Can Dems retake the House?

[JoeB131]

Which candidate are you endorsing at this point JoeB?

Still going to vote for Newt, like I told you the last six times you asked me.

 

[Dot Com]

Which candidate are you endorsing at this point JoeB?

Still going to vote for Newt, like I told you the last six times you asked me.

So you'll be voting to give Nancy back the gavel? Good on you

 

[JoeB131]

Incidently, on the lower level, I have another hard decision to make.

I used to live in the 6th Congressional District of IL, but they redrew the lines, and now I'm in the 8th District. So I went from having Peter Roskam as a Congressman (whom I've met and like) to having Joe Walsh. Walsh is a Tea Party type, but we found out recently that he stiffed his ex-wife on child support payments. Which is a check against his character for me.

His Democratic opponent is Tammy Duckworth. She lost both her legs in Iraq, but she's really not very impressive otherwise. Feel bad for her loss, but really, she strikes me as kind of vapid and probably someone who will call Pelosi every morning to see how she has to vote. I voted for Roskam over her in 2006 and didn't lose an ounce of sleep over it.

So I have a choice between voting for a weasel whom I might agree with on some issues, and an airhead who seems like otherwise a nice person and kind of deserves a break.

 

[JoeB131]

Which candidate are you endorsing at this point JoeB?

Still going to vote for Newt, like I told you the last six times you asked me.

So you'll be voting to give Nancy back the gavel? Good on you

YOu know what, guy, see my comments above on the 8th Congressional district.

I think that Newt would probably be better in teh congressional race. Given the way congressional districts are gerrymandered, he'd bring out enthusiastic Republican voters in safe and marginal districts. So although he's just as likely to lose the presidency as the Weird Mormon Robot is, I suspect the GOP would do better in Congress.

 

[del]

Which candidate are you endorsing at this point JoeB?

ampad uber alles

 

[Sallow]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

Romney will never be President and Neither will Newt.

Bank on it.

 

[Sallow]

Still going to vote for Newt, like I told you the last six times you asked me.

So you'll be voting to give Nancy back the gavel? Good on you

YOu know what, guy, see my comments above on the 8th Congressional district.

I think that Newt would probably be better in teh congressional race. Given the way congressional districts are gerrymandered, he'd bring out enthusiastic Republican voters in safe and marginal districts. So although he's just as likely to lose the presidency as the Weird Mormon Robot is, I suspect the GOP would do better in Congress.

Newt would assure that both houses go Democrat.

 

[Dot Com]

which candidate are you endorsing at this point joeb?

ampad uber alles

roflmao :d

 

[ladyliberal]

Intrade gives the Dems about a 1 in 3 chance of taking the house (compared to a 1 in 5 chance of retaining the Senate). The way I see things:

Points in the Republicans favor:

- voter ID laws, consistently favoring Republicans

- Redistricting, largely favoring Republicans, who control the process in more states than the Dems (JoeB's Illinois is the major aberration)

- They haven't really passed any unpopular laws

- They currently have a large majority


Points in the Democrats favor:

- The current Congress hasn't passed any really popular laws either, and is widely seen as partisan and obstructionist

- There remains a strong anti-incumbent sentiment, consistent with the volatility in the recent elections

- Obama should be a stronger standard-bearer (even if he ends up losing) than the largely uninspiring Romney

- There's some evidence of local "reverse coattails" hurting Republicans due to their actions in statewide issues, particularly in Ohio and Wisconsin

- Many of the current Republican representatives are vulnerable either because of their short tenures or due to ideologies inconsistent with those of their districts, or both

 

[Toro]

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much?

No.

The fact that you do is not relevant.

 

[Dot Com]

 

[JoeB131]

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much?

No.

The fact that you do is not relevant.

Right. because the fact that he can inspire hate isn't relevent at all.

Honestly, Bush-43, as crazy nutty as he made the Dems, he was more likable as a person than Mitt is on his programmer's best day.

 

[del]

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much?

No.

The fact that you do is not relevant.

Right. because the fact that he can inspire hate isn't relevent at all.

Honestly, Bush-43, as crazy nutty as he made the Dems, he was more likable as a person than Mitt is on his programmer's best day.

the blindness of the bigot

 

[Dot Com]

No.

The fact that you do is not relevant.

Right. because the fact that he can inspire hate isn't relevent at all.

Honestly, Bush-43, as crazy nutty as he made the Dems, he was more likable as a person than Mitt is on his programmer's best day.

the blindness of the bigot

I'm an Atheist & I'm more tolerant of Mormons than JoeB is JoeB claimed to be an Atheist a couple weeks ago but there aint no way as one of his primary reasons for opposing Romney is his religion, as if they all aren't as equally far-fetched.

