Crude Oil....

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Not so fast... hopefully...

Senate Republicans approve plan to allow drilling in Arctic refuge with tax legislation

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - dey gettin' ready to gouge us again...

Oil prices should drag companies’ stocks up with them
In January 2016, oil prices fell to $26 a barrel and dozens of indebted exploration and production companies were forced to file for bankruptcy. The ones that were not overleveraged have survived and learned to cut expenses and their finding costs.

Since then, the price of oil has risen more than 120 percent, to the upper 50s now, but the oil companies stocks have not doubled and are still at bargain-basement prices. Once upon a time, oil was 25 percent of the S&P, a position now occupied by technology shares. Oil has fallen to about 7 percent of the S&P in recent months. I have long argued that the three top producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States — each sells about 10 percent of total global production — all needed higher prices in the marketplace. That’s why Russia, the Saudis and other OPEC members have curtailed production. Russia faces the economic sanctions imposed by the West to punish it for its move into Crimea. Despite the attention Putin gets from the U.S. and other global leaders, the Russian economy is barely larger than that of Italy. It desperately needs its petrodollars to support the bellicose efforts it makes around the world in an attempt to appear more powerful than it is.

The Saudis ran a deficit of about $75 billion in the latest year. It is the fourth time in the last decade that its oil revenues were insufficient to support the vast social programs it needs to buy the silence (loyalty) of its citizens. It is also why the Saudi royal family, led now by Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman, is so busy trying to float the largest IPO of all time by selling 5 percent of Aramco in 2018. The U.S. cares about the price of oil as it tries to produce at least half of the 21 million barrels the nation uses per day. That would reduce our dependence on the volatile Middle East and on Venezuela, which is now in total disarray. We need oil above $50 for our U.S. producers to turn a profit.

Somehow, there is an overriding conviction that we will all be driving electric cars in the next two years and that petrol-fueled automobiles will disappear from the planet shortly thereafter. My 24-year-old Cadillac bit the dust in November and I did not choose to buy an electric or even partially electric vehicle to replace it. I don’t plan to give up driving and I plan to keep driving myself, not just sit in the car, for a long time to come. Plus, remember that plastics are made from oil. Global consumption continues to rise. Think about it. Countries where people used to walk or ride bikes are modernizing to the point where more cars are sold in China now than in the U.S. This trend is not abating anytime soon, as nations industrialize and develop a middle class. In a fully priced market fueled (pardon the pun) so far by hopes for a big corporate tax cut, the oil sector is quite undervalued. Chevron seems better positioned now than giant Exxon Mobil.

Those two huge stocks make up almost half of the XLE ETF. The companies that are more leveraged to higher prices are the exploration and production companies in the United States. While they seem to now trade off of weekly inventory reports, investors cannot ignore forever the rise in prices that has occurred this year. f you prefer more-leveraged, mid-cap stocks, you might like the XOP ETF which, like its benchmark, is off 17 percent this year after perking up 7 percent in the fourth quarter. Rather than an ETF, we have chosen to own a couple of promising individual names which, like the sector overall, have struggled this year but should provide higher returns. Patience is required but eventually should pay off when the momentum crowd decides that value is important again.

Oil prices should drag companies' stocks up with them

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

 

[ding]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

 

[fncceo]

We should be able to think of how ingredients could be compressed well and fine enough to manufacture crude oil, if crude oil is truly needed for daily living.

A nuclear particle accelerator is capable of turning lead into gold at a molecular level, but the cost per ounce would be several million times that of mined gold.

Yes, we can make synthetic petroleum products but .... they are much, much, more expensive than the stuff we pull out of the ground and refine.

Petroleum products aren't just our major source of fuel ... they are an essential ingredient for the manufacture of plastics and other synthetic material.

So, yes, crude oil is essential for daily living today.

 

[ding]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

 

[ding]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

No. The resource never goes away. It's always there. It's everywhere. It will always be there to serve as a price check to high prices. The only exception would be war.

 

[ding]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

Their F&D costs are low for the sweet spots (i.e. less than $40/bbl) and not too bad for the fringe plays (~$60/bbl). Drilling costs are low. It's the completion (i.e. frac costs) that make the wells expensive and they aren't that expensive even at that.

 

[waltky]

Libyan oil pipeline blast causes spike in oil prices...

Oil Prices Rise on Libyan Pipeline Blast
December 26, 2017 — Oil moved higher above $65 a barrel on Tuesday, within sight of its highest since mid-2015, supported by an explosion on a crude pipeline in Libya and voluntary OPEC-led supply cuts.

