CDZ Do you welcome lower oil prices?

[Fueri]

That money stays in the pockets of consumers who then have it to spend elsewhere, which stimulates other sectors.

while it hurts the oil industry and those that tax gas/energy, it benefits consumers and therefore other industries when those consumers have more disposable income. that's the free market.

this is without a doubt a benefit to the consumers and economy at large. I read a stat once that indicated that a .10 rise in gas prices at the pump pulled X dollars out of the economy. That number was in the millions but I'll have to dig for it to cite it accurately. Some of that money does go to domestic producers, sure, but a large portion also goes to other foreign producers, some/many of which can go straight to hell, as far as I'm concerned, and pulls that money directly out of the US for the benefit of foreign interests, so I'm not losing a whole ton of sleep over that.

I'll post that study if I can find it.....

 

[william the wie]

By the way many people in the energy business have been claiming for years that the cross over point of converting Trucks, Trains and Boats at a profit to NG has been in the rearview mirror since before the meltdown.

 

[Dan Daly]

My pocketbook loves it. The oil industry...and especially our domestic oil industry...not so much. How many industry jobs did we lose in just the US last year...70,000? I can't even speculate on the number in related/supporting industries.

Or the number gained in the oil consuming industries. A 2/3rds drop in the cost of oil, fanfuckingtastic!

Like with my pocketbook...it should be looked at as a windfall...not the new normal. What comes down goes back up.

 

[320 Years of History]

Frankly, while the price of gas at the pump is something that is very apparent to me, whether gas is pricey (relative to prior prices and other nation's prices) isn't really something I care too much about one way or the other. Yes, it's nice to pay less and I like that; however the remark in the article that got me thinking about whether the lower prices for oil/gas right now is a good thing or not was this one:

While a boon for motorists, the price rout has shredded the budgets of oil producing countries and forced oil major to slash thousands of jobs and cut hundreds of billions of investment plans.
​

Domestic oil industry's gains and losses as a result of the drop in oil prices, though it has some impact on me, isn't what disconcerts me. Rather, it's that countries like Russia, many unstable, or nearly so, Middle Eastern nations, and others not in that region and that also depend on oil prices to sustain their economies and influential citizens' lifestyles are what I found troubling. Now I don't particularly care about folks' "rich and famous" lifestyles, but I do care when bellicose nations and intransigent leaders of them need to find ways to "placate" their people.

When powerful nations (and/or the powerful people in them) get put in a bind, they don't often react rationally. Look, for example, at Russia, which in spite of its having no good reason to want ISIS/Islamic State to succeed or realize any degrees of success in moving closer to its objectives, nonetheless has focused the bulk of it's combative efforts on Assad's non-ISIS enemies. This even though those enemies have less might to bring to bear against Assad than does ISIS. I understand why Russia targets anti-Assad forces, but that doesn't make their doing so rational unless one's aim is to first and foremost to help eliminate legitimate opposition to Assad in Syria before helping to eliminate the illegitimate opposition to him. (Presumably that is Russia's aim -- for a variety of reasons -- seeing as that's the tack they are taking.)

The preceding is just one high level example, but it illustrates why it's the geopolitical impact of the drop in oil prices that concerns me, not whether Exxon or other American oil industry companies must accept lower profits, not whether U.S. oil industry workers must find alternative employment, and certainly not whether I pay more or less at the gas pump.

 

[Dan Daly]

That money stays in the pockets of consumers who then have it to spend elsewhere, which stimulates other sectors.

while it hurts the oil industry and those that tax gas/energy, it benefits consumers and therefore other industries when those consumers have more disposable income. that's the free market.

this is without a doubt a benefit to the consumers and economy at large. I read a stat once that indicated that a .10 rise in gas prices at the pump pulled X dollars out of the economy. That number was in the millions but I'll have to dig for it to cite it accurately. Some of that money does go to domestic producers, sure, but a large portion also goes to other foreign producers, some/many of which can go straight to hell, as far as I'm concerned, and pulls that money directly out of the US for the benefit of foreign interests, so I'm not losing a whole ton of sleep over that.

I'll post that study if I can find it.....

we already know where the windfall has been going for the most part: Obamacare. The economy is tanking again, if you hadn't noticed. A lot of people don't want to notice...if you're one of them, forgive me for raining on your delusions.

 

[320 Years of History]

If it bothers you so much, pay the merchant at the station an extra $20 to assuage any residual guilt you may be feeling

One thing I can rely on in this forum is that someone in the "peanut gallery" will chime in with a puerile remark.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The economy is tanking again,

 

[william the wie]

That money stays in the pockets of consumers who then have it to spend elsewhere, which stimulates other sectors.

while it hurts the oil industry and those that tax gas/energy, it benefits consumers and therefore other industries when those consumers have more disposable income. that's the free market.

this is without a doubt a benefit to the consumers and economy at large. I read a stat once that indicated that a .10 rise in gas prices at the pump pulled X dollars out of the economy. That number was in the millions but I'll have to dig for it to cite it accurately. Some of that money does go to domestic producers, sure, but a large portion also goes to other foreign producers, some/many of which can go straight to hell, as far as I'm concerned, and pulls that money directly out of the US for the benefit of foreign interests, so I'm not losing a whole ton of sleep over that.

I'll post that study if I can find it.....

we already know where the windfall has been going for the most part: Obamacare. The economy is tanking again, if you hadn't noticed. A lot of people don't want to notice...if you're one of them, forgive me for raining on your delusions.

It is China that is tanking the world economy, a 3.5% or worse decline in GDP growth by the world's second largest economy has that effect. Since Ocare is dying due to higher premiums it is becoming a non-factor in the economy very quickly.

