Can Dems retake the House?

[Amelia]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

If Newt runs, that will energize liberals to get out and vote. The hate for Newt is strong.

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much? The problem is, conservatives are going to hate Romney, too.

Hey, remember back in 2008, when the Democrats assured us that if we just nominated John McCain, who was a nice, sensible moderate who didn't tick them off, how they might actually be caught having a drink with a Republican?

Didn't turn out that way. The villified the guy completely, and when he picked Palin as a running-mate, man, did the gloves come off. He was crazy War-Monger McCain who was going to get us into another war.

Why you spend so much time getting people who hate you to try to like you is beyond me.

I don't think that they will hate Romney as much.

I think there will be apathy among many who voted for Obama last time around.

Some might sort of hate Romney on principle because they're supposed to because he is an evil rich man *insert cartoon pitchforks here* but I don't think they will feel that hate on the gut level that people feel it for Newt.

Passionate anti-Obama feeling will get a lot of Republicans out even if they don't like Mitt.

What will get the Democrats out if they're feeling blase about Obama? I think Newt could do it. Much more than Romney.

 

[Contumacious]

Can Dems retake the House?.

Of course,

WELFARE STATE = GOVERNMENT BUY THE PEOPLE

.

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think that they will hate Romney as much.

I think there will be apathy among many who voted for Obama last time around.

Some might sort of hate Romney on principle because they're supposed to because he is an evil rich man *insert cartoon pitchforks here* but I don't think they will feel that hate on the gut level that people feel it for Newt.

Passionate anti-Obama feeling will get a lot of Republicans out even if they don't like Mitt.

What will get the Democrats out if they're feeling blase about Obama? I think Newt could do it. Much more than Romney.

The kind of Democrat who is out there stewing because Newt did a nasty to Clinton in the 1990's is the kind of guy who is going to show up to vote Democratic, anyway. He probably spent the Oughts hating Bush, and can easily transfer his hate to whoever has the "R" behind his name.

Where Obama faces problems with Apathy are amongst his under 25 supporters who were children when that nonsense went down. To them, Newt might as well be Wendell Wilke.

If you are counting on Anti-Obama sentiment to get Romney over the top, well, that didn't work for Bob Dole and it didn't work for John Kerry. Just hating the guy who is in there now won't do it. You have to feel passionate about the guy you are running, and frankly, I'm not seeing passion for Romney. I'm seeing resignation, for the most part. Well, let's get this over with.

 

[JoeB131]

Can Dems retake the House?.

Of course,

WELFARE STATE = GOVERNMENT BUY THE PEOPLE

.

I don't disagree. BUt the problem is two fold. On one hand you have the Democrats offering people all sorts of bribes to keep the goodies flowing, but on the other, you have the REpublicans hollowing out the middle class in that quest for bigger profits.

 

[Outback]

I'd put a buck on "No".

 

[Contumacious]

Can Dems retake the House?.

Of course,

WELFARE STATE = GOVERNMENT BUY THE PEOPLE

.

I don't disagree. BUt the problem is two fold. On one hand you have the Democrats offering people all sorts of bribes to keep the goodies flowing, but on the other, you have the REpublicans hollowing out the middle class in that quest for bigger profits.

I am not a Republican but supporting the welfare/warfare state is MANDATORY but going to mall is VOLUNTARY.

.,

 

[Oldstyle]

Is there another politician more disliked by the vast majority of Americans than Nancy Pelosi? All a conservative running for the House has to do is ask his voters if they REALLY want to put "San Fran Nan" back in charge of the House. Voting Democratic would do that. It's a pretty simple stump speech. Vote for my opponent and you're voting for Pelosi and more "we have to pass the bill before we can read the bill" politics.

 

[JoeB131]

Is there another politician more disliked by the vast majority of Americans than Nancy Pelosi? All a conservative running for the House has to do is ask his voters if they REALLY want to put "San Fran Nan" back in charge of the House. Voting Democratic would do that. It's a pretty simple stump speech. Vote for my opponent and you're voting for Pelosi and more "we have to pass the bill before we can read the bill" politics.

Is Boenher any more well liked?

I think the problem is that people are made at BOTH parties right now and rightfully so. What amazes me is that a viable third party hasn't shown up yet.

 

[auditor0007]

Now that the GOP is going to throw the election by nominating Romney and we are all going to have to learn to live with four more years of Obama, can the Democrats retake the House?

Maybe. Charlie Cook has an interesting article hereAll Stirred Up - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com, but here hare the raw numbers.

