courseofhistory
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- Aug 7, 2012
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Barack Obama is Winning
The final evidence isnt in yet, but there are strong indicators that Barack Obama received a real boost from the Democratic convention bigger than the paltry bump Mitt Romney got out of his partys gathering and potentially big enough to push Obamas national lead to heights not seen since Romney emerged from the GOP primaries back in the spring.
Gallups daily trendline, which remained flat during and immediately after the Republican convention, has spiked in Obamas favor over the last few days; as of Sunday afternoon, his lead was five points. Hes also pulled a few points ahead in Rasmussens daily poll, which has tended to be more Romney-friendly than other surveys, grabbed a four-point lead in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and seen his job approval rating crack the 50 percent mark. A PPP poll released Sunday night also showed Obama hitting 50 percent in Ohio. Overall, the Real Clear Politics average, which had shown a dead even race as the Democratic convention opened, has Obamas advantage climbing to 1.8 points and possibly still growing
The presidential race is not, and has not been, a virtual tie Obama is, and has been, winning. The RCP average tells the story well. When Rick Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10, it essentially ended the GOP nominating contest and certified Romney as the GOP nominee. In the days immediately following Santorums exit, the Obama-Romney race tightened, with Obamas edge shrinking from about five points to about two. But Romney failed to overtake Obama, and in the four-and-a-half months that followed, Obamas lead fluctuated between one and four points. Only in the immediate run-up to the GOP convention did Romney move into a genuine tie with Obama, but even the convention didnt push him into the lead, and now the race seems to be returning to where its been all along.