small margin.

The election's not today An awful lot could change between now and November. If yesterday's ISM numbers become a pattern Romney will gain a lot of votes.

If the election were held today Obama would win 334 to 206 in electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Romney is not even close and will need a gamechanger to overtake the President

 

[Inthemiddle]

It's very difficult to be able to predict the outcome at this point. This time 2008, McCain seemed White House bound and Obama was far behind. Hell, we couldn't even be entirely sure that Obama was indeed the nominee.

 

[Conservative]

Looking at recent polls, if the election were held today it appears Obama would win by a small margin.

The election's not today An awful lot could change between now and November. If yesterday's ISM numbers become a pattern Romney will gain a lot of votes.

If the election were held today Obama would win 334 to 206 in electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Romney is not even close and will need a gamechanger to overtake the President

depends on which electoral map you look at. While most have Obama ahead, I am unaware of one that has him at 334, and several have Romney within 20.

 

[copsnrobbers]

Wait until September when the Conservatives being telling the American people the truth.

Liberalism will die with Obby. Have faith patriots, we will win.

 

[konradv]

Decoded?

What an overused word, like anything ending in 'gate'. They're trying to fool you into thinking they have secret knowledge.

 

[rightwinger]

Looking at recent polls, if the election were held today it appears Obama would win by a small margin.

The election's not today An awful lot could change between now and November. If yesterday's ISM numbers become a pattern Romney will gain a lot of votes.

If the election were held today Obama would win 334 to 206 in electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Romney is not even close and will need a gamechanger to overtake the President

depends on which electoral map you look at. While most have Obama ahead, I am unaware of one that has him at 334, and several have Romney within 20.

Real Clear is an average of all polls

It has Obama ahead 221 to 181 in non-swing states
They also have Obama ahead in eight of ten swing states giving Obama 334 if the election were held today

 

[swizzlee]

Other factors that favor Romney.................

Presidents with a job approval rating less than 50 do not traditionally win elections. Obama should be at least 50 in those battleground states in order to win

The polls will change in early September when pollsters start using Likely Voters.
LV polls are traditionally more accurate than RV polls by about 3 points.

Undecideds traditionally break for the challenger.

When you consider those factors in today's polls, Romney looks much better than Obama.

 

[Inthemiddle]

Presidents with a job approval rating less than 50 do not traditionally win elections. Obama should be at least 50 in those battleground states in order to win

At this same moment in 2004, Bush's approval ratings were less than 50% and only climbed higher (just a smidgen above 50%) in the face of the lackluster candidacy of John Kerry.

Presidential Approval Ratings History - Interactive Comparison Graph - WSJ.com

Undecideds traditionally break for the challenger.

This assertion needs substantiation.

 

[rightwinger]

Presidents with a job approval rating less than 50 do not traditionally win elections. Obama should be at least 50 in those battleground states in order to win

At this same moment in 2004, Bush's approval ratings were less than 50% and only climbed higher (just a smidgen above 50%) in the face of the lackluster candidacy of John Kerry.

Presidential Approval Ratings History - Interactive Comparison Graph - WSJ.com

Undecideds traditionally break for the challenger.

This assertion needs substantiation.

Especially in light of the fact that incumbents overwhelmingly win

 

[Conservative]

If the election were held today Obama would win 334 to 206 in electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Romney is not even close and will need a gamechanger to overtake the President

depends on which electoral map you look at. While most have Obama ahead, I am unaware of one that has him at 334, and several have Romney within 20.

Real Clear is an average of all polls

It has Obama ahead 221 to 181 in non-swing states
They also have Obama ahead in eight of ten swing states giving Obama 334 if the election were held today

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/232395-cnn-poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-in-15-battleground-states.html#post5559048

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent.