2014 Primary Calendar

[Statistikhengst]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf

This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.

Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.

It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:

You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.

The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.

The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.

I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.

We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.

One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.

For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.

In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.

There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.

Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.

So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.

I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.

-Stat


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional sources:

United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 General Election

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

 

[Statistikhengst]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24610]iamwhatiseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=46690]Libertarianman[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=41494]RandallFlagg[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=43491]TooTall[/MENTION] [MENTION=25451]tinydancer[/MENTION] [MENTION=31918]Unkotare[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=42498]Esmeralda[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=11703]strollingbones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18988]PixieStix[/MENTION] [MENTION=23262]peach174[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=22889]Matthew[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=24122]racewright[/MENTION] [MENTION=5176]RetiredGySgt[/MENTION] [MENTION=44536]BobPlumb[/MENTION] [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] [MENTION=39072]mamooth[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION] [MENTION=41423]NoTeaPartyPleez[/MENTION] [MENTION=6882]JimH52[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.


This is going to be the last mention list for a couple of months.

Thanks,

-Stat

 

[Jroc]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24610]iamwhatiseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=46690]Libertarianman[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=41494]RandallFlagg[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=43491]TooTall[/MENTION] [MENTION=25451]tinydancer[/MENTION] [MENTION=31918]Unkotare[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=42498]Esmeralda[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=11703]strollingbones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18988]PixieStix[/MENTION] [MENTION=23262]peach174[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=22889]Matthew[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=24122]racewright[/MENTION] [MENTION=5176]RetiredGySgt[/MENTION] [MENTION=44536]BobPlumb[/MENTION] [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] [MENTION=39072]mamooth[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION] [MENTION=41423]NoTeaPartyPleez[/MENTION] [MENTION=6882]JimH52[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.


This is going to be the last mention list for a couple of months.

Thanks,

-Stat

You deserve a rep for typing all those @..the Senate is there for the taking as long as the Republicans don't screw it up. If they don't win the senate it'll be their own fault

 

[Statistikhengst]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24610]iamwhatiseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=46690]Libertarianman[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=41494]RandallFlagg[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=43491]TooTall[/MENTION] [MENTION=25451]tinydancer[/MENTION] [MENTION=31918]Unkotare[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=42498]Esmeralda[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=11703]strollingbones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18988]PixieStix[/MENTION] [MENTION=23262]peach174[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=22889]Matthew[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=24122]racewright[/MENTION] [MENTION=5176]RetiredGySgt[/MENTION] [MENTION=44536]BobPlumb[/MENTION] [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] [MENTION=39072]mamooth[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION] [MENTION=41423]NoTeaPartyPleez[/MENTION] [MENTION=6882]JimH52[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.


This is going to be the last mention list for a couple of months.

Thanks,

-Stat

You deserve a rep for typing all those @..the Senate is there for the taking as long as the Republicans don't screw it up. If they don't win the senate it'll be their own fault

[MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION]

Statistically, the GOP has the superior hand in the Senate for the mid-terms, which is right in line with historical precedent concerning opposition parties and mid-term elections. They only need to pick up 6 without losing any. This should be doable. The DEMS needed 6 seats in 2006, and they picked them up. But considering the damage that some Tea Party candidates did in 2010 and in 2012, I will simply wait and see and watch the numbers.

Considering the number of retirements in the House, I see no way that the DEMS can take the House, unless of course a major catastrophe strikes the GOP. In fact, looking at seats in lean districts that stay solid just because of a DEM with a lot of name recognition, seats that will now be open due to retirement of said DEMs, there are now more pick-up opportunities for the GOP than for the DEMS in the House. My money is currently on the GOP picking up 8-11 seats net, but this will probably change again.

The Gubernatorial races look like more of a mixed bag to me. People tend to understimate the important of WHO is in the State Executive during a presidency.

Notice how easy it was for me to write that without any political inflection. When it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. Math is math and doesn't know an ideology.

Glad you stopped by.

 

[Wolfsister77]

This is all very interesting Stat, thanks for doing it. I will subscribe and keep checking. I also like numbers because they don't lie. Great analysis.

