A look inside the AGW cult

[Billy_Bob]

Both are lies and soooo typical of the denier cult lies that this whole deranged thread is built upon.

1st lie

Former Vice President Gore DID NOT SAY THAT!

That is a lie and a part of a fossil fuel industry propaganda meme.

What he actually said was this:

"Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The head U.S. Navy researcher he was referring to, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said this:

"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover."

So...the prediction was for an ice free summertime Arctic sometime between 2013 and 2019.....NOT "I predict the ice caps will melt by 2014"...

2nd lie

NASA has NEVER said that 2015 saw "More Ice Than Ever".

That is another lie and part of another deliberately concocted fraudulent denier cult myth about the actual state of the Arctic.

In the real world....

2015 in review
National Snow and Ice Data Center
January 5, 2016
(excerpts)
December ended with Arctic sea ice extent tracking between one and two standard deviations below average, as it did throughout the fall. This caps a year that saw the lowest sea ice maximum in February and the fourth lowest minimum in September. The first week of 2016 has seen very slow ice growth in the Arctic.

Sea ice extent for December 2015 averaged 12.3 million square kilometers (4.74 million square miles), the fourth lowest December extent in the satellite record. This is 780,000 square kilometers (301,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. The ice is currently tracking near two standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Sea ice extent is well below average in the Bering, Okhotsk, and Barents seas.

A broad area of Europe and western Russia, including the northern Barents Sea, saw temperatures as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 degrees to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average at the 925 hPa level. Conditions were also fairly warm over the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2015 was the fourth lowest in the satellite record. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for December extent is 3.4% per decade, or -44,200 square kilometers (-17,000 miles) per year.

The year 2015 will be remembered for two major events in Arctic sea ice extent: the lowest Arctic maximum in the satellite record, and the fourth lowest Arctic minimum in the satellite record. The record-low Arctic maximum occurred on February 25, 2015 and was among the earliest seasonal maxima in the 37-year satellite record. The fourth lowest Arctic minimum occurred on September 11, 2015 and was likely a consequence of very warm conditions in July and an increasingly young and thin ice cover.

The satellite passive microwave record for sea ice now spans more than 37 years. As we have documented, clear downward trends characterize Arctic sea ice extent and concentration in all months. During the Arctic maximum, declines in extent and concentration are pronounced in the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but ice cover has increased slightly in the Bering Sea. During the Arctic summer minimum, all areas show negative trends.

An exceptional weather event during the last days of the year brought a heat wave with surface air temperatures up to 23 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the far north, and a brief period when surface temperatures at the North Pole approached or perhaps even exceeded the freezing mark. A temperature of +0.7 degrees Celsius was briefly recorded by a buoy weather station near the North Pole on December 30, 2015. The event was linked to the combination of a very strong low pressure system near Iceland and a somewhat less intense low pressure system located near the North Pole. This was associated with an amplified trough at 500 hPa over the northern North Atlantic and a pronounced ridge of high pressure at 500 hPa to the east over central Europe, extending into the Kara Sea. This created a strong, deep inflow of warm, moist air into the Arctic Ocean’s high latitudes. The low near Iceland strengthened rapidly in the last days of December, reaching a minimum pressure of 935 millibars, equivalent to a hurricane.

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

To many Polar bear farts.... The populations have grown from just over 5,000 to over 55,000 in the last 20 years..

 

[RollingThunder]

Both are lies and soooo typical of the denier cult lies that this whole deranged thread is built upon.

1st lie

Former Vice President Gore DID NOT SAY THAT!

That is a lie and a part of a fossil fuel industry propaganda meme.

What he actually said was this:

"Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The head U.S. Navy researcher he was referring to, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said this:

"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover."

So...the prediction was for an ice free summertime Arctic sometime between 2013 and 2019.....NOT "I predict the ice caps will melt by 2014"...

2nd lie

NASA has NEVER said that 2015 saw "More Ice Than Ever".

That is another lie and part of another deliberately concocted fraudulent denier cult myth about the actual state of the Arctic.

In the real world....

2015 in review
National Snow and Ice Data Center
January 5, 2016
(excerpts)
December ended with Arctic sea ice extent tracking between one and two standard deviations below average, as it did throughout the fall. This caps a year that saw the lowest sea ice maximum in February and the fourth lowest minimum in September. The first week of 2016 has seen very slow ice growth in the Arctic.

