Does the Double Dip begin on Friday?

[FireFly]

There was & is no gdp growth for the past 2 years!!!

It was all increasing debt at a faster pace than gdp!!!

 

[william the wie]

A few points:

With the government economic stats representing thoroughly cooked books they are effectively worthless. While SGS is the most famous attempt to correct deception increasingly the mere fact of fraudulent data being used has been undermining trust since at least the Reagan era. So discounting all data as happy news is undermining any credibility.

Now that S&P 1040 has been broken no one knows what the bottom is.

Obama managed the never before seen stunt of the rest of the G-8 and G-20 telling a US president to go play while the grown-ups handle things so that's a confidence builder.

As to double-dip with the GDP growth numbers known to be bogus it is unlikely that actual GDP growth ever happened. Therefore this is just a continuation not a return.

 

[editec]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

It's a DEPRESSION. I am depressed because I had to fire people & I feel depressed about it & they do to. My other workers are depressed because they had to take on more responsibilities. I am also depressed that my unemployment insurance payments keep climbing & my state is to broke to pay me my tax refund they owe me. I only got an IOU. I have many clients that have not paid me in a long time. I am also very depressed about the massive new pile of 1099 tax forms that the healthcare will force me to file.

That is depressing.

Small businesses are really taking it on the chin.

And small businesses make up about 88% of the workforce, too.

That's VERY depressing, Kissmy

 

[Tech_Esq]

I like to go with the economist. 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession. We've had positive GDP for about 3 qtrs now.

GDP is short term. Deficits are long term.
National debt was 40 per cent of GDP 2 years ago.
CBO said today that national debt will be 62 per cent by this years' end (already now near 60 per cent).
A 20 per cent rise in national debt in 2 years IS astounding!
No GDP can keep pace with this rapidly rising national debt.
Therefore, GDP, taken alone is not a recovery/recession indicator.

Further it took George W. Bush four years to add 2 trillion to the national debt. In his second four years he added a bit more than that.

The current Administration and Congress is on track to add 14 trillion to the national debt by the end of eight years if they continue to spend money at the rate they have spent it the first sixteen months of this Administration.

There isn't an economy in the world strong enough to keep up with that. And if we don't turn it around soon, there won't be any economies in developed countries that are not stronger than ours.

That's the plan exactly! Then there will be a crisis and things will need to get fixed because of all this unregulated capitalism.

Market failure you understand. Only one thing can fix stuff when the market fails (any first year law student can tell you this because that's what we teach in law school these days.) The market fails and government must step in to regulate and decide what's "fair". Who cares what lawyers think in a discussion about about economics? Well, who's in power -- lawyers.

Nope, things are moving along nicely. The economy is just like the oil leak only it doesn't turn the water colors. Something to stand by and observe while the crisis deepens.

 

[Mini 14]

That's the plan exactly! Then there will be a crisis and things will need to get fixed because of all this unregulated capitalism.

Market failure you understand. Only one thing can fix stuff when the market fails (any first year law student can tell you this because that's what we teach in law school these days.) The market fails and government must step in to regulate and decide what's "fair". Who cares what lawyers think in a discussion about about economics? Well, who's in power -- lawyers.

Nope, things are moving along nicely. The economy is just like the oil leak only it doesn't turn the water colors. Something to stand by and observe while the crisis deepens.

This is spot-on, but unfortunately......

sheep can't read

 

[manu1959]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

interesting opinion....what industry do you work in....are you an employee or a business owner.....

tell me what industry has been driving the us economy since the dot com bust....

 

[topspin]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

interesting opinion....what industry do you work in....are you an employee or a business owner.....

tell me what industry has been driving the us economy since the dot com bust....

I'm in the oil business and it's been real good.

 

[antagon]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

interesting opinion....what industry do you work in....are you an employee or a business owner.....

tell me what industry has been driving the us economy since the dot com bust....

credit and mortgage banking. have you been paying attention?

 

[topspin]

High tech has been great. Compare apple and Microsoft now vs a decade ago.

 

[Foxfyre]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

interesting opinion....what industry do you work in....are you an employee or a business owner.....

tell me what industry has been driving the us economy since the dot com bust....

credit and mortgage banking. have you been paying attention?

But that was based on the housing boom/bubble. Somewhere early in the Clinton administration, some used a corrupted interpretation of the CRA to push high risk loans, and that continued all through the Bush administration until the bubble started leaking in 2007 and finally burst in 2008. Without that, we wouldn't have had all the poorly conceived and managed credit and banking activity that couldn't be sustained once the defaults began and credit froze up.

One of the most disgusting elements now is that the current administration is boasting about fixes by putting band-aids on this or that while they have not addressed the core causes of the housing bubble nor done anything to keep it from happening again.

 

[topspin]

Household wealth is up 6 trillion since the bottom. The American economies potential is way better than you guys think it is. For the people who don't understand what GDP means. I can't help you.

 

[manu1959]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

interesting opinion....what industry do you work in....are you an employee or a business owner.....

tell me what industry has been driving the us economy since the dot com bust....

credit and mortgage banking. have you been paying attention?

yes ... i was wondering if topspin had been....

so tell me what is the driver now and what will be the driver in the next cycle....