 

[william the wie]

The R strategy of dominating state governments in order to marginalize D up and comers, how is that working out?

 

[TemplarKormac]

I do believe Democrats have a very real shot of losing the Senate this year. Republicans need only 6 seats to take a majority, conversely, Democrats are defending 21 seats in the Senate. Yes, 21. The Democrats won't win the House, they have too steep a hill to climb.

 

[TemplarKormac]

I might add, that if Republicans push for amnesty, they will most assuredly hand the Senate back to the Democrats this year.

 

[JimH52]

I might add, that if Republicans push for amnesty, they will most assuredly hand the Senate back to the Democrats this year.

That is exactly what they are doing. Just keep watching.

 

[joshuah]

Unless I'm missing something Texas and Illinois seats should stay red and blue regardless, so looks like the first interesting activity primary-wise will be North Carolina in May... Democrat Hagan won with 53% in the D wave of 2008, sounds like a hard seat to defend against a mid-term R-wave, but depending on the field whoever her opponent is could make or break it.

 

[candycorn]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf

This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.

Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.

It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:

You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.

The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.

The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.

I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.

We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.

One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.

For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.

In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.

There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.

Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.

So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.

I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.

-Stat


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional sources:

United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 General Election

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

 

[Statistikhengst]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf

This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.

Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.

It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:

You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.

The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.

The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.

I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.

We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.

One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.

For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.

In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.

There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.

Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.

So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.

I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.

-Stat


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional sources:

United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 General Election

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

[MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION]:

Pos rep is gladly accepted! (wink wink)

As for the smaller states, some of them just have a very long tradition of coming later, but that was not always so.

Look at 09/09: essentially, what we see is a Northeast Primary data. In 2008, I called them the Potomac primaries. Either way, I am not convinced that it has to do with incumbents.

However, we clearly see that crunch-time is from middle-May to the first week in June. There, 1/2 of all Senate primaries will be completed and most of them are the marquee races.

There are no official federal statues for this, because the nuts and bolts of electioneering are not clearly enumerated in the Constitution. That is one of the key points I brought up in this epic thread:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/clean-debate-zone/333884-electioneering.html


Hope that helps. Good to hear from you.

 

[william the wie]

I might add, that if Republicans push for amnesty, they will most assuredly hand the Senate back to the Democrats this year.

That is the stated goal of the house caucus even though a different name is used.

 

[william the wie]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf

This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.

Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.

It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:

You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.

The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.

The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.

I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.

We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.

One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.

For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.

In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.

There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.

Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.

So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.

I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.

-Stat


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional sources:

United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 General Election

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

[MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION]:

Pos rep is gladly accepted! (wink wink)

As for the smaller states, some of them just have a very long tradition of coming later, but that was not always so.

Look at 09/09: essentially, what we see is a Northeast Primary data. In 2008, I called them the Potomac primaries. Either way, I am not convinced that it has to do with incumbents.

However, we clearly see that crunch-time is from middle-May to the first week in June. There, 1/2 of all Senate primaries will be completed and most of them are the marquee races.

There are no official federal statues for this, because the nuts and bolts of electioneering are not clearly enumerated in the Constitution. That is one of the key points I brought up in this epic thread:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/clean-debate-zone/333884-electioneering.html


Hope that helps. Good to hear from you.

Polling data on the rate of growth of unpopularity for ACA is probably needed to accurately call the races.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

[MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION]:

Pos rep is gladly accepted! (wink wink)

As for the smaller states, some of them just have a very long tradition of coming later, but that was not always so.

Look at 09/09: essentially, what we see is a Northeast Primary data. In 2008, I called them the Potomac primaries. Either way, I am not convinced that it has to do with incumbents.

However, we clearly see that crunch-time is from middle-May to the first week in June. There, 1/2 of all Senate primaries will be completed and most of them are the marquee races.

There are no official federal statues for this, because the nuts and bolts of electioneering are not clearly enumerated in the Constitution. That is one of the key points I brought up in this epic thread:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/clean-debate-zone/333884-electioneering.html


Hope that helps. Good to hear from you.

