Does the Double Dip begin on Friday?

[Mini 14]

Labor data due out Friday, and unemployment is expected to rise again. Friday and Monday could be disastrous days for the market.

How low do you think it will fall? Will it get to 9000? Even lower?

 

[topspin]

I'd call it another recession not a double dip.
Consensus is for 150,000 non gov jobs with the total being neg 100,000 due to census workers being done.
If we get less than 100,000 market falls 150 pts
less than 50,000 market falls 350 pts
negative 50,000 or more market falls 550 pts

 

[editec]

For most Americans the depression we're in really hasn't abated.

It might be a double dip for the economy since its the wealthy whose activity is so important to what consitutes the national ecomony.

But for about 90% of us?

Hell! ~ the depression start long before the GDP started offically crapping out.

 

[topspin]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

 

[Barb]

For most Americans the depression we're in really hasn't abated.

It might be a double dip for the economy since its the wealthy whose activity is so important to what consitutes the national ecomony.

But for about 90% of us?

Hell! ~ the depression start long before the GDP started offically crapping out.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to editec again.

 

[editec]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

Would you more comfortable calling it a recession?

Okay, call it that if that suits you.

Depression was the euphemism they invented (in the 30s) so that it wasn't called A PANIC like it had been in the last time the economy melted down (in the late 19th century, FYI)

Then recession was the euphemism we invented because the name DEPRESSION scared people.

Call it what you will, sport, it is what it is.

And if we counted unemployment NOW, like we did in the 1930s?

It'd be about the same number NOW as it was THEN.

The difference, and the reason we aren't seeing HOOVERVILLES is the UNEMPOYMENT INSURANCE and welfare system we put in place because of the 1930s DEPRESSION/PANIC/RECESSIONA/ECONOMIC DOWNTURN (call it whatever the fuck you want)

 

[B. Kidd]

A new report coming out of the CBO reaches the conclusion that our current debt levels are unsustainable.
This also isn't going to help the market.

 

[KissMy]

Depression LOFL, 90% are working and the economy is growing.
There are absolutely no drama queens on this board.

It's a DEPRESSION. I am depressed because I had to fire people & I feel depressed about it & they do to. My other workers are depressed because they had to take on more responsibilities. I am also depressed that my unemployment insurance payments keep climbing & my state is to broke to pay me my tax refund they owe me. I only got an IOU. I have many clients that have not paid me in a long time. I am also very depressed about the massive new pile of 1099 tax forms that the healthcare will force me to file.

 

[Mini 14]

Biden will spend us out of this, I just know he will!

 

[Old Rocks]

I am one of the lucky ones, and am riding this out well, other than not being able to sell my property at the moment.

But the unemployment is far above 10%. And there are all too many employed part time, and not able to pay their bills.

The worse part of the whole matter is that there is no longer any security for any wage earner.

Add the amount of debt taken on by many, unwisely, but with the encouragement of our whole financial structure, and you have a real downer for all.

What should we be doing? Well, the buildings, roads, and projects done in the '30s by the CCC, WPA, and other projects are mostly still here and serving us well. They created jobs then, and have paid us all back in service since then.

Right now, we have a need of a 21st century grid, and the people neccessary to service that grid. It would be an investment that would serve us for generations. At present, wind, geo-thermal, and even the new solar, are all cheaper than clean coal, wind and geo-thermal, cheaper than dirty coal.

We could be hiring and training people right now for the installation and maintance of the grid and energy sources right now. Do it similiar to the way we built the Interstates.

Or we can just sit on our asses and moan about the current problems.

 

[mascale]

Mostly, in the Great Depression there was visible evidence of the catastrophe, virtually everywhere.

In the Great Recession, there are now reports that upwards of 50% of the United States alone, has been somehow affected. "Somehow affectied" is different from the visble evidence of the catastrophe, virtually everywhere.

In Southern California, there are groups of Hispanics, waiting for Day Labor, at some of the outlets. Anglos and "others" are not therein found. Even Census workers are not found therein(?)!

That goes back a lot of years.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred"
(In the Great Socialist Scheme Of Economics Worldwide, "Austerity" means that Her Majesty's household won't get raises next year--unless the Royals consent!)

 

[B. Kidd]

I am one of the lucky ones, and am riding this out well, other than not being able to sell my property at the moment.

But the unemployment is far above 10%. And there are all too many employed part time, and not able to pay their bills.

The worse part of the whole matter is that there is no longer any security for any wage earner.

Add the amount of debt taken on by many, unwisely, but with the encouragement of our whole financial structure, and you have a real downer for all.

What should we be doing? Well, the buildings, roads, and projects done in the '30s by the CCC, WPA, and other projects are mostly still here and serving us well. They created jobs then, and have paid us all back in service since then.

Right now, we have a need of a 21st century grid, and the people neccessary to service that grid. It would be an investment that would serve us for generations. At present, wind, geo-thermal, and even the new solar, are all cheaper than clean coal, wind and geo-thermal, cheaper than dirty coal.

