Big El Nino predicted

Abraham3

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Aug 1, 2012
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El Nino could bring more record-breaking weather to United States - CBS News

A giant El Nino is expected this year, new weather models predict. It threatens to change weather patterns around the world, affecting billions of people.

An El Nino - meaning in Spanish "the little boy, or Christ child" - is created when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean warm significantly.

Significant, in this case, is just a half-degree Celsius. However, according to Time magazine senior writer Bryan Walsh, who covers energy and environmental issues, that's a lot, considering the Pacific's size.

Walsh explained on "CBS This Morning," "Over the course of a number of months, that actually changes weather patterns around the world, has a number of effects that are different in different parts of the world but generally result in a lot of warming, a lot of rain in some places, a lot of drought elsewhere and really just can have a lot of impact."

The last significant El Nino was in 1998, which was one of the warmest years on record.

An El Nino may bring rainfall that could bring long-term relief for some drought-ridden states, such as California. CBS NEWS
One of the most significant areas of damage that year involved massive damage to crops in South and Central America.
"You saw billions of dollars in damages from that El Nino," Walsh said. "You could see a similar amount from this one as well."

However, it's not all bad news during an El Nino year. Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more rainfall may happen in the U.S. - a boon for drought-ridden areas, such as California and Texas.

Walsh explained that El Ninos are a separate phenomenon from climate change but, according to some research, El Ninos may be more common in a warmer future.

Overall, the El Nino may just add to the Earth's warmth. He said, "We may have a year where 2014 or 2015 could become perhaps the warmest year on record when you add the effect of El Nino to the warming that's already happening."
 
El Nino could bring more record-breaking weather to United States - CBS News

A giant El Nino is expected this year, new weather models predict. It threatens to change weather patterns around the world, affecting billions of people.

An El Nino - meaning in Spanish "the little boy, or Christ child" - is created when the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean warm significantly.

Significant, in this case, is just a half-degree Celsius. However, according to Time magazine senior writer Bryan Walsh, who covers energy and environmental issues, that's a lot, considering the Pacific's size.

Walsh explained on "CBS This Morning," "Over the course of a number of months, that actually changes weather patterns around the world, has a number of effects that are different in different parts of the world but generally result in a lot of warming, a lot of rain in some places, a lot of drought elsewhere and really just can have a lot of impact."

The last significant El Nino was in 1998, which was one of the warmest years on record.

An El Nino may bring rainfall that could bring long-term relief for some drought-ridden states, such as California. CBS NEWS
One of the most significant areas of damage that year involved massive damage to crops in South and Central America.
"You saw billions of dollars in damages from that El Nino," Walsh said. "You could see a similar amount from this one as well."

However, it's not all bad news during an El Nino year. Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more rainfall may happen in the U.S. - a boon for drought-ridden areas, such as California and Texas.

Walsh explained that El Ninos are a separate phenomenon from climate change but, according to some research, El Ninos may be more common in a warmer future.

Overall, the El Nino may just add to the Earth's warmth. He said, "We may have a year where 2014 or 2015 could become perhaps the warmest year on record when you add the effect of El Nino to the warming that's already happening."

I remember on one El Nino year, everyone was out on the front lawn playing games and sitting around like it was Springtime but it was really Christmas day.
 
So where exactly does all that cyclical warmth come from? CO2??
If you wanted to play psychic here -- the last time we had a Huge El Nino -- the rate of temp rise FELL for 15 yrs after the spike.

Personally, I think we should invest in understanding and predicting the redistribution of warmth that CAUSES this -- rather than reacting like sorry-ass
Medieval serfs..
 
So where exactly does all that cyclical warmth come from? CO2??
If you wanted to play psychic here -- the last time we had a Huge El Nino -- the rate of temp rise FELL for 15 yrs after the spike.

Personally, I think we should invest in understanding and predicting the redistribution of warmth that CAUSES this -- rather than reacting like sorry-ass
Medieval serfs..
Well it did come from CFCs, which did in fact cause a deteriorated ozonosphere. That in turn permitted higher energy photons to reach the surface and thus warm the biosphere. However the normal holes in the ozone layer at the poles have shrunk a lot and the antarctic ice shelves are growing even in the summer as with past Christmas's problem of icebreakers getting frozen in from trying to rescue those eco-tourists.

As to trendlines I would strongly recommend a reading up on Chaos theory and/or power law distribution.
 
See that Polar Votex...AGW!

See that El Nino....AGW!

Pick anything on the Weather Channel and it's AGW!
 
It's right on time too. The experts said the La Nina would last ten years.

what a bizarre thing to say.

enso_and_olr.jpg

fig.3. Overlay of ENSO index (red and blue column graph) and ORL (black curve with red dots)

Clearly the warm El Niño periods correspond to lesser ORL, and the colder El Nina’s to higher ORL. The explanation is that higher SST’s during an El Niño cause more convection and clouds at higher atmospheric altitudes; the top of these clouds is colder and emits less IR, so the satellite measures a decline in ORL; the opposite happens during an El Nina. This increase in cloud cover during an El Niño is a feed-back associated with a change in SST (see NOAA site here).

what 10 year long Nina were you talking about?
 
Ten years ago experts said that we were moving into a protected la nina. As a resident of California where we get rain only seasonally, I pay attention to predictions of rain during our season. A long la nina was very disappointing. I am glad to see it coming to an end right on schedule.
 
Yay! I love El Nino years - lots of rain in CA!
 

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