Polling data on the rate of growth of unpopularity for ACA is probably needed to accurately call the races.

Perhaps, perhaps not. Even American votes are generally not one-issue voters. And esp. for congressional seats, the old adage "all politics is local" is definitely appropo for mid-terms, I believe.

 

[candycorn]

http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf

This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.

Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.

It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:

You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.

The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.

The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.

I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.

We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.

One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.

For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.

In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.

There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.

Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.

So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.

I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.

-Stat


--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional sources:

United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 General Election

RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

[MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION]:

Pos rep is gladly accepted! (wink wink)

As for the smaller states, some of them just have a very long tradition of coming later, but that was not always so.

Look at 09/09: essentially, what we see is a Northeast Primary data. In 2008, I called them the Potomac primaries. Either way, I am not convinced that it has to do with incumbents.
However, we clearly see that crunch-time is from middle-May to the first week in June. There, 1/2 of all Senate primaries will be completed and most of them are the marquee races.
There are no official federal statues for this, because the nuts and bolts of electioneering are not clearly enumerated in the Constitution. That is one of the key points I brought up in this epic thread:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/clean-debate-zone/333884-electioneering.html
Hope that helps. Good to hear from you.

When you're talking about driving from one side of Delaware to another, you can do that during rush hour. When you're talking about driving from one side of Florida to another, you better pack a lunch because you're going to be there for a while.

Fact: A shorter campaign season favors incumbents. The public (voting public anyway) knows who they are, at least has heard their name on television and radio for the length of his or her term, and they can use the power of their office to grandstand and compel free media coverage.

Fact; In one way or the other, an incumbent at least had some influence on when the State they work for set the date for their primaries.

-----

When your strong hold is the Orlando-Tampa corridor, you may be okay. If you're stronghold is Pensacola to Jacksonville, you are in big trouble since the population centers are further to the South. If you stage that primary in July, that gives him or her 3 months to get their message out instead of 2; it also gives the voters time to both decide whom to support and to whom to contribute.

If you're in Delaware, you can make an insurgency much easier than you can in Florida.

My message is that it doesn't matter so much in smaller states since broadcast radio and television being what it is; covers much more of the small States. In Florida, you have to buy air time in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola (most over 140 miles apart TPA-MCO is 84 miles). There is no bleed-over in media. If you're in Delaware, what, Wilmington and Dover perhaps?

In a small state, it's practical. In a larger state...I'm not so sure there wasn't some influence to protect the incumbents. Maybe not.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I wanted to join the chorus of "thank you's" for the good job.
One thing I'm struck by is that the smaller the square mileage of the State, the later in the calendar the primary date seems to be.

Florida seems to be the most glaring exception with their primary in late August and election in early November; giving candidates just 2 months to really canvas the state. In the primaries, you generally try to get out your vote and stick to your home town/districts/region. Now it seems that on 8/26 you're pronounced the winner and you have just over 2 months to start going state wide. Arizona has theirs the same day but there are thousands of square acres of AZ where nobody lives. Florida is pretty dense.

If I were cynical, I would think that this is set-up to favor the incumbents since they've had an entire term to get their name "out there" and, presumably, will have the advantage of incumbency in November.

Am I way off on this or is there something I'm missing. Should we have some sort of federal statute requiring states to have elections by 8/15 or 7/31?

[MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION]:

Pos rep is gladly accepted! (wink wink)

As for the smaller states, some of them just have a very long tradition of coming later, but that was not always so.

Look at 09/09: essentially, what we see is a Northeast Primary data. In 2008, I called them the Potomac primaries. Either way, I am not convinced that it has to do with incumbents.
However, we clearly see that crunch-time is from middle-May to the first week in June. There, 1/2 of all Senate primaries will be completed and most of them are the marquee races.
There are no official federal statues for this, because the nuts and bolts of electioneering are not clearly enumerated in the Constitution. That is one of the key points I brought up in this epic thread:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/clean-debate-zone/333884-electioneering.html
Hope that helps. Good to hear from you.