 

[topspin]

Manu I know lots of people have been struggling. Ever hear the rich are getting richer? It's never been more true. I first heard it 25 years ago and decided I'd join the rich. What will lead. Tech, energy, banking is my guess but something always does. If your looking to be sad you can always find something even in the best of times.

 

[Mini 14]

High tech has been great. Compare apple and Microsoft now vs a decade ago.

Microsoft is virtually unchanged, and Apple was flat until the iPhone (why Apple hasn't split is beyond me). To say "high tech has been great" is not only wrong, its weird.

I've had MSFT since it went public. Obviously, I've done very well, but nothing of consequence in the past 10 years, and I'll be selling all of it before the end of the year. I *may* buy Apple, but I'm betting on Verizon as much as Apple in that deal.

IT is going to take a serious beating when the economy busts (even worse than it has in the past 5 years). It always does because no companies put money into R&D during an economic downtime. IT is entirely too volatile in a fragile economy.

 

[manu1959]

Manu I know lots of people have been struggling. Ever hear the rich are getting richer? It's never been more true. I first heard it 25 years ago and decided I'd join the rich. What will lead. Tech, energy, banking is my guess but something always does. If your looking to be sad you can always find something even in the best of times.

yes lots of people are struggeling and the rich always do well...it is why they are rich....

tell me what will employ the american labor force that is currently underemployed....there have been two / three "industrial revolutions" of sorts that have driven our econmy and at the time none could be outsourced....tech energy and banking can all be outsourced now....we do not have that competitve edge any longer and any labour required is all union and cannot compete against international labour costs....

 

[topspin]

Yes Microsoft price is flat but I bet it's sales are way higher. Ie the pe has compressed. Both are way higher in the s&p ranks. The economy is recovering. China buys more cars than we do and in 5 years will equal the rest of the world combined. Do you realize the coming pressure on all forms of energy.

 

[Zander]

Household wealth is up 6 trillion since the bottom. The American economies potential is way better than you guys think it is. For the people who don't understand what GDP means. I can't help you.

I can't decide if your the "Kool Aid man"

or Baghdad Bob...."The economy is Fine. Nothing to worry about".

 

[Foxfyre]

High tech has been great. Compare apple and Microsoft now vs a decade ago.

Microsoft is virtually unchanged, and Apple was flat until the iPhone (why Apple hasn't split is beyond me). To say "high tech has been great" is not only wrong, its weird.

I've had MSFT since it went public. Obviously, I've done very well, but nothing of consequence in the past 10 years, and I'll be selling all of it before the end of the year. I *may* buy Apple, but I'm betting on Verizon as much as Apple in that deal.

IT is going to take a serious beating when the economy busts (even worse than it has in the past 5 years). It always does because no companies put money into R&D during an economic downtime. IT is entirely too volatile in a fragile economy.

True re tech. We've done fairly well with a few carefully selected moderate risk funds, but we're otherwise staying away from stock purchases there as everything is so volatile. When the Nasdaq crashed 'everybody' said it would never ever see such heights again. And I didn't believe them because the market always comes back, right? Well the Nasdaq hasn't. And I'm beginning to believe now that it probably won't anytime in the foreseeable future.

 

[topspin]

Manu I know lots of people have been struggling. Ever hear the rich are getting richer? It's never been more true. I first heard it 25 years ago and decided I'd join the rich. What will lead. Tech, energy, banking is my guess but something always does. If your looking to be sad you can always find something even in the best of times.

yes lots of people are struggeling and the rich always do well...it is why they are rich....

tell me what will employ the american labor force that is currently underemployed....there have been two / three "industrial revolutions" of sorts that have driven our econmy and at the time none could be outsourced....tech energy and banking can all be outsourced now....we do not have that competitve edge any longer and any labour required is all union and cannot compete against international labour costs....

Decide to be rich! 80 percent of millionaires are first generation.
The mobile Internet and wireless are booming and will continue. It takes smart investing and research. Don't hang onto buggy wh makers as the autos are booming.

 

[manu1959]

Manu I know lots of people have been struggling. Ever hear the rich are getting richer? It's never been more true. I first heard it 25 years ago and decided I'd join the rich. What will lead. Tech, energy, banking is my guess but something always does. If your looking to be sad you can always find something even in the best of times.

yes lots of people are struggeling and the rich always do well...it is why they are rich....

tell me what will employ the american labor force that is currently underemployed....there have been two / three "industrial revolutions" of sorts that have driven our econmy and at the time none could be outsourced....tech energy and banking can all be outsourced now....we do not have that competitve edge any longer and any labour required is all union and cannot compete against international labour costs....

Decide to be rich! 80 percent of millionaires are first generation.
The mobile Internet and wireless are booming and will continue. It takes smart investing and research. Don't hang onto buggy wh makers as the autos are booming.

yes they are clients of mine....there is a point when the market will be saturated and it will end ... further they are already expanding as fast as they are able....they hit maximum speed with respect to process as possible several years ago....they have maxed out their internal ability to expand at a faster rate and thus employee more people ...and i don't see 100's of 1000's of jobs being created by those two market segements for that reason....