Are the Polls Accurate? Here is the Unbiased Data.

[Sherry]

If you're so confident, then no need to get your panties in a twist about a harmless conversation regarding polling...your defensive posturing is amusing.

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

 

[WelfareQueen]

WelfareQueen talked this same shit back in 2012.

Jesus dude....I know you're fucking dumb as a bag of rocks.....But can't you read? Right next to my name and my nice picture? I wasn't here in 2012.


Post = Fail. Try again.

 

[NYcarbineer]

WelfareQueen talked this same shit back in 2012.

Jesus dude....I know you're fucking dumb as a bag of rocks.....But can't you read? Right next to my name and my nice picture? I wasn't here in 2012.


Post = Fail. Try again.

Yes, but you were somewhere...

 

[NYcarbineer]

Pointing out how retarded people like you are is an exercise that never loses its value.

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

 

[WelfareQueen]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Only 1 in 10 people will pick up on unknown callers anymore. But the writing is on the wall when the Clinton Super Pac funds have left several battleground swing states. Their internal polling data is telling them they have a huge lead in these states, so they're taking those adds and putting them in RED states that they know are in play.
Confident Clinton Pulling Ads, as the Trump Train Goes Off the Rails | RedState
Relax, Donald Trump Can’t Win

And Trump's ground game is even worse.
Donald Trump ground-game problem

I am aware of this and agree it is a problem....right now. The question is will the problem still exist in a month or two. That...I can't say.

 

[Sherry]

WelfareQueen talked this same shit back in 2012.

Jesus dude....I know you're fucking dumb as a bag of rocks.....But can't you read? Right next to my name and my nice picture? I wasn't here in 2012.


Post = Fail. Try again.

 

[Carla_Danger]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

If the election were today, according to your link, Hillary has an 83% chance of winning. I don't think the angry white man vote is gonna be enough.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Sherry]

Awww you really are a sensitive little pussy.

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

 

[Shrimpbox]

One has to wonder if the polled public might not be wising up to the game? How many voters have phones that do not accept solicitations. How many callers are playing the pollsters?How many numbers have changed?

Or on the other end, how many fake polling units are set up to to,distort the average. There have been a number of reports of overweighted averages.

Finally this year one has to wonder just how fluid and temperamental the voters are. Will they flip a coin on Election Day, say a pox on both your houses, vote for the other guy or gal cause you are sick of all of it or just smoke another number and stay home?

This was a conversation I had last night with an elderly woman customer in the restaurant. She was wearing a giant size trump button. I told her she was a brave woman and I was proud of her. She was unabashedly a trump supporter and said she had just come from a family reunion where she wore the button. She was sitting with her son, a fifty something man who had given her the button. He said he had attended the trump rally in Jacksonville which was so packed they had to turn away 3000 people. The rally started 40 minutes late because trump met personally with five gold star families. I inquired about the energy at the rally, he said it was electric. I asked if the crowd was just a bunch of old white people and he said absolutely not, that 50 per cent of the crowd was millenials. I asked if they were there just for the celebrity of the event or whether they truly were supporting trump. He said they were into and fully supporting the Donald. It was hot and,this is the first week of August. We all agreed Donald had shot himself in the foot more times,than we could count but that there just wasn't a choice. As I thanked them and made ready to go the old lady told me that the main reason she was voting for trump was because of the Supreme Court.

I am already on record as saying all the anecdotal evidence from the last presidential election pointed to a different result than the one we got, so I am very skeptical of my instincts this time around. Karl Rove made a point of saying that participation at rallies was no indicator of final results. It is not the polling that bothers me so much, rather it is the fact that between my universe and the other universe there is no cross pollination, only a chasm. That I can operate throughout the whole southeast, in dozens of venues, and not come across a nest of diehard democrats who would buttress the polls defies probability. I do not deny the polling but I sure hope they are wrong this time.

 

[WelfareQueen]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

If the election were today, according to your link, Hillary has an 83% chance of winning. I don't think the angry white man vote is gonna be enough.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

And two weeks ago Nate Silver said Trump had a 58% chance of winning the election. Three months to go.....take a deep breath.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

I don't do grannies. Go flirt with someone else.

 

[WelfareQueen]

One has to wonder if the polled public might not be wising up to the game? How many voters have phones that do not accept solicitations. How many callers are playing the pollsters?How many numbers have changed?

Or on the other end, how many fake polling units are set up to to,distort the average. There have been a number of reports of overweighted averages.

Finally this year one has to wonder just how fluid and temperamental the voters are. Will they flip a coin on Election Day, say a pox on both your houses, vote for the other guy or gal cause you are sick of all of it or just smoke another number and stay home?