The move towards restart of a key North Sea pipeline, Forties, capped the rally. The pipeline is being tested after repairs and full flows should resume in early January, its operator said on Monday. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, rose 19 cents to $65.44 a barrel at 1447 GMT. Prices hit $65.83 on December 12, the highest since June 2015. U.S. crude added 24 cents to $58.71. "The confirmation that Forties is coming back ... has the potential for capping Brent," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix. Trading activity was thin due to the Christmas holiday in many countries.

Oil turned positive following the explosion at the Libyan pipeline, which feeds the Es Sider terminal. It was not immediately clear what impact the blast will have on Libyan output, which has been recovering in recent months after being hampered for years by conflict and unrest. Brent has risen 17 percent in 2017. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and other non-members, have been withholding output since January 1 to get rid of a glut. The producers have extended the supply cut agreement to cover all of 2018.

Pipelines are seen at the Zueitina oil terminal in Zueitina, west of Benghazi, Libya.​

Iraq's oil minister said on Monday there would be a balance between supply and demand by the first quarter, leading to a boost in prices. Global oil inventories have decreased to an acceptable level, he added. That is earlier than predicted in OPEC's latest official forecast, which calls for a balanced market by late 2018. While the OPEC action has lent support to prices all year, the unplanned shutdown of the Forties pipeline on December 11 pushed Brent to its mid-2015 high.

Forties plays an important role in the global market as it is the biggest of the five North Sea crude streams underpinning Brent, the benchmark for oil trading in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Rising production in the United States is offsetting some of the OPEC-led cuts. The U.S. rig count, RIG-OL-USA-BHI, an early indicator of future output, held at 747 in the week to December 22, according to the latest weekly report by Baker Hughes.

Oil Prices Rise on Libyan Pipeline Blast

 

[waltky]

Gas prices are at $2.50/gal. here...

Oil retreats after failing to hit $70/barrel
March 21, 2018 - Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors took profits after this week’s rally and as U.S. stock markets fell, but losses were limited by the continuing efforts of OPEC and its allies to curb supplies.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell 56 cents to settle at $68.91 a barrel, a 0.8 percent loss, having retreated from a session peak of $69.70, close to its highest level since early February. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell 87 cents to settle at $64.30 a barrel, a 1.3 percent loss. WTI traded between $64.23 a barrel and $65.74 a barrel during the session. Oil prices have risen in the past two weeks, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar and tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia that raised concern about Middle East supplies already restricted by an OPEC-led production pact. Prices recorded their biggest one-day gain since November on Wednesday after an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories.

A drop in U.S. equities on Thursday also weighed on oil prices as U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday that could impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports from China. “Fears of a trade tit-for-tat with China is a component to oil’s weakness today insofar as it might impact accelerating demand,” said Anthony Headrick, energy market analyst and commodity futures broker at CHS Hedging LLC in Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota. The oil derivatives market shows most activity in the past week has centered around options to buy, known as “call options,” which give the holder the possibility to purchase oil at a given price by a certain date. Call options to buy oil at $80 a barrel by the end of next month have changed hands more often in the past week than options at any other price level.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories C-STK-T-EIA fell 2.6 million barrels last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. The decline was driven by lower crude imports and higher refinery runs. But the confident mood in the oil market has been tempered by U.S. crude production C-OUT-T-EIA, which climbed to a record 10.4 million barrels per day last week, putting U.S. output ahead of Saudi Arabia and closing in on Russia’s 11 million bpd. “We are still viewing rapidly rising production into record high territory as a latent bearish consideration that will only be accentuated by this renewed high pricing environment,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note.

U.S. production growth has partly been countered by the deal to cut output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies. The agreement has run since the start of 2017 and is due to expire at the end of 2018. U.S. crude’s discount to Brent WTCLc1-LCOc1 widened to as much as $4.65 a barrel on Thursday, its biggest discount since late January.

Oil retreats after failing to hit $70/barrel

 

[Picaro]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

The smart play is keeping as much of ours in the ground as reserves and burning up everybody else's. O course greed rules, not common sense, and we're wasting a couple of century's worth of natural gas by over-production and just burning it off at the wells. It's criminal.

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

One would expect ANWR being opened to drilling should cut into that OPEC leverage.

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

The smart play is keeping as much of ours in the ground as reserves and burning up everybody else's. O course greed rules, not common sense, and we're wasting a couple of century's worth of natural gas by over-production and just burning it off at the wells. It's criminal.

It's not ours. And why would someone in any business not do business?

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Oil prices comin' down, gas should be cheaper in the short run...

Oil prices slide on supply glut warning
September 13, 2016 • Oil prices slumped Tuesday as the International Energy Agency warned that a global supply glut would last longer than expected, ahead of a meeting of producers to tackle the issue.

