Annie
Diamond Member
- Nov 22, 2003
- 50,848
- 4,827
- 1,790
Oh crap!
I was almost impressed until I saw it was a Rassmussen poll.
Yes republicans....America loves you.....you don't have to change a thing
LOL!
TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo | Grading The National Polls: Rasmussen In First, Gallup And Zogby Last
Grading The National Polls: Rasmussen In First, Gallup And Zogby Last
By Eric Kleefeld - November 5, 2008, 2:46PM
So looking back on our polling obsession about this race, which pollsters actually did the best job of calling this race, comparing the final polls to the actual results?
Taking a look at the national polls, who was correct in predicting Barack Obama at around 52%, and who got the right margin of a six-point popular vote win over John McCain?
Take a look at these final polls:
Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
GWU: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Research 2000: Obama 51% McCain 46%
Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 43%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 42%
ABC/WaPo: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
CBS: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
Fox News: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50%, McCain 42%.
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
Gallup: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
Most of these polls were on target with Obama winning by five to seven points, and quite a few of them had him in the neighborhood of 52% support. The first prize goes to Rasmussen for nailing the 52%-46% figure exactly. Research 2000 is close behind with their 51%-46% figure. Gallup was way off in giving Obama an 11-point win, but they did have Obama's support at just over the true result of 52%. And Zogby also gave Obama an 11-point lead, at a 54% level of support.
Also, the final Pew poll allocated its undecideds based on demographics and answers to key issue questions. Their prediction: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.