This was a conversation I had last night with an elderly woman customer in the restaurant. She was wearing a giant size trump button. I told her she was a brave woman and I was proud of her. She was unabashedly a trump supporter and said she had just come from a family reunion where she wore the button. She was sitting with her son, a fifty something man who had given her the button. He said he had attended the trump rally in Jacksonville which was so packed they had to turn away 3000 people. The rally started 40 minutes late because trump met personally with five gold star families. I inquired about the energy at the rally, he said it was electric. I asked if the crowd was just a bunch of old white people and he said absolutely not, that 50 per cent of the crowd was millenials. I asked if they were there just for the celebrity of the event or whether they truly were supporting trump. He said they were into and fully supporting the Donald. It was hot and,this is the first week of August. We all agreed Donald had shot himself in the foot more times,than we could count but that there just wasn't a choice. As I thanked them and made ready to go the old lady told me that the main reason she was voting for trump was because of the Supreme Court.

I am already on record as saying all the anecdotal evidence from the last presidential election pointed to a different result than the one we got, so I am very skeptical of my instincts this time around. Karl Rove made a point of saying that participation at rallies was no indicator of final results. It is not the polling that bothers me so much, rather it is the fact that between my universe and the other universe there is no cross pollination, only a chasm. That I can operate throughout the whole southeast, in dozens of venues, and not come across a nest of diehard democrats who would buttress the polls defies probability. I do not deny the polling but I sure hope they are wrong this time.

Excellent points imho...and largely echoed by Nate Silver. The polling in this years primaries was horrible. Remember Sanders was given zero chance of winning Michigan per the polls....yet he won. Silver said the polling was historically bad.

The bias for Hillary in the Dem primaries was off by 1.8%. That will win or lose about 1/2 of all elections. The GOP polling in this years primaries was almost as bad.

I think some skepticism of polling is warranted.

 

[Sherry]

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

I don't do grannies. Go flirt with someone else.

Poor thing...if you interpret that as flirting, you must be one hard up lonely loser. Stop trying to make me feel pity for you.

 

[HappyJoy]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

If the election were today, according to your link, Hillary has an 83% chance of winning. I don't think the angry white man vote is gonna be enough.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Actually it's worse for Trump, if the election were today Silver is showing a 91.7% chance of winning for Clinton.

 

[WelfareQueen]

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

I don't do grannies. Go flirt with someone else.

Poor thing...if you interpret that as flirting, you must be one hard up lonely loser. Stop trying to make me feel pity for you.

I'm pretty sure his "little friend" hasn't worked since the Carter Administration.

 

[WelfareQueen]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

If the election were today, according to your link, Hillary has an 83% chance of winning. I don't think the angry white man vote is gonna be enough.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Actually it's worse for Trump, if the election were today Silver is showing a 91.7% chance of winning for Clinton.

Too bad the election isn't being held today. If Nate has the same number a week before the election.....different story.

 

[NYcarbineer]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Hillary Clinton is winning Moderates by huge margins. That is fact in the polling that cannot be skewed.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Is that in contrast to your gigantic pussy?

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

You responded to my post, Fatty.

 

[WelfareQueen]

All elections are won by one simple factor......turnout. It truly is that simple. When 40% to 50% of the electorate doesn't show up to vote in Presidential elections what is important is who does show up to vote.

Obama won in 2008 and 2012 because the Dems enjoyed a 7%-8% turnout advantage over the GOP. Romney got high voter turnout from traditional GOP voters...but Obama got more. In fact, minority voters turned out for Obama 30% higher than any other election in history.

Pollsters obviously got things right in 2008 and 2012. Most built in a 7%-8% Dem turnout advantage. However, in the 2014 mid-terms the pollster fucked up big time. Remember all of those Senate races that were "too close to call." Remember Kentucky.....North Carolina....Kansas....Colorado.....Georgia. The GOP won every close Senate race but one...in New Hampshire.

The reason....The pollsters on average had the GOP with a 1.5% turnout advantage, when in fact it was 4.5%. That 3% margin is the sole difference between winning and losing elections.

So that brings us to 2016. Here is data from Nate Silver (hardly a GOP supporter).

FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings


You can see the built in bias from each polling organization. Notice most of the biggest pollsters and factoring in a slight Dem turnout advantage. Internal data I have seen is indicating the GOP should have between a +2% to 5% turnout advantage this election cycle. If so Trump probably wins the election. That is not currently reflected in virtually any polls. Please note...almost all the major polling organizations are now showing a slight Dem turnout advantage. I am very skeptical to say the least.

Here is another excellent article about polling from Nate Silver. I think this is very fair and accurate.

The State Of The Polls, 2016

I am copying Doc because he has been a political operative and I am curious what he thinks. Please add your comments if you are interested. Thanks.


theDoctorisIn

Hillary Clinton is winning Moderates by huge margins. That is fact in the polling that cannot be skewed.

Nope...per all the polling I have seen, Trump is winning with self-identified Independents and moderates.

 

[Sherry]

I give you credit for admitting that you're a pussy.

You'll be long gone the day after the election.

I've been around here longer than you, and I'm sure that I'll continue to find ways to get under your thin skin.

Based on your posts, it's clear that you've been around longer than the dinosaurs.

I appreciate you following my posts so intently...now I feel bad for not paying any attention to you. Sorry, bro.

You responded to my post, Fatty.

Just because you're acting all pitiful doesn't mean that I'm going to start noticing your posts outside of this thread, and I don't think you should take that personally and get all bent, dude.