A Poll of 2016 Polling, F- for FOX and Major Media

Discussion in 'Media' started by JimBowie1958, Oct 10, 2019.

  1. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    FOX has been notoriously inaccurate in polling, like most of the polls by major media sources.

    In this one most recently on Americans for/against impeachment, they once again over sample Democrat voters and get a predictable slim 51% majority favoring impeachment.

    upload_2019-10-10_9-48-36.png

    FOX also had Clinton winning Michigan by 4% in 2016, over sampling Dems by 5%,

    FOX had Clinton up by 4% in Florida but had an even sample in that poll,
    in Pennsylvania I don't see a FOX poll after April but the rest had on average Clinton up almost 3%.

    In Ohio, FOX doesn't keep that poll any more, but they had Trump up by 5%, he won by 8%.

    In Wisconsin FOX had Clinton up by 14%, but that was in March, the average had Hillary winning by more than 6%, and Trump won that state.
    Iowa polls on average showed Trump winning by 3%, but he won that state by 9.5%. FOX doesn't have polls available for that state on RealClearPolitics.

    In North Carolina, FOX had Trump up by 5%, the average had him barely ahead by less than a 1% margin, but Trump won by 3.6%. FOX poll no longer available.

    In Arizona, Virginia, and Nevada were all within a 3% margin.

    So, if we average the accuracy of these ten swing state polls, FOX had an accuracy of being skewed 4% in favor of Democrats and usually this is due to over sampling Democrats, while national polls were off, on average by about 6% in swing states. The Trafalgar Group had the most accurate polls in swing states that they did poll, all of them within a 3% margin of error compared to actual vote results.

    So when you read a FOX poll about trump, give him another 4% and if it is a major media poll, give him 5% and you are more likely to get something accurate.
     
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  2. kyzr
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    kyzr Gold Member

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    Whenever the "polls" say Trump is losing, please remember back in 2016, that the polls said that Trump had no way to win, Hillary had a 95% probability of winning!!

     
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  3. Oddball
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    Oddball Unobtanium Member Supporting Member

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    With the exception of Tucker and Gutfeld, Fox is unwatchable.
     
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  4. Stratford57
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    Stratford57 Diamond Member

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  5. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    I record three shows, Ingraham, Tucker and Hannity. I love Lou Dobbs, but he is so predictable after watching him for five years, I feel like I know what he is going to say. Hannity is predictable in how he reacts, but he usually brings plenty of guests with new information, like this one fellow last night that talked about how Nike basically runs the NBA.

    Ingraham has interesting guests on, but FOX is going liberal, like is fairly predictable as soon as Murdocks sons take over completely.

    Now I mostly watch One America News as they have a completely pro-Conservative slant to their reporting, but it balances the rest of the liberal pile of shyte being broadcast as 'news'.

    Shep 'Skeleton' Smith is just pure horse crap.
     
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  6. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    They are supposed to be in competition with each other, but instead they are all in cahoots.

    Where is the FEC?
     
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  7. sealybobo
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    sealybobo BANNED

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    That was a fluke. He won't be running against Hillary next time and I think a lot of people who didn't show up to vote in 2016 are sorry and they are going to show up and vote against Trump.

    Trump got all the votes he is ever going to get in 2016. He hasn't won over any new voters. He has only enraged everyone else.

    Oh, and he's a criminal. Who's going to re elect such a criminal?

    Two foreign-born associates of President Donald Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani are in law enforcement custody and have been indicted on federal campaign finance charges.

    Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, who helped Giuliani investigate allegations against Joe Biden and his son Hunter, are accused of illegally funding American political campaigns. The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the arrests, said that Parnas and Fruman had donated to Trump’s campaign as well as a pro-Trump super PAC.
     
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  8. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    State polls are less reliable than national polls because they are smaller, less frequent, and usually less reliable as the sampling methods aren't as good.

    Most of the national polls in 2016 were within the margin of error. In the RCP averages, the average polls were off by 1.2%, which is in within the margin of error.

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

    So if you're looking at national polls on impeachment, using state polls isn't a good analogy.
     
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  9. Oddball
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    Oddball Unobtanium Member Supporting Member

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    Jason Whitlock....Tucker had him on Tuesday...Hannity can't even get fresh guests.

    If I want the latest from Sara Carter, John Salomon, or Greg Jarrett, I can go to their websites and don't need to expose myself to Hannity's drearily stale and mind numbingly repetitive presentation.
     
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  10. Stratford57
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    Stratford57 Diamond Member

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    In other words, they all are in Soros' pocket.
     
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