31 House members are retiring (18 Dems and 13 Republicans)
24 incumbants are "double bunked"- Two congressmen running for the same district. Only two of those are likely to produce a switch in party.
A total of 47 districts will have no incumbant at all...

Then you have massive dissatisfaction for both parties in Congress.

Now, historically, when an Incumbant wins, (as Obama will do, because honestly, Romney's a bad joke) he usually doesn't have long coat-tails in the house.

2004- Bush - +3 GOP- Mostly due to remaps in Texas.
1996- Clinton + 9 Dem
1984- Reagan +16 GOP
1972- Nixon +12 GOP
1964- LBJ +37 Dem
1956- Ike -2 Gop lost two seats despite Ike's win!
1948- Truman +75 Dem

However, the factor of redistricting combined with the fact that Romney is going to be an absolute trainwreck might put them over the top.

If the fairness issue sells, Republicans could be in trouble. Honestly, if Romney is the nominee, then the ammunition is already there with Romney's 14% effective tax rate. I don't care whether it is fair or not, it doesn't look good and can be made into a very effective campaign issue.

 

[Political Junky]

If Gingrich is the nominee, according to Brit Hume; who is no Libral BTW , yes

video of Brit Hume:
Newt, Electable? | The Lonely Conservative

Some Republicans are voting for Newt Gingrich because they say he’s the most electable candidate. I don’t know where they get that idea. Here’s Britt Hume on Newt’s national approval ratings and how Republicans in Congress are afraid that Newt being at the top of the ticket will mean huge losses in the House and Senate.

Run, Newt, run.

 

[Grandma]

From what I've seen, it looks bad for republicans. Now these are just my own observations, but they are observations, I'm not just pulling ideas out of my ass.

Anyhoo, a lot of older voters told me they're staying home, and older voters tend to vote republican. Hispanic voters are in general outraged over the immigration laws that encourage racial profiling. Blacks aren't happy about Newt saying that a janitor's wages can be divided among 30 inner-city schoolchildren that can be taught to scrub toilets as a career choice. They aren't happy that he offered to speak to the NAACP on how to get off food stamps. Even if Romney gets the nomination, Newt tainted the republican pool. Some of the younger voters are talking about writing in Ron Paul. Romney's a flipflopper and an elitist.

Obama's going to win.

If so many republicans hadn't said that their only goal was to make Obama a one-term President, and had they given breaks to the middle class they'd have a better chance in the House. Those were major fails. They played only to their devoted party members and they lost the independents and swing voters.

 

[Lakhota]

From what I've seen, it looks bad for republicans. Now these are just my own observations, but they are observations, I'm not just pulling ideas out of my ass.

Anyhoo, a lot of older voters told me they're staying home, and older voters tend to vote republican. Hispanic voters are in general outraged over the immigration laws that encourage racial profiling. Blacks aren't happy about Newt saying that a janitor's wages can be divided among 30 inner-city schoolchildren that can be taught to scrub toilets as a career choice. They aren't happy that he offered to speak to the NAACP on how to get off food stamps. Even if Romney gets the nomination, Newt tainted the republican pool. Some of the younger voters are talking about writing in Ron Paul. Romney's a flipflopper and an elitist.

Obama's going to win.

If so many republicans hadn't said that their only goal was to make Obama a one-term President, and had they given breaks to the middle class they'd have a better chance in the House. Those were major fails. They played only to their devoted party members and they lost the independents and swing voters.

Amen!

 

[rightwinger]

From what I've seen, it looks bad for republicans. Now these are just my own observations, but they are observations, I'm not just pulling ideas out of my ass.

Anyhoo, a lot of older voters told me they're staying home, and older voters tend to vote republican. Hispanic voters are in general outraged over the immigration laws that encourage racial profiling. Blacks aren't happy about Newt saying that a janitor's wages can be divided among 30 inner-city schoolchildren that can be taught to scrub toilets as a career choice. They aren't happy that he offered to speak to the NAACP on how to get off food stamps. Even if Romney gets the nomination, Newt tainted the republican pool. Some of the younger voters are talking about writing in Ron Paul. Romney's a flipflopper and an elitist.

Obama's going to win.

If so many republicans hadn't said that their only goal was to make Obama a one-term President, and had they given breaks to the middle class they'd have a better chance in the House. Those were major fails. They played only to their devoted party members and they lost the independents and swing voters.

