MaggieMae
Reality bits
- Apr 3, 2009
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DevNell said:------- FRONTLINE: the warning: analysis: the alan greenspan era | PBS
Arthur Levitt said, "He was the wizard, and he was the best wizard I ever saw." In what sense?
He was unintelligible. It was almost a joke, the way he would speak. It was so imponderable, the sentence constructions. He so qualified everything. The circumlocutions were so complex that you couldn't understand practically what he was saying. And you know, people tend to think, "Wow, I can't understand him, he must be smart." And he is smart.
If you read his memoirs, they're engaging and surprisingly plainspoken, pleasingly so. But that was not how he was. So that was one element of his wizardly-ness.
He was very willing to go with arcane data, indicators that hadn't been widely watched. He was very willing to say, "In the bad old days of high inflation, people were very afraid to let the unemployment rate get too low." You didn't mishear me. I mean, unemployment's a bad thing. Low unemployment's a good thing, but not for central bankers, because they're worried if unemployment was too low, companies would have to pay too much for labor, and then inflation would go up.
And Greenspan would say, you know, maybe we can let this ride a little more, just because more people are getting work, nothing bad is happening, and maybe the economy is so productive that it won't result in price increases. And that basically happened.
The simplest answer for why he was viewed as an oracle is if you take the period -- he came in right before the market crash of '87. Of course, that was a rough start, but they managed through it. From that point on, markets had a 12-year glorious run, really, around the world. Equity markets went up. Interest rates went down. Inflation went down.
So chicken and egg. Did Greenspan cause it? Are we right to call him a wizard? Or was he running the ship in a buoyant period? I'm sure it's some of each. But good things were happening around the world.
Greenspan Admits Errors to Hostile House Panel - WSJ.com
Lawmakers read back quotations from recent years in which Mr. Greenspan said there's "no evidence" home prices would collapse and "the worst may well be over."
The 82-year-old Mr. Greenspan said he made "a mistake" in his hands-off regulatory philosophy, which many now blame in part for sparking the global economic troubles. He quoted something he had written in March: "Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief."
He conceded that he has "found a flaw" in his ideology and said he was "distressed by that." Yet Mr. Greenspan maintained that no regulator was smart enough to foresee the "once-in-a-century credit tsunami."