When you're talking about driving from one side of Delaware to another, you can do that during rush hour. When you're talking about driving from one side of Florida to another, you better pack a lunch because you're going to be there for a while.

Fact: A shorter campaign season favors incumbents. The public (voting public anyway) knows who they are, at least has heard their name on television and radio for the length of his or her term, and they can use the power of their office to grandstand and compel free media coverage.

Fact; In one way or the other, an incumbent at least had some influence on when the State they work for set the date for their primaries.

-----

When your strong hold is the Orlando-Tampa corridor, you may be okay. If you're stronghold is Pensacola to Jacksonville, you are in big trouble since the population centers are further to the South. If you stage that primary in July, that gives him or her 3 months to get their message out instead of 2; it also gives the voters time to both decide whom to support and to whom to contribute.

If you're in Delaware, you can make an insurgency much easier than you can in Florida.

My message is that it doesn't matter so much in smaller states since broadcast radio and television being what it is; covers much more of the small States. In Florida, you have to buy air time in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola (most over 140 miles apart TPA-MCO is 84 miles). There is no bleed-over in media. If you're in Delaware, what, Wilmington and Dover perhaps?

In a small state, it's practical. In a larger state...I'm not so sure there wasn't some influence to protect the incumbents. Maybe not.

Oh, now that you put it that way, I agree with the logic all the way. I think the Whiskey is making my brain slooooooooooooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!

 

[MarcATL]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP: [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=40495]AngelsNDemons[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=26011]Ernie S.[/MENTION] [MENTION=9429]AVG-JOE[/MENTION] [MENTION=45886]Mad_Cabbie[/MENTION] [MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=25505]Jroc[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=21679]william the wie[/MENTION] [MENTION=23424]syrenn[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=37250]aaronleland[/MENTION] [MENTION=36767]Bloodrock44[/MENTION] [MENTION=36528]cereal_killer[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION] [MENTION=30999]daws101[/MENTION] [MENTION=46449]Delta4Embassy[/MENTION] [MENTION=33449]BreezeWood[/MENTION] [MENTION=31362]gallantwarrior[/MENTION] [MENTION=24610]iamwhatiseem[/MENTION] [MENTION=46750]Knightfall[/MENTION] [MENTION=46690]Libertarianman[/MENTION] [MENTION=20450]MarcATL[/MENTION] [MENTION=20594]Mr Clean[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=43268]TemplarKormac[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=41494]RandallFlagg[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=21357]SFC Ollie[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=43491]TooTall[/MENTION] [MENTION=25451]tinydancer[/MENTION] [MENTION=31918]Unkotare[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=21524]oldfart[/MENTION] [MENTION=42498]Esmeralda[/MENTION] [MENTION=43888]AyeCantSeeYou[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=11703]strollingbones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18988]PixieStix[/MENTION] [MENTION=23262]peach174[/MENTION] [MENTION=13805]Againsheila[/MENTION] [MENTION=38085]Noomi[/MENTION] [MENTION=18905]Sherry[/MENTION] [MENTION=29697]freedombecki[/MENTION] [MENTION=38146]Dajjal[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=46193]Thx[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=24452]Seawytch[/MENTION] [MENTION=29614]C_Clayton_Jones[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=22983]Flopper[/MENTION] [MENTION=22889]Matthew[/MENTION] [MENTION=46136]dreolin[/MENTION] [MENTION=19867]G.T.[/MENTION] [MENTION=19302]Montrovant[/MENTION] [MENTION=24208]Spoonman[/MENTION] [MENTION=24122]racewright[/MENTION] [MENTION=5176]RetiredGySgt[/MENTION] [MENTION=44536]BobPlumb[/MENTION] [MENTION=46351]Shrimpbox[/MENTION] [MENTION=39072]mamooth[/MENTION] [MENTION=45320]Nyvin[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=39688]RosieS[/MENTION] [MENTION=41423]NoTeaPartyPleez[/MENTION] [MENTION=6882]JimH52[/MENTION]


Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately.


This is going to be the last mention list for a couple of months.