Under the right economic conditions, Obama was beatable in this election. Right now, given the poor quality of the GOP field and the issues they choose to run on.....they have little to no chance

 

[Contumacious]

Under the right economic conditions, Obama was beatable in this election. Right now, given the poor quality of the GOP field and the issues they choose to run on.....they have little to no chance

Correct.

We are in the hole by only 15 TTTTTTTTTTrillion dollars .

So of course we can afford to continue the welfare/warfare state policies.

A welfare state = government buy the people.

 

[rightwinger]

Under the right economic conditions, Obama was beatable in this election. Right now, given the poor quality of the GOP field and the issues they choose to run on.....they have little to no chance

Correct.

We are in the hole by only 15 TTTTTTTTTTrillion dollars .

So of course we can afford to continue the welfare/warfare state policies.

A welfare state = government buy the people.

And we can also afford to maintain tax rates that have not met our budget needs for ten years

Why not return to a tax structure that actually gave us a budget surplus?

 

[Contumacious]

Under the right economic conditions, Obama was beatable in this election. Right now, given the poor quality of the GOP field and the issues they choose to run on.....they have little to no chance

Correct.

We are in the hole by only 15 TTTTTTTTTTrillion dollars .

So of course we can afford to continue the welfare/warfare state policies.

A welfare state = government buy the people.

And we can also afford to maintain tax rates that have not met our budget needs for ten years

Why not return to a tax structure that actually gave us a budget surplus?

Now we are talking.

Let's repeal the so-called 16th Amendment, Withholding Tax at the Source (pursuant to the Victory Tax) and adopt president's Andrew Jackson 's policy.

.

 

[rightwinger]

Correct.

We are in the hole by only 15 TTTTTTTTTTrillion dollars .

So of course we can afford to continue the welfare/warfare state policies.

A welfare state = government buy the people.

And we can also afford to maintain tax rates that have not met our budget needs for ten years

Why not return to a tax structure that actually gave us a budget surplus?

Now we are talking.

Let's repeal the so-called 16th Amendment, Withholding Tax at the Source (pursuant to the Victory Tax) and adopt president's Andrew Jackson 's policy.

.

Nonsense...we need to repeal the 3rd Amendment

 

[rightwinger]

Now that the GOP is going to throw the election by nominating Romney and we are all going to have to learn to live with four more years of Obama, can the Democrats retake the House?

Maybe. Charlie Cook has an interesting article hereAll Stirred Up - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com, but here hare the raw numbers.

31 House members are retiring (18 Dems and 13 Republicans)
24 incumbants are "double bunked"- Two congressmen running for the same district. Only two of those are likely to produce a switch in party.
A total of 47 districts will have no incumbant at all...

Then you have massive dissatisfaction for both parties in Congress.

Now, historically, when an Incumbant wins, (as Obama will do, because honestly, Romney's a bad joke) he usually doesn't have long coat-tails in the house.

2004- Bush - +3 GOP- Mostly due to remaps in Texas.
1996- Clinton + 9 Dem
1984- Reagan +16 GOP
1972- Nixon +12 GOP
1964- LBJ +37 Dem
1956- Ike -2 Gop lost two seats despite Ike's win!
1948- Truman +75 Dem

However, the factor of redistricting combined with the fact that Romney is going to be an absolute trainwreck might put them over the top.

There is no chance the Dems take the House...

Dems won't be taking anything... Especially if republicans play their cards right.. Republicans could very well take the Senate, and potentially the White House.

I believe Paul will win the nomination to boot - even if he didn't I think Obama would have a difficult time beating Romney (the only candidate that would beat Paul)..

I don't even like Romney, I'd vote for him over Paul tho.

Still clinging to the hope that Paul can win?

 

[Mac1958]

Someone on another thread pointed out that redistricting will give the GOP an advantage in the House. That may be the one thing that saves them. The party is a sloppy mess right now, and it's not delivering a clear message as to why anyone should vote for it.

"We're not Obama" isn't enough. Neither was Kerry's "We're not Bush".

...

 

[Full-Auto]

And we can also afford to maintain tax rates that have not met our budget needs for ten years

Why not return to a tax structure that actually gave us a budget surplus?

Now we are talking.

Let's repeal the so-called 16th Amendment, Withholding Tax at the Source (pursuant to the Victory Tax) and adopt president's Andrew Jackson 's policy.

.

Nonsense...we need to repeal the 3rd Amendment

Hey that fits right in to the suspension of rights from the NDAA.

At least democrats are consistent with wanting to surrender liberty.