Belarus to engage in a joint task force with Putin next week

[alexa]

The Leader of Belarus has said that he is engaging in a joint task with Russia near the border with Ukraine. This was reported on Democracy now. He went on to warn NATO not to put nukes in Poland which they took as a possible suggestion he was ready to take them himself. If you listen, he sounds like he is feeling he may be attacked. So if we are starting to have countries siding up and talking about nukes, this is the war that was never supposed to happen.

at 1min35 below

 

[Confederate Soldier]

Well this is really simple. The leader of Belarus is a Russian puppet dictator. It is his job to do whatever Putin wants. Putin is having trouble, so he needs Belarus to help out...

 

[para bellum]

Belarus has no army to speak of. They can't do independent operations, they are subordinate to Russia's 1st GTA. The ground forces command was dismantled in 2011-2012 when the RGF was created.

Belarus would be defenseless from an attack from Poland or Lithuania. Their entire northwestern flank is guarded by one mechanized bde and 2 arty bde's, both of which are at 50% manpower (if that). Even at full strength, this would only be 4,500 troops. It's actually about 2,000.

The only combat capable forces are the special forces bde's. There are 3, two airborne and one spetsnaz. They are the only ones who have done any training with Russia, and that only happens once every 4 years. They are fully manned, about 5,900 total. These are the only Belarusian forces Putin would be able to use.

The problem is that the 1st GTA is already badly mauled, so the component that is supposed to be the leader of the RGF has lost over half of their officers and experienced fighters. Reconstituting the 1st GTA with unwilling mobiks and Belarusian forces isn't going to turn it into a capable combat formation.

Russia sees Belarus first as a logistics hub, and second as a source of infantry for the 1st Guards Tank Army. All decisions regarding the Belarusian armed forces are made in Moscow. Lukashenko does not have a say.