A tale of 2 Quinnipiacs - from Florida

[Statistikhengst]

This is interesting for a number of reasons. And a bad omen for the GOP if Hillary Clinton ends up being the Democratic nominee.

In 2013, the state of Florida was polled for 2016 pres matchups 6 times, making for 16 match-ups, all of which Hillary Clinton won.

You can see that data for 5 of those six polls here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...UlSZU52bGdZemNzZ2VNVmVRYnc&usp=sharing#gid=10

The 6th poll, from Quinnipiac, came in in December, after I had already done the "Hillary vs. GOP analysis III", which you can read here:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: 2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part III

Today, an update of the Quinnipiac, post- "Bridgegate", came in, and the results are pretty eye-popping:

(numbers in parentheses = value from the last Quinnipiac)

Today's Quinnipiac:

Florida (FL) Poll - January 31, 2014 - Bridgegate Drives Christie To | Quinnipiac University Connecticut


Clinton (D): 49 (47)
Bush, J. (R): 43 (45)
margin: Clinton +7 (+2)
margin shift from November 2013: Clinton +5

Clinton (D): 52 (50)
Ryan (R): 39 (42)
margin: Clinton +13 (+8)
margin shift from November 2013: Clinton +5

Clinton (D): 53 (51)
Paul (R): 38 (41)
margin: Clinton +15 (+10)
margin shift from November 2013: Clinton +5

Clinton (D): 51 (45)
Christie (R): 35 (41)
margin: Clinton +16 (+4)
margin shift from November 2013: Clinton +12

Clinton (D): 54 (52)
Cruz (R): 34 (36)
margin: Clinton +20 (+16)
margin shift from November 2013: Clinton +5

Ok, what to take away from this:

1.) There is a substantial change in margin over Chris Christie. In November, Hillary was in the mid 40s and only 4 up on Christie, she is now 16 up. Her margin over Gov. Christie has QUADRUPLED. Of the 5 polls, three polls showed a margin shift of +5 toward Hillary, one showed a shift of +4 toward Hillary, and then there is this massive jump of +12 in the race against Christie, which is why it stands out so much.

2.) the margins from this latest poll range from +7 (against Bush, J) to +20 (against Cruz). Even "just" a +7 would be higher than any presidential candidate has won in Florida since 1988!

3.) I have looked at all Florida polling for 2008, 2004. 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988 (only a scattering), 1980 (2 polls), 1976 (6 polls) and cannot find one single poll with as many high values for a Democrat as Hillary has been enjoying all through 2013.

Now, this is just one poll, but the change over the last poll from Quinnipiac is significant.

And now, with 7 polls and 21 matchups, Clinton has won every single one of them.

The last time a Democrat won Florida with a double-digit margin was with Truman (D) in 1948. Even with the highest winning percentage a President has ever won (1964, 61.05%), Johnson (D) carried Florida by only +2.30%. You can see all the past presidential margins in Florida here for yourself:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=12&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state

So, a Democrat polling in double digits in Florida is a real warning sign for the GOP.

Now, a PPP (D) poll of Florida should be rolling along in the next couple of days, and it will be interesting to see what the numbers look like. PPP (D) was one of only two pollsters to correctly predict Florida for Obama in 2012, btw.


----------------------------------------------------------------------

How did Quinnipiac do in 2012? You can read that HERE:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

More recently, Quinnipiac was the closest to Terry McAuliffe's margin in the Virginia Gubernatorial from November 2013.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Again, this is just one poll, and polls can be wrong. But they cannot ALL be wrong. And ALL polling in Florida, from 2013 to current, is pointing in the same direction: in the Sunshine State, Hillary is cleaning the GOP's clock, plain and simple.

Without Florida in it's electoral column, the GOP simply cannot win nationally.

 

[Statistikhengst]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24610]iamwhatiseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=46690]Libertarianman[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=41494]RandallFlagg[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=43491]TooTall[/MENTION] [MENTION=25451]tinydancer[/MENTION] [MENTION=31918]Unkotare[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=42498]Esmeralda[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=11703]strollingbones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18988]PixieStix[/MENTION] [MENTION=23262]peach174[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=22889]Matthew[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=24122]racewright[/MENTION] [MENTION=5176]RetiredGySgt[/MENTION] [MENTION=44536]BobPlumb[/MENTION] [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] [MENTION=39072]mamooth[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION] [MENTION=41423]NoTeaPartyPleez[/MENTION] [MENTION=6882]JimH52[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.

Thanks,

-Stat

 

[Spoonman]

when it comes to the president polls are pretty useless. the electoral talks. red states are going red, blue blue. its the swing states that matter. democrats haven't delivered for the swing states they won. if it Christie, even though NJ is a blue state. Christie will carry it. that's a should be in the bag blue state Hillary will lose. that's a pretty big swing.