Thanks,

-Stat

Once again, thanks for another excellent thread.

What I take away is that the American People are sick and tired of bully's and they will not stand for a President that is so vindictive and petty will do things like shutting down bridges that end up ultimately harming the community and constituents themselves.

 

[Shanty]

When you're talking about driving from one side of Delaware to another, you can do that during rush hour. When you're talking about driving from one side of Florida to another, you better pack a lunch because you're going to be there for a while.

Fact: A shorter campaign season favors incumbents. The public (voting public anyway) knows who they are, at least has heard their name on television and radio for the length of his or her term, and they can use the power of their office to grandstand and compel free media coverage.

Fact; In one way or the other, an incumbent at least had some influence on when the State they work for set the date for their primaries.

-----

When your strong hold is the Orlando-Tampa corridor, you may be okay. If you're stronghold is Pensacola to Jacksonville, you are in big trouble since the population centers are further to the South. If you stage that primary in July, that gives him or her 3 months to get their message out instead of 2; it also gives the voters time to both decide whom to support and to whom to contribute.

If you're in Delaware, you can make an insurgency much easier than you can in Florida.

My message is that it doesn't matter so much in smaller states since broadcast radio and television being what it is; covers much more of the small States. In Florida, you have to buy air time in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola (most over 140 miles apart TPA-MCO is 84 miles). There is no bleed-over in media. If you're in Delaware, what, Wilmington and Dover perhaps?

In a small state, it's practical. In a larger state...I'm not so sure there wasn't some influence to protect the incumbents. Maybe not.

Delaware has a closer relationship between its elected officials in the State Assembly and voters. But to get the airtime for much of Delaware, you have to buy time in mostly Philadelphia markets, which are amongst the most expensive in the nation.

 

[candycorn]

When you're talking about driving from one side of Delaware to another, you can do that during rush hour. When you're talking about driving from one side of Florida to another, you better pack a lunch because you're going to be there for a while.

Fact: A shorter campaign season favors incumbents. The public (voting public anyway) knows who they are, at least has heard their name on television and radio for the length of his or her term, and they can use the power of their office to grandstand and compel free media coverage.

Fact; In one way or the other, an incumbent at least had some influence on when the State they work for set the date for their primaries.

-----

When your strong hold is the Orlando-Tampa corridor, you may be okay. If you're stronghold is Pensacola to Jacksonville, you are in big trouble since the population centers are further to the South. If you stage that primary in July, that gives him or her 3 months to get their message out instead of 2; it also gives the voters time to both decide whom to support and to whom to contribute.

If you're in Delaware, you can make an insurgency much easier than you can in Florida.

My message is that it doesn't matter so much in smaller states since broadcast radio and television being what it is; covers much more of the small States. In Florida, you have to buy air time in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola (most over 140 miles apart TPA-MCO is 84 miles). There is no bleed-over in media. If you're in Delaware, what, Wilmington and Dover perhaps?

In a small state, it's practical. In a larger state...I'm not so sure there wasn't some influence to protect the incumbents. Maybe not.

Delaware has a closer relationship between its elected officials in the State Assembly and voters. But to get the airtime for much of Delaware, you have to buy time in mostly Philadelphia markets, which are amongst the most expensive in the nation.

The reason I mentioned Delaware is because of the chart posted by Stats. RI, NH, and MA have their primary on the same day late in August.

My point is that if your look at the table, generally speaking (there are some exceptions), the smaller states geographically seem to have their primaries later in the calendar year and the larger states seem to be clustered toward the earlier dates on the calendar or in the middle. The highlighted cells on the spreadsheet reflect this.

What stood out to me was that Florida is having theirs unusually late relative to the size of the state itself (22nd in size), the population (4th in population) and eighth in density. Aside from California and Texas, there are few states that have so many cities (20) over 100K in population. Whats more is that Florida's population centers cover twelve different counties. All that is from Wikipedia.

At the end of the day, it's much harder to put together a 2 month campaign in Florida than it is in the smaller states. And that compressed campaigning time cannot help but favor an incumbent with name recognition, resources, etc....