Calm Down, Donald Trump Will Not Be The Candidate - Nate Silver

[nuhuh]

Many people will reject this story outright because they truly believe they have found their perfect candidate, but as time progresses and candidates become more focused, Donald Trump's lack of knowledge about things that Americans care about will become much more noticeable and by extension his popularity will suffer. The only interesting side note will be which candidates will be washed up by then and which ones will still be viable.

"One of the nation's top polling analysts says real-estate magnate Donald Trump is unlikely to win the Republican presidential nomination.

Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, told an audience at an event in New York on Wednesday he didn't think Trump would be the nominee because he was not conservative enough.

"I don't think that Donald Trump is very likely to win the nomination in part because he's not really a Republican," Silver told journalist Mo Rocca at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan.

"He's very far to the right on immigration, but he also wants socialized medicine," Silver said. "He wants to tax the rich, right? There's an alternate reality in which he decided to run as a Democrat instead — he wouldn't have to change his policy positions all that much."

Trump is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, leading in both national polls and polls of key early-nominating states including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

But Silver, who was heralded for correctly predicting which candidate would win every state in the 2012 presidential election, isn't quite clear on how or when Trump's demise will occur.

Trump has managed to outlast predictions regarding his campaign's viability from some pundits and pollsters — including Silver, who claimed that Trump's favorability ratings were too low — and numerous controversies stemming from his statements about women, immigrants, and more.

Silver said that at this stage, polls wouldn't yield much accurate predictive information, a claim some political observers have cited as reason not to take Trump's poll numbers too seriously.

"People haven't given [the candidates] more than two seconds' worth of attention ... Calm down — it's not a tennis match where you're going back and forth all the time," Silver said. "Keep calm."Nate Silver: 'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination

 

[rightwinger]

Trump is the GOP Class Clown

He may get much of the attention, he may interrupt and ridicule the other students

But the Class Clown never becomes Class president




.

 

[Disir]

Well, then........case closed. It won't be necessary to try to go back and make 1927 a relevant thang, eh?

 

[nuhuh]

Well, then........case closed. It won't be necessary to try to go back and make 1927 a relevant thang, eh?

Why not? Vetting the candidate is a process that is both beneficial to the voter and painful to the candidate.

 

[bendog]

Silver's right, polls mean nothing now about what they'll show in 5 months .... or 14 months. But, he has now way statistically or mathematically conclude Trump's poll numbers will decline. And he is not a traditional pol wog. He's actually a gambler who does probability.

 

[1stRambo]

Many people will reject this story outright because they truly believe they have found their perfect candidate, but as time progresses and candidates become more focused, Donald Trump's lack of knowledge about things that Americans care about will become much more noticeable and by extension his popularity will suffer. The only interesting side note will be which candidates will be washed up by then and which ones will still be viable.

"One of the nation's top polling analysts says real-estate magnate Donald Trump is unlikely to win the Republican presidential nomination.

Nate Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of the data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight, told an audience at an event in New York on Wednesday he didn't think Trump would be the nominee because he was not conservative enough.

"I don't think that Donald Trump is very likely to win the nomination in part because he's not really a Republican," Silver told journalist Mo Rocca at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan.

"He's very far to the right on immigration, but he also wants socialized medicine," Silver said. "He wants to tax the rich, right? There's an alternate reality in which he decided to run as a Democrat instead — he wouldn't have to change his policy positions all that much."

Trump is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, leading in both national polls and polls of key early-nominating states including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

But Silver, who was heralded for correctly predicting which candidate would win every state in the 2012 presidential election, isn't quite clear on how or when Trump's demise will occur.

Trump has managed to outlast predictions regarding his campaign's viability from some pundits and pollsters — including Silver, who claimed that Trump's favorability ratings were too low — and numerous controversies stemming from his statements about women, immigrants, and more.

Silver said that at this stage, polls wouldn't yield much accurate predictive information, a claim some political observers have cited as reason not to take Trump's poll numbers too seriously.

"People haven't given [the candidates] more than two seconds' worth of attention ... Calm down — it's not a tennis match where you're going back and forth all the time," Silver said. "Keep calm."Nate Silver: 'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination

Yo, Obama is even laughing at you!!!
"GTP"

 

[nuhuh]

 

[Disir]

You're not vetting him. You're scared.
Republicans are scared. Democrats are scared. Most importantly? The elite squad is scared. This little group is going to have a shake down for the next several election cycles.

Statistic wise, conservatives don't want Social Security privatized. Bernie Sanders had to raise all kinds of hell to get Obama not to enact a chained CPI. Trump has no plans to screw with it.
Wouldn't want to vet all that, eh?

 

[Derideo_Te]

Well, then........case closed. It won't be necessary to try to go back and make 1927 a relevant thang, eh?

Why not? Vetting the candidate is a process that is both beneficial to the voter and painful to the candidate.

Agreed, but T-Rump sycophants will ignore the vetting because they want an AWG to represent them and so they will just consider all of the negative truth to be all the more reason to support him.

Yes, I know that defies logic and reason but we are talking T-Rump here. That alone defies all logic and reason.

 

[nuhuh]

You're not vetting him. You're scared.
Republicans are scared. Democrats are scared. Most importantly? The elite squad is scared. This little group is going to have a shake down for the next several election cycles.

Statistic wise, conservatives don't want Social Security privatized. Bernie Sanders had to raise all kinds of hell to get Obama not to enact a chained CPI. Trump has no plans to screw with it.
Wouldn't want to vet all that, eh?

I'm not scared of Donald Trump, in reality he is a Democrat so what would I be losing if he wins? Statistic wise, candidates will come along and try to change things to be a hero within the party. Witness George Bush and his attempts to privatize Social Security. Obama and Hillary are both wrong about Social Security but I trust my representatives to protect party interests.