Prior to Tuesday's revised forecast from the IEA watchdog, prices were already falling after OPEC sparked its own fresh worries about the oversupply crisis. Around 1530 GMT, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in October was down $1.43 -- or 3.0 percent -- at $44.86 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery shed $1.09 to $47.23 a barrel compared with the close on Monday. "Oil remains under pressure again today after the IEA reported that oil demand growth will be lower than expected this year," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group. "This at a time when OPEC is pumping at near-record levels and non-OPEC countries are expected to pump at a faster rate than previously expected in 2017."

The International Energy Agency said demand growth for oil was slowing while supply was rising and looks set to go on at least six months longer than previously thought​

The IEA said oil demand growth was slowing while supply was rising, meaning the glut was now due to linger "at least through the first half of next year". The Paris-based organisation had earlier seen the oil oversupply disappearing in the latter part of 2016. Oil prices were falling back once more after the commodity rallied for most of August on hopes of a deal at an upcoming meeting between OPEC and Russia to limit output. But the market has taken a beating in recent weeks as traders grow doubtful that the Algiers gathering later this month will end in an agreement.

Oil: growth forecast
The International Energy Agency said demand growth for oil was slowing while supply was rising and looks set to go on at least six months longer than previously thought​

Adding to the downward pressure has been a pick-up in the dollar -- making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies -- and signs that demand remains weak. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday said non-OPEC producers, such as Russia, would see output rise in 2017, revising its previous expectations of a drop. "Oil prices are under pressure on renewed oversupply concerns," Bernard Aw, an analyst with IG Markets in Singapore, told AFP.

Global oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2016, to 96.1 mb/d, from its original forecast of 1.4 mb/d growth​

Forecasts that US commercial crude stockpiles will show a rise when fresh data is released Wednesday would give "credence to OPEC's prediction that output from non-OPEC producers will increase next year", Aw added. Traders are keeping watch also on the Federal Reserve ahead of a policy meeting next week, with speculation rife that it could lift US interest rates. Such a move would strengthen the dollar, hurting crude prices even further.

Oil prices slide on supply glut warning

It's not just gasoline. This can affect the entire economy in a good way if allowed to continue. Of course, if we didn't have this corrupt AGW scam impeding domestic extraction, this would be a moot point and our economy would once again be robust just as it was under Clinton, Bush I and Reagan, all for the same reason.

Trustfundie Treehuggers

The petrocrats' obscene profit margins depend on artificial scarcity, proving once again that Leftists are unconscious agents of the Economic Right they were born in. They don't have minds of their own; they are totally driven by class instincts.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Iran cheers OPEC deal on limiting output...

Iran: OPEC deal on limiting output step in right direction
October 17, 2016 — Iran's deputy oil minister says a preliminary agreement by OPEC nations to limit output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day is a "small step, but in the right direction."

Amir Hossein Zamaninia spoke Monday in Tehran, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached the deal in late September. The limit is meant to reduce a global glut that has depressed oil prices for over two years.

Iran had resisted cutting production. It's trying to restore its oil industry since emerging from international sanctions over its nuclear program earlier this year.

Zamaninia says Iran's oil output is 3.85 million barrels per day. Iran has said previously it would only consider a possible ceiling on output after it reaches 4 million barrels per day, its pre-sanctions level.

Iran: OPEC deal on limiting output step in right direction

Any reasonable person knows that what is good for Iran's criminal regime is bad for civilization.

The Name Changes, the Religion Changes, But Their Prey Is the Same

That's what the 300 Spartans gave their lives for. Changing Persia's name to Iran was an attempt to discredit historical knowledge and make it look old-fashioned and irrelevant.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Let's hope Trump keeps his word and OPEC loses much of its leverage.

OPECosaurus Rex

That illegal cartel is a creation of Exxon. That's why Tilly had to go.

 

[Picaro]

Shale oil has forever changed the landscape.

But it's way more expensive to extract.

Define way more expensive. I complete wells in DW GoM. Those are expensive.

Way more expensive enough that OPEC can leverage them out of business by opening their own spigots for a brief time.

The smart play is keeping as much of ours in the ground as reserves and burning up everybody else's. O course greed rules, not common sense, and we're wasting a couple of century's worth of natural gas by over-production and just burning it off at the wells. It's criminal.

It's not ours. And why would someone in any business not do business?

Actually it is; it's under our soil, not anybody else's. As for the rest of the world's, our corporations do most of the drilling and refining as well.

 

[there4eyeM]

Using the alternatives to the essentially centralized, established energy establishment is not 'left', but it is right/correct.

 

[Picaro]

Solar is dropping in price per Kw these days, and wind is putting out some respectable numbers of Kw/hrs, too. They won't entirely replace fossil, but they will indeed replace a lot of it. Petroleum and natural gas are far more valuable in other areas than being burned up as crude fuel sources.