 

[Toro]

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much?

No.

The fact that you do is not relevant.

Right. because the fact that he can inspire hate isn't relevent at all.

Honestly, Bush-43, as crazy nutty as he made the Dems, he was more likable as a person than Mitt is on his programmer's best day.

Yes, just like black people inspire hate too.

"I hate black people. Some black people screwed me a long time ago. So now I hate all black people. I make lists of black people and won't do business with them. I certainly won't vote for black people either. Oh, did I say 'black people?' I mean to say 'Mormons.' "



Outstanding.

 

[JoeB131]

I'm an Atheist & I'm more tolerant of Mormons than JoeB is JoeB claimed to be an Atheist a couple weeks ago but there aint no way as one of his primary reasons for opposing Romney is his religion, as if they all aren't as equally far-fetched.

Well, no, I just have different standards.

Starting a religion because you have a different intrepretation of holy books than the established religion- i.e. Luther, Calvin, etc. - Morally nothing wrong with that, if you believe in an invisible sky friend.

Starting a religion because it's an easier scam than Gold Divining, and your idiot followers will let you sleep with their teenage daughters i.e. Joseph Smith and David Koresh - Probably just about everything morally wrong with that.

You don't need to believe in an invisible sky friend to understand some things are just wrong. You are preying on people's vulerabilities and fears. That's what makes Mormonism kind of contemptable.

 

[del]

I'm an Atheist & I'm more tolerant of Mormons than JoeB is JoeB claimed to be an Atheist a couple weeks ago but there aint no way as one of his primary reasons for opposing Romney is his religion, as if they all aren't as equally far-fetched.

Well, no, I just have different standards.

Starting a religion because you have a different intrepretation of holy books than the established religion- i.e. Luther, Calvin, etc. - Morally nothing wrong with that, if you believe in an invisible sky friend.

Starting a religion because it's an easier scam than Gold Divining, and your idiot followers will let you sleep with their teenage daughters i.e. Joseph Smith and David Koresh - Probably just about everything morally wrong with that.

You don't need to believe in an invisible sky friend to understand some things are just wrong. You are preying on people's vulerabilities and fears. That's what makes Mormonism kind of contemptable.

the really sad thing about joey is he actually believes himself

 

[JoeB131]

Yes, just like black people inspire hate too.

"I hate black people. Some black people screwed me a long time ago. So now I hate all black people. I make lists of black people and won't do business with them. I certainly won't vote for black people either. Oh, did I say 'black people?' I mean to say 'Mormons.' "



Outstanding.

Hey, guy, instead of using Jews or Blacks or some other group that has suffered real oppression, why not actually point out why Mormons deserve sympathy for buying into a scam?

It seems to me that you don't believe that Joseph Smith was talking to God any more than I do.

So if he wasn't talking to God, he was a liar and a scammer. And anyone who lacks the ability to see that can't be trusted with making big-boy decisions.

 

[JoeB131]

the really sad thing about joey is he actually believes himself

No, the sad thing is you are so anxious to beat Obama you will glom onto anything.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Now that the GOP is going to throw the election by nominating Romney and we are all going to have to learn to live with four more years of Obama, can the Democrats retake the House?

Maybe. Charlie Cook has an interesting article hereAll Stirred Up - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com, but here hare the raw numbers.

31 House members are retiring (18 Dems and 13 Republicans)
24 incumbants are "double bunked"- Two congressmen running for the same district. Only two of those are likely to produce a switch in party.
A total of 47 districts will have no incumbant at all...

Then you have massive dissatisfaction for both parties in Congress.

Now, historically, when an Incumbant wins, (as Obama will do, because honestly, Romney's a bad joke) he usually doesn't have long coat-tails in the house.

2004- Bush - +3 GOP- Mostly due to remaps in Texas.
1996- Clinton + 9 Dem
1984- Reagan +16 GOP
1972- Nixon +12 GOP
1964- LBJ +37 Dem
1956- Ike -2 Gop lost two seats despite Ike's win!
1948- Truman +75 Dem

However, the factor of redistricting combined with the fact that Romney is going to be an absolute trainwreck might put them over the top.

There is no chance the Dems take the House...

Dems won't be taking anything... Especially if republicans play their cards right.. Republicans could very well take the Senate, and potentially the White House.

I believe Paul will win the nomination to boot - even if he didn't I think Obama would have a difficult time beating Romney (the only candidate that would beat Paul)..

I don't even like Romney, I'd vote for him over Paul tho.