 

[racewright]

Hope she does not run as they say that will finish us off. Not the Republicans but the country. But if she has to deal with a GOP controlled House maybe like slick Willie she is smart enough to negotiate as he did..OWEbama is not smart enough to sit down at the bargaining table and get things done, Willie was.

But will be interesting to see if the Black and HIP HOP vote comes out for her like they did for the big O

 

[Statistikhengst]

when it comes to the president polls are pretty useless. the electoral talks. red states are going red, blue blue. its the swing states that matter. democrats haven't delivered for the swing states they won. if it Christie, even though NJ is a blue state. Christie will carry it. that's a should be in the bag blue state Hillary will lose. that's a pretty big swing.

Hey, Spoonman, nice to hear from you! I am simply putting out the current data.

Oh, and BTW, more then one person, including Nate Silver, has proven that early polling is often more predictive than people may think.

And in the latest New Jersey poll:

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2014/ChristieRatingsGWBScandalJan2014.pdf

Clinton 55
Christie 34
margin: Clinton +21


Final Rutgers poll of 2012:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao6IyAPQ8DmmdDhyOXA2ay13c2ozTEVsOWlpTWNheEE#gid=33

Obama +17
Final result: Obama +17.74% (+18)

Rutgers nailed it in 2012.

 

[HenryBHough]

Smart voters chose Kerry 'cause he could have accelerated the rot and gotten America to rock bottom quickest - so rebuilding could begin.

Now, in 2016, there'll be another opportunity and it's hard to believe Americans won't choose to take the medicine, elect Shrillary, and get it over with. Of course it would also be necessary to give her both House and Senate so there is the chance she won't have all the tools to finish the job fast and the suffering will go on longer than it has to.

Silly voters!

 

[Sallow]

Christie's done.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hope she does not run as they say that will finish us off. Not the Republicans but the country. But if she has to deal with a GOP controlled House maybe like slick Willie she is smart enough to negotiate as he did..OWEbama is not smart enough to sit down at the bargaining table and get things done, Willie was.

But will be interesting to see if the Black and HIP HOP vote comes out for her like they did for the big O

Well, ignoring the obvious quasi-racist jab you just took, historically, Democratic candidates have taken around 90% of the black vote. Obama got 93% in 2008 and 94% in 2012, 4% higher. So, yeah, the black vote will come out for Hillary.

 

[Wolfsister77]

As I've said many times, if Hillary runs, she will win. There isn't a candidate who can beat her on the GOP side. Christie was the closest, but he pretty much screwed himself with these latest scandals and will have a hard time shaking the bully image. Hillary has experience and is tough and capable. Benghazi is only an issue against her to those who won't vote for her anyway and they aren't enough to keep her out of the WH.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Oh and Christie won't take NJ.

 

[Statistikhengst]

As I've said many times, if Hillary runs, she will win. There isn't a candidate who can beat her on the GOP side. Christie was the closest, but he pretty much screwed himself with these latest scandals and will have a hard time shaking the bully image. Hillary has experience and is tough and capable. Benghazi is only an issue against her to those who won't vote for her anyway and they aren't enough to keep her out of the WH.

Right now, her path to the Presidency is the easiest path our nation has seen since Eisenhower in 1952. That of course can change, but the numbers back up my supposition.

A Democratic candidate who is so far ahead in FL and VA this early in the game --- well, it's a definite harbinger of things to come.

 

[william the wie]

Hope she does not run as they say that will finish us off. Not the Republicans but the country. But if she has to deal with a GOP controlled House maybe like slick Willie she is smart enough to negotiate as he did..OWEbama is not smart enough to sit down at the bargaining table and get things done, Willie was.

But will be interesting to see if the Black and HIP HOP vote comes out for her like they did for the big O

Well, ignoring the obvious quasi-racist jab you just took, historically, Democratic candidates have taken around 90% of the black vote. Obama got 93% in 2008 and 94% in 2012, 4% higher. So, yeah, the black vote will come out for Hillary.

But turnout is problematic. I suspect that ACA network densities and locations will play a huge part in black turnout in 2016, for Hispanic too. However I don't expect that to be measurable in polling data until the second qtr. of 2015 after the business group policies expire.

 

[Zander]

We will see what happens. but personally, I do not think Hillary is liberal enough to win the Democrat nomination. Even on this forum Democrats prefer Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders over her. Between now and the primaries many other candidates will enter the race. One or more will rise and beat her. Just like 2008.

She'd better look out for Jerry Brown.....and Elizabeth Warren..