We could be hiring and training people right now for the installation and maintance of the grid and energy sources right now. Do it similiar to the way we built the Interstates.

Or we can just sit on our asses and moan about the current problems.

In the absence of competent leadership, won't get done.
Even if we started going full guns today on developing energy alternatives, one energy expert I heard recently theorizes, that given the current alternative energy technology, alternative energy will only meet 20 per cent of the nation's energy needs by the year 2050. Don't know if he is right or not.
Currently, its' a moot point anyways, no competent leadership.
So, the moaning continues.....

 

[Foxfyre]

Our leader didn't get many props at the G8 and G20 this past week, and one of the reasons everything is tanking again is because of the overwhelming crush of accumulating debt, a great deal of which is ours. And it is looking ever more likely that we and others will default on that debt. The Asian markets crashed in the face of such fears. The Dow here fell over 260 yesterday and remains shaky today.

If, at the urging of his international peers, Obama had reported that he was shelving all the unpopular and unfunded legislation already passed or in the works and he would return home to initiate a powerful push to balance the budget, I believe the recession would end now. He didn't do that, however, and remains in his delusion that printing, borrowing, and spending money we don't have for ill defined, fuzzy, foggy concepts that something might work.

Until we convince him to think otherwise, or replace him, or give conservatives a majority in Congress, I don't see anything turning around in the forseeable future.

 

[topspin]

I like to go with the economist. 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession. We've had positive GDP for about 3 qtrs now.

 

[Foxfyre]

I am as optimist and look for signs of hope with the best of them. But I am also a realist. When somebody is running 106 temperature his/her life is in danger. If the temperature goes down to 105.5 some would say that is an improvement and the treatment was working. A realist knows the person's life is still in danger and that the treatment has had little or no effect.

 

[B. Kidd]

I like to go with the economist. 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession. We've had positive GDP for about 3 qtrs now.

GDP is short term. Deficits are long term.
National debt was 40 per cent of GDP 2 years ago.
CBO said today that national debt will be 62 per cent by this years' end (already now near 60 per cent).
A 20 per cent rise in national debt in 2 years IS astounding!
No GDP can keep pace with this rapidly rising national debt.
Therefore, GDP, taken alone is not a recovery/recession indicator.

 

[Foxfyre]

I like to go with the economist. 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession. We've had positive GDP for about 3 qtrs now.

GDP is short term. Deficits are long term.
National debt was 40 per cent of GDP 2 years ago.
CBO said today that national debt will be 62 per cent by this years' end (already now near 60 per cent).
A 20 per cent rise in national debt in 2 years IS astounding!
No GDP can keep pace with this rapidly rising national debt.
Therefore, GDP, taken alone is not a recovery/recession indicator.

Further it took George W. Bush four years to add 2 trillion to the national debt. In his second four years he added a bit more than that.

The current Administration and Congress is on track to add 14 trillion to the national debt by the end of eight years if they continue to spend money at the rate they have spent it the first sixteen months of this Administration.

There isn't an economy in the world strong enough to keep up with that. And if we don't turn it around soon, there won't be any economies in developed countries that are not stronger than ours.

 

[topspin]

I was against the stimulus and the wealth redistribution cloaked in healthcare. That doens't change the fact of what is and isn't a recession.

 

[topspin]

As a money grubbing profit mongerer I take offense to that remark. Nobody hires someone out of some greater good hiring is done to make profits.
Maybe you should go to the social services board or get a dog.

 

[B. Kidd]

I like to go with the economist. 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP is a recession. We've had positive GDP for about 3 qtrs now.

GDP is short term. Deficits are long term.
National debt was 40 per cent of GDP 2 years ago.
CBO said today that national debt will be 62 per cent by this years' end (already now near 60 per cent).
A 20 per cent rise in national debt in 2 years IS astounding!
No GDP can keep pace with this rapidly rising national debt.
Therefore, GDP, taken alone is not a recovery/recession indicator.

Further it took George W. Bush four years to add 2 trillion to the national debt. In his second four years he added a bit more than that.

The current Administration and Congress is on track to add 14 trillion to the national debt by the end of eight years if they continue to spend money at the rate they have spent it the first sixteen months of this Administration.

There isn't an economy in the world strong enough to keep up with that. And if we don't turn it around soon, there won't be any economies in developed countries that are not stronger than ours.

Today's CBO report made projections on the national debt, taking into account Bush tax cuts ending, current fiscal policy (including Obamacare), and continued tax income to the gov't.
Taking this into account, CBO projects the national debt being 87 per cent of GDP, by 2020.
Scary shit, huh?
Keep in mind that the CBO IS non-partisan.
CBO also noted today that an 87 per cent level of national debt would be unprecedented in U.S. history and unchartered territory. (Their words, not mine.)