Does the Double Dip begin on Friday?

[Foxfyre]

No way on double dip. 83,000 more private company jobs and may revised up 15,000 more.

Well according to the accounting so far, 83,000 jobs with His Arrogance taking credit for every new hire, and of course credits the stimulus package. So by my calculations, 83,000 new jobs have cost we the taxpayers something over 58 billion.

You give me 58 billion to work with, and I could have created 11,500,000 jobs at $50,000 per year for a year. It certainly would have allowed us to extend unemployment insurance for the hardcore employed for a few more years.

Do you really believe we've gotten our money's worth so far?

 

[Mini 14]

No way on double dip. 83,000 more private company jobs and may revised up 15,000 more.

I'm going to strongly disagree with you here.

This report has all the earmarks of impending doom.

I'll go ahead and put it out there. The double dip began this week, and was marked today. This jobs report is about as ugly as was predicted, and the fact that unemployment has "decreased" is the kiss of death. He's got 30 days to do something amazing, and I don't think he has it in him.

I am not looking forward to the next 4 months. I believe it is going to get very, very ugly.

 

[topspin]

No way. But differences make markets. congress extended the housing credit and they will but a recoverey one way or the other. Both next GDP numbers will be above 2 percent.

 

[Mini 14]

No way. But differences make markets. congress extended the housing credit and they will but a recoverey one way or the other. Both next GDP numbers will be above 2 percent.

I never wanted to be wrong more in my life.

But the numbers today were awful, and scary as hell.

There are a LOT of people simply "giving up."

That ain't good.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong.

 

[topspin]

A lot of people look for the worst when their guy is not in. Jobs are fine but not great. GDP is going to be above 2 percent.

 

[Mini 14]

A lot of people look for the worst when their guy is not in. Jobs are fine but not great. GDP is going to be above 2 percent.

You do realize 650,000 people gave up looking for a job, and were dropped from the stats, right?

That isn't "looking for the worst," its "understanding how to interpret the report."

So 83,000 jobs were created, and 650,000 people quit looking for work, and that's "fine but not great?"

Economics has changed a LOT since I was in school.

 

[topspin]

The economy can and will grow while more people quit looking. There's this thing called globalization going on. Lower skilled/ educated workers are going to see it a lot worse for decade regardless of party rule.

 

[Mini 14]

The economy can and will grow while more people quit looking. There's this thing called globalization going on. Lower skilled/ educated workers are going to see it a lot worse for decade regardless of party rule.

Well then its official....

Economics has changed a LOT since they taught it to me.

There are people who get rich when an economy sucks wind. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about the Economy itself.

Again, I hope I'm wrong (I really, REALLY do).

But the report today should scare the shit out of anyone with an even basic grasp of economic theory.

 

[topspin]

Well i know all about getting rich. And the rich will get richer and the total economy grows. That doesn't mean the lowest 2/5's won't do worse.

 

[Zander]

Depends how much your willing to lose?

Assume an unwillingness to lose anything.

Now, where does one park $30K for 180 days that gives one a rate of return greater than the miserable 0.25% banks are returning?

Thee only risk-free investment is US Treasuries. Go with 90 day t-bills - take the measly return and be happy you didn't lose anything.

When we are in a deflationary cycle, as we are in now, cash has a huge return. You can buy much more stock, bonds, real estate, or commodities when the price of those drop by 25% or more. Once the deflation is behind us, then you jump back into a balanced portfolio....now you need to be DEFENSIVE. Hold cash.

Good Luck!

 

[Zander]

I'm a stock guy only, can't help you on the blue haired granny saving accounts.

Every expert in the world recommends at least 20% in bonds - most recommend far more (your age in bonds is very common). Bonds lower volatility and increase returns. Bonds outperformed Stocks over the last ten years period and the last 20 year period. And they did it with out any of the gut wrenching market swings stock investors went through.

You'd do well to rethink your strategy - at your age (you said you were 50?) you should consider a 60/40 strategy- 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Personally, I have held 60/40 since I was in my twenties and I have never regretted it.

 

[topspin]

I'm a stock guy only, can't help you on the blue haired granny saving accounts.

Every expert in the world recommends at least 20% in bonds - most recommend far more (your age in bonds is very common). Bonds lower volatility and increase returns. Bonds outperformed Stocks over the last ten years period and the last 20 year period. And they did it with out any of the gut wrenching market swings stock investors went through.

You'd do well to rethink your strategy - at your age (you said you were 50?) you should consider a 60/40 strategy- 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Personally, I have held 60/40 since I was in my twenties and I have never regretted it.

That's very wise of you. I've done substantially better than the market or bonds mostly with big oil. I'm considering going conservative in retirement. I've got njust under 5 years to work