 

[Spoonman]

when it comes to the president polls are pretty useless. the electoral talks. red states are going red, blue blue. its the swing states that matter. democrats haven't delivered for the swing states they won. if it Christie, even though NJ is a blue state. Christie will carry it. that's a should be in the bag blue state Hillary will lose. that's a pretty big swing.

Hey, Spoonman, nice to hear from you! I am simply putting out the current data.

Oh, and BTW, more then one person, including Nate Silver, has proven that early polling is often more predictive than people may think.

Oh, and in the lastest New Jersey poll?

http://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~redlawsk/EP/Tables2014/ChristieRatingsGWBScandalJan2014.pdf

Clinton 55
Christie 34
margin: Clinton +21


Final Rutgers poll of 2012:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao6IyAPQ8DmmdDhyOXA2ay13c2ozTEVsOWlpTWNheEE#gid=33

Obama +17
Final result: Obama +17.74% (+18)

Rutgers nailed it in 2012.

yea, its data. maybe closer to the popular vote, but its a far cry from the electoral. bridgegate is yesterdays news in 2016. they still have to tie him to it. Hillary has a weak performance as secretary of state to draw on. she'll be hammered with, what are you going to do about healthcare in 2016. obamacare will be rating even lower than it is today. plus by them it will be evident it doesn't come close to funding itself. Hillary is anti gun, gun rights activists are a rapidly growing majority. anti gun is no where to be in the near future. some real bad blood between Hillary and Obama. ugly campaign, blacks are going to remember that. I think her support from the black community will be far less than average.

 

[JoeB131]

I'm not sure if it means a lot at this point. this is really just name recogniztion...

 

[jillian]

Christie's done.

if what they are saying is true, he is finished.

if it turns out by some stroke of luck that the allegations are unfounded, christie will benefit from people thinking he was somehow mistreated.

that said, what was said today doesn't exactly increase one's faith in him.

 

[Spoonman]

Christie's done.

if what they are saying is true, he is finished.

if it turns out by some stroke of luck that the allegations are unfounded, christie will benefit from people thinking he was somehow mistreated.

that said, what was said today doesn't exactly increase one's faith in him.

Hey Jillian, great to see you

 

[Defiant1]

As I've said many times, if Hillary runs, she will win. There isn't a candidate who can beat her on the GOP side. Christie was the closest, but he pretty much screwed himself with these latest scandals and will have a hard time shaking the bully image. Hillary has experience and is tough and capable. Benghazi is only an issue against her to those who won't vote for her anyway and they aren't enough to keep her out of the WH.

Right now, her path to the Presidency is the easiest path our nation has seen since Eisenhower in 1952. That of course can change, but the numbers back up my supposition.

A Democratic candidate who is so far ahead in FL and VA this early in the game --- well, it's a definite harbinger of things to come.

Her health isn't that good. Odds are she'll keel over dead before the election.

Hopefully someone will capture it on video.

 

[RandallFlagg]

As I've said many times, if Hillary runs, she will win. There isn't a candidate who can beat her on the GOP side. Christie was the closest, but he pretty much screwed himself with these latest scandals and will have a hard time shaking the bully image. Hillary has experience and is tough and capable. Benghazi is only an issue against her to those who won't vote for her anyway and they aren't enough to keep her out of the WH.

Right now, her path to the Presidency is the easiest path our nation has seen since Eisenhower in 1952. That of course can change, but the numbers back up my supposition.

A Democratic candidate who is so far ahead in FL and VA this early in the game --- well, it's a definite harbinger of things to come.

Wow….the stupidity never ceases to amaze me on this forum. So that fat murdering bitch already has it won, right?

I suggest that you go back to the last time the fat ass ran. At this point in time she was way out in front of her nearest competitor. She lost.

I tend to agree that that wicked son of a bitch will run and there is a better than even chance that you communists and marxists will get your wish - the final destruction of this country. Hell, there isn't an ethical liberal on this site. Not one of you want to hold that sorry bitch to account - hell, you don't care. As long as the ends justify the means, you are happy.

God help us.

 

[jillian]

As I've said many times, if Hillary runs, she will win. There isn't a candidate who can beat her on the GOP side. Christie was the closest, but he pretty much screwed himself with these latest scandals and will have a hard time shaking the bully image. Hillary has experience and is tough and capable. Benghazi is only an issue against her to those who won't vote for her anyway and they aren't enough to keep her out of the WH.

Right now, her path to the Presidency is the easiest path our nation has seen since Eisenhower in 1952. That of course can change, but the numbers back up my supposition.

A Democratic candidate who is so far ahead in FL and VA this early in the game --- well, it's a definite harbinger of things to come.

Her health isn't that good. Odds are she'll keel over dead before the election.

Hopefully someone will capture it on video.

does it bother you to be that vile and messed up in the head?