oldfart
Older than dirt
Here are CBO's forecasts released yesterday.
The economic forecast that underlies CBO’s budget projections indicates that in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, gross domestic product will expand at an average annual pace of 2.1 percent over the next two years—if current laws generally remained unchanged—after rising last year at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. We expect that growth to boost employment, virtually eliminate the remaining slack in the economy, and drop the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2018.
Further ahead, according to CBO’s projections, GDP will expand at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent over the second half of the coming decade. That growth rate represents a significant slowdown from the average over the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, mainly because of the slower growth projected for the nation’s supply of labor, which largely results from the ongoing retirement of baby boomers and the relative stability in the labor force participation rate among working-age women.
As slack diminishes over the next two years, we expect the rate of inflation to rise to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2 percent and to stay there, on average....
These are the "baked-in" rates under current policy; i.e. what would happen with no changes under current law. Any variation, positive or negative, are presumably the result of the new administration and Congress's policies.
The economic forecast that underlies CBO’s budget projections indicates that in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, gross domestic product will expand at an average annual pace of 2.1 percent over the next two years—if current laws generally remained unchanged—after rising last year at an annual rate of 1.8 percent. We expect that growth to boost employment, virtually eliminate the remaining slack in the economy, and drop the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2018.
Further ahead, according to CBO’s projections, GDP will expand at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent over the second half of the coming decade. That growth rate represents a significant slowdown from the average over the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, mainly because of the slower growth projected for the nation’s supply of labor, which largely results from the ongoing retirement of baby boomers and the relative stability in the labor force participation rate among working-age women.
As slack diminishes over the next two years, we expect the rate of inflation to rise to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2 percent and to stay there, on average....
These are the "baked-in" rates under current policy; i.e. what would happen with no changes under current law. Any variation, positive or negative, are presumably the result of the new administration and Congress's policies.