 

[Dan Daly]

That money stays in the pockets of consumers who then have it to spend elsewhere, which stimulates other sectors.

while it hurts the oil industry and those that tax gas/energy, it benefits consumers and therefore other industries when those consumers have more disposable income. that's the free market.

this is without a doubt a benefit to the consumers and economy at large. I read a stat once that indicated that a .10 rise in gas prices at the pump pulled X dollars out of the economy. That number was in the millions but I'll have to dig for it to cite it accurately. Some of that money does go to domestic producers, sure, but a large portion also goes to other foreign producers, some/many of which can go straight to hell, as far as I'm concerned, and pulls that money directly out of the US for the benefit of foreign interests, so I'm not losing a whole ton of sleep over that.

I'll post that study if I can find it.....

we already know where the windfall has been going for the most part: Obamacare. The economy is tanking again, if you hadn't noticed. A lot of people don't want to notice...if you're one of them, forgive me for raining on your delusions.

It is China that is tanking the world economy, a 3.5% or worse decline in GDP growth by the world's second largest economy has that effect. Since Ocare is dying due to higher premiums it is becoming a non-factor in the economy very quickly.

Yeah, before China started tanking ya'll blamed the weather...and everything but what the real root cause is: Central planning and rigged markets. Pretty soon ya'll are gonna run out of excuses.

 

[JakeStarkey]

ACA is not tanking, only the hopes of the far right.

When and if the GOP can pull it off, they will amend ACA and call it something else.

It ain't going away.

 

[william the wie]

Why would they bother?

 

[320 Years of History]

ACA is not tanking, only the hopes of the far right.

When and if the GOP can pull it off, they will amend ACA and call it something else.

It ain't going away.

Please stay somehow on the topic of oil, oil prices, the oil industry, economics related to oil, global or domestic issues pertaining to oil and/or oil prices, etc. This is not the thread to discuss the ACA.

 

[JakeStarkey]

ACA is not tanking, only the hopes of the far right.

When and if the GOP can pull it off, they will amend ACA and call it something else.

It ain't going away.

Please stay somehow on the topic of oil, oil prices, the oil industry, economics related to oil, global or domestic issues pertaining to oil and/or oil prices, etc. This is not the thread to discuss the ACA.

Point that out to everyone not just me. ACA is not going away.

Oil fell to 30.58 and 30.74 so far today.

 

[320 Years of History]

we already know where the windfall has been going for the most part: Obamacare. The economy is tanking again, if you hadn't noticed. A lot of people don't want to notice...if you're one of them, forgive me for raining on your delusions.

Dan, you are a reasonable substantive contributor to the discussions I've seen you in here in the CDZ. Whether any oil industry windfalls or other windfalls make their way into the funding of the ACA isn't relevant (however interesting it may be to consider/show whether they do or don't) to whether increasing or decreasing oil prices is a good thing. It's not relevant because absent any windfalls from one source, other sources would be found to fund it.

I'm asking therefore that you please try to discuss something that is relevant to the energy industry and it's impacts. I wouldn't normally ask this, but the ACA is a controversial enough topic that it can very easily derail a discussion about damn near anything. I don't have any specific issue with the remark above, but I know that there are too many "peanut gallery" members here who will take it as an invitation to convert the thread into another ACA discussion/debate and there are plenty of threads for that purpose.

 

[320 Years of History]

ACA is not tanking, only the hopes of the far right.

When and if the GOP can pull it off, they will amend ACA and call it something else.

It ain't going away.

Please stay somehow on the topic of oil, oil prices, the oil industry, economics related to oil, global or domestic issues pertaining to oil and/or oil prices, etc. This is not the thread to discuss the ACA.

Point that out to everyone not just me. ACA is not going away.

Oil fell to 30.58 and 30.74 so far today.

Red:
I did.

Blue:
Thank you.

 

[baileyn45]

I worry about what sustained low prices could do to some unknown oil based derivatives hiding in portfolios at large banks. The way these banks have been betting trillions on all sorts of nonsense, who knows. Fortunately we haven't heard any rumblings yet but then we usually don't until they can't hide the damage any more.

 

[initforme]

Good point. Trusting big oil companies to do the right thing is like asking the pope to turn atheist. I would Bert the vast majority of people, if asked, would agree. I hope to see the price continue to drop until its under $1. That would be great!

 

[william the wie]

RBS is doing the END OF THE WORLD bit. What is factual about their analysis:

Oil could actually reach $18-20/bbl

If you are not in the US, Panama, Ecuador or Liberia you are going to be screwed by the strengthening dollar if you do not invest in the US.

Sovereign Wealth Funds are mostly funded by oil revenues primarily or secondarily. So they will dump trillions of dollars worth of investments.

Because the US and India are the only major economies with rising interest rates they are the only places to invest safely in the predicted economic environment.

I don't see a problem for people in the US.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I worry about what sustained low prices could do to some unknown oil based derivatives hiding in portfolios at large banks. The way these banks have been betting trillions on all sorts of nonsense, who knows. Fortunately we haven't heard any rumblings yet but then we usually don't until they can't hide the damage any more.

I worry about what sustained low prices could do to some unknown oil based derivatives hiding in portfolios at large banks.

Nothing.

 

[baileyn45]

OOps I think I respo

I worry about what sustained low prices could do to some unknown oil based derivatives hiding in portfolios at large banks. The way these banks have been betting trillions on all sorts of nonsense, who knows. Fortunately we haven't heard any rumblings yet but then we usually don't until they can't hide the damage any more.

I worry about what sustained low prices could do to some unknown oil based derivatives hiding in portfolios at large banks.

Nothing.

I hope your right, when I hear the numbers being thrown around it sends a shiver up my spine.