Can Dems retake the House?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JoeB131, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. JoeB131
    Offline

    JoeB131 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2011
    Messages:
    80,579
    Thanks Received:
    6,873
    Trophy Points:
    1,815
    Location:
    Chicago, Chicago, that Toddling Town
    Ratings:
    +15,082
    Now that the GOP is going to throw the election by nominating Romney and we are all going to have to learn to live with four more years of Obama, can the Democrats retake the House?

    Maybe. Charlie Cook has an interesting article hereAll Stirred Up - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com, but here hare the raw numbers.

    31 House members are retiring (18 Dems and 13 Republicans)
    24 incumbants are "double bunked"- Two congressmen running for the same district. Only two of those are likely to produce a switch in party.
    A total of 47 districts will have no incumbant at all...

    Then you have massive dissatisfaction for both parties in Congress.

    Now, historically, when an Incumbant wins, (as Obama will do, because honestly, Romney's a bad joke) he usually doesn't have long coat-tails in the house.

    2004- Bush - +3 GOP- Mostly due to remaps in Texas.
    1996- Clinton + 9 Dem
    1984- Reagan +16 GOP
    1972- Nixon +12 GOP
    1964- LBJ +37 Dem
    1956- Ike -2 Gop lost two seats despite Ike's win!
    1948- Truman +75 Dem

    However, the factor of redistricting combined with the fact that Romney is going to be an absolute trainwreck might put them over the top.
     
  2. Zander
    Offline

    Zander Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2009
    Messages:
    17,452
    Thanks Received:
    6,575
    Trophy Points:
    390
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    Ratings:
    +12,894
    Still pretending to be a conservative eh Joe? :lol:

    Your "analysis" is like you; vapid, shallow, and inane.
     
  3. JoeB131
    Offline

    JoeB131 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2011
    Messages:
    80,579
    Thanks Received:
    6,873
    Trophy Points:
    1,815
    Location:
    Chicago, Chicago, that Toddling Town
    Ratings:
    +15,082
    depends how you define conservative, guy.

    Supporting the people who make more people dependent on government by destroying the middle class isn't "conservative".

    I think the operative words for that is "Self-Defeating".

    If I have rely on the government to put food on my table, I'll vote for more government. But this is exactly what Romney and his ilk do when they send the good jobs overseas to make themselves richer.
     
  4. California Girl
    Offline

    California Girl BANNED

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2009
    Messages:
    50,337
    Thanks Received:
    8,960
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +8,965
    That seems to sum it up.
     
  5. JoeB131
    Offline

    JoeB131 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2011
    Messages:
    80,579
    Thanks Received:
    6,873
    Trophy Points:
    1,815
    Location:
    Chicago, Chicago, that Toddling Town
    Ratings:
    +15,082
    Too many big words for you.

    Sadly, Romney is not only going to cost us the White House, he might hand the gavel back to Pelosi...

    I live in a district IL-8, that will almost definitely go back to the Democrats this time.
     
  6. JoeB131
    Offline

    JoeB131 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2011
    Messages:
    80,579
    Thanks Received:
    6,873
    Trophy Points:
    1,815
    Location:
    Chicago, Chicago, that Toddling Town
    Ratings:
    +15,082
    The instructive one is really 1948. Harry Truman ran against the "Do Nothing Congress" while the GOP ran Thomas Dewey, who like Romney was a loser the last time he ran, but they went with him again.

    And the Democrats gained 75 Seats in an election where Truman only got 48% of the vote.

    Could it happen again? Maybe. Conservatives staying home, liberals energized and a lot of flux do to redistricting?

    The parelel is interesting. In the 1946 midterms, you had the GOP pick up 55 Seats, and control of the HOuse. Not unlike what happened in 2010. This was largely a reaction to the end of WWII< and people reacting to the fact that Truman was not giving back a lot of the powers the Presidency gained during FDR back. Not to mention the economic aftershocks of 16 million men mustering out of the armed forces and getting back into civilian life. But the GOP quickly squandered it's advantage.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2012
  7. Greenbeard
    Offline

    Greenbeard Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2010
    Messages:
    6,809
    Thanks Received:
    1,200
    Trophy Points:
    200
    Location:
    New England
    Ratings:
    +1,323
    Perhaps Obama will employ a variant of "if you stay at home, as you did in 1946, and keep these reactionaries in power, you'll deserve every blow you get!"

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2WA93SCfsI]Truman[/ame]
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  8. JoeB131
    Offline

    JoeB131 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2011
    Messages:
    80,579
    Thanks Received:
    6,873
    Trophy Points:
    1,815
    Location:
    Chicago, Chicago, that Toddling Town
    Ratings:
    +15,082
    Since union power isn't as great as it was then, not sure if that would be an effective tact.

    He does need to rally his base. And painting Romney as an enemy to working people would be like portraying Paris Hilton as a tramp. Really, most of the hard work has already been done.
     
  9. Toro
    Offline

    Toro Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2005
    Messages:
    50,786
    Thanks Received:
    11,059
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Location:
    The Big Bend via Riderville
    Ratings:
    +25,116
    It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

    It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  10. rightwinger
    Offline

    rightwinger Paid Messageboard Poster Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2009
    Messages:
    120,476
    Thanks Received:
    19,872
    Trophy Points:
    2,190
    Location:
    NJ & MD
    Ratings:
    +45,506
    With a weak presidential candidate and inept freshmen Tea Partiers

    The House is definitely in play
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1

Share This Page