A Poll of 2016 Polling, F- for FOX and Major Media

Discussion in 'Media' started by JimBowie1958, Oct 10, 2019.

  1. Billy_Kinetta
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    Billy_Kinetta Paladin of the Lost Hour Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    FOX News, under new management, has joined the ranks of the MSM. They are no more trustworthy than any other.
     
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  2. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    That is not true at all. Gravis samples over 15000, but the rest go on the same sample size as state polls, and since that is a bigger share of the state population than the general national population, it should be MORE accurate.

    Clinton carried the national vote by 2.1%, the poll average was 3.3%, a greater than 50% margin in favor of Clinton.

    If you deduct California's tainted vote, that whole state is a Democrat political machine that can and has manufactured massive numbers of votes with their vote 'harvesters' bringing in ballots off the street, Trump won the popular vote
    Trump national votes:.........62,984,828
    Trump California votes:........4,483,810
    Trump vote outside CA.......58,501,018

    Clinton national vote:..........65,853,514
    Clinton California...................8,753,788
    Clinton outside CA...............57,099,726

    California's Mexican Cartel controlled political machine stuffed the ballot boxes in California by the millions with their 'vote harvesting' fraud and gave Clinton a 2 to 1 majority, which is horse crap. That was 6.5% OVER the RCP polling average of 22%. And the rest of the country shows that the polls were way over the top for Clinton by about 6% on average.


    Yeah, still off by millions.

    upload_2019-10-10_10-54-31.png

    IF you are looking for accuracy, yes it is as it is minus the California machines control, and shows the inaccuracy of the polls in detail.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
  3. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    If ti were not for their opinion shows in the evening, I wouldnt give FOX the time of day.

    In daytime I watch OAN.
     
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  4. Jitss617
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    Jitss617 Gold Member

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    David Shaw who (r) next to the poll ,, is no republican, he donated to Hillary Clinton..

    It’s all fake news
     
  5. sealybobo
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    sealybobo BANNED

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    Claudette can laugh but consider this

    How the Democrats Took Back Michigan
    A Democratic tsunami in the midterms engulfed the state Trump won most narrowly in 2016—and could keep the state blue in 2020.

    Trump had to win Michigan. And based on the 2018 midterms, he will not win Michigan in 2020. So he is going to lose this time.
     
  6. sealybobo
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    sealybobo BANNED

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    Lots of Republicans donated to Hillary. They thought she was going to win. I bet they didn't vote for her though.

    And I bet if they gave her $100,000 they gave Trump 3 times as much.

    Trump donated to Hillary's campaign when she ran against Barrack.
     
  7. Jitss617
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    Jitss617 Gold Member

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    Glad you agree the pollster voted for Hillary lol
     
  8. sealybobo
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    sealybobo BANNED

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    He probably didn't vote for Hillary. As I said, these rich republicans will give 3 dollars to the democrat and $7 to the Republican. That way no matter who wins, they have a friend in the white house.

    This Graph Shows Which Political Party Corporate America Loves the Most

    Look at Exxon. It gave 2.1 million. 36% of it went to Democrats and 63% went to Republicans because Republicans deny global warming.
     
  9. Jitss617
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    Jitss617 Gold Member

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    Cool
    Story thanks
     
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  10. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    That's not how the math works.

    Sampling is not based on a percentage for a large population. It's based on an absolute amount that is larger so that the expected variation around a mean declines. This can only happen with a sizeable sampling. Typically, national polls are around 1000 are accurate to a 3% error on a 95% confidence interval, i.e. they are accurate to within 3% 19 times out of 20. That also means 1 time out of 20, the polls will be outside of the error term, i.e. the difference between the actual and the polled results will be greater than 3%. The way to read a poll is that if one candidate is ahead by 2% with a 3% error, we would expect the actual result to be between a lead of 5% to being behind 1% with 95% confidence. In the RCP polling averages, Hillary was within in the margin of error on the national averages. If Hillary was ahead by 3.3%, we would expect the actual result would be a lead between 0.3% and 6.3%. In fact, it came in at 2.2%, which is within the national margin of error.

    State polls usually aren't sampling 1000 people. They are usually sampling around 400 to 500, which means the margin of error is wider, somewhere between 4% and 5%. And since state polls are less frequent, we are less confident in them. If there national polls coming out every day, we are more confident in them if they are saying similar things.

    People who are saying that polls aren't accurate simply don't understand the nature of polling and the math behind them. Polls try to predict the future, and nobody knows what will happen in the future with certainty. But they are usually pretty good at capturing what people are thinking at any given time.
     
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