Sea ice extent for December 2015 averaged 12.3 million square kilometers (4.74 million square miles), the fourth lowest December extent in the satellite record. This is 780,000 square kilometers (301,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. The ice is currently tracking near two standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Sea ice extent is well below average in the Bering, Okhotsk, and Barents seas.

A broad area of Europe and western Russia, including the northern Barents Sea, saw temperatures as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 degrees to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average at the 925 hPa level. Conditions were also fairly warm over the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2015 was the fourth lowest in the satellite record. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for December extent is 3.4% per decade, or -44,200 square kilometers (-17,000 miles) per year.

The year 2015 will be remembered for two major events in Arctic sea ice extent: the lowest Arctic maximum in the satellite record, and the fourth lowest Arctic minimum in the satellite record. The record-low Arctic maximum occurred on February 25, 2015 and was among the earliest seasonal maxima in the 37-year satellite record. The fourth lowest Arctic minimum occurred on September 11, 2015 and was likely a consequence of very warm conditions in July and an increasingly young and thin ice cover.

The satellite passive microwave record for sea ice now spans more than 37 years. As we have documented, clear downward trends characterize Arctic sea ice extent and concentration in all months. During the Arctic maximum, declines in extent and concentration are pronounced in the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but ice cover has increased slightly in the Bering Sea. During the Arctic summer minimum, all areas show negative trends.

An exceptional weather event during the last days of the year brought a heat wave with surface air temperatures up to 23 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the far north, and a brief period when surface temperatures at the North Pole approached or perhaps even exceeded the freezing mark. A temperature of +0.7 degrees Celsius was briefly recorded by a buoy weather station near the North Pole on December 30, 2015. The event was linked to the combination of a very strong low pressure system near Iceland and a somewhat less intense low pressure system located near the North Pole. This was associated with an amplified trough at 500 hPa over the northern North Atlantic and a pronounced ridge of high pressure at 500 hPa to the east over central Europe, extending into the Kara Sea. This created a strong, deep inflow of warm, moist air into the Arctic Ocean’s high latitudes. The low near Iceland strengthened rapidly in the last days of December, reaching a minimum pressure of 935 millibars, equivalent to a hurricane.

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

 

[9aces]

Both are lies and soooo typical of the denier cult lies that this whole deranged thread is built upon.

1st lie

Former Vice President Gore DID NOT SAY THAT!

That is a lie and a part of a fossil fuel industry propaganda meme.

What he actually said was this:

"Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The head U.S. Navy researcher he was referring to, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said this:

"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover."

So...the prediction was for an ice free summertime Arctic sometime between 2013 and 2019.....NOT "I predict the ice caps will melt by 2014"...

2nd lie

NASA has NEVER said that 2015 saw "More Ice Than Ever".

That is another lie and part of another deliberately concocted fraudulent denier cult myth about the actual state of the Arctic.

In the real world....

2015 in review
National Snow and Ice Data Center
January 5, 2016
(excerpts)
December ended with Arctic sea ice extent tracking between one and two standard deviations below average, as it did throughout the fall. This caps a year that saw the lowest sea ice maximum in February and the fourth lowest minimum in September. The first week of 2016 has seen very slow ice growth in the Arctic.

Sea ice extent for December 2015 averaged 12.3 million square kilometers (4.74 million square miles), the fourth lowest December extent in the satellite record. This is 780,000 square kilometers (301,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. The ice is currently tracking near two standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Sea ice extent is well below average in the Bering, Okhotsk, and Barents seas.

A broad area of Europe and western Russia, including the northern Barents Sea, saw temperatures as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 degrees to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average at the 925 hPa level. Conditions were also fairly warm over the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2015 was the fourth lowest in the satellite record. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for December extent is 3.4% per decade, or -44,200 square kilometers (-17,000 miles) per year.

The year 2015 will be remembered for two major events in Arctic sea ice extent: the lowest Arctic maximum in the satellite record, and the fourth lowest Arctic minimum in the satellite record. The record-low Arctic maximum occurred on February 25, 2015 and was among the earliest seasonal maxima in the 37-year satellite record. The fourth lowest Arctic minimum occurred on September 11, 2015 and was likely a consequence of very warm conditions in July and an increasingly young and thin ice cover.

The satellite passive microwave record for sea ice now spans more than 37 years. As we have documented, clear downward trends characterize Arctic sea ice extent and concentration in all months. During the Arctic maximum, declines in extent and concentration are pronounced in the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but ice cover has increased slightly in the Bering Sea. During the Arctic summer minimum, all areas show negative trends.

An exceptional weather event during the last days of the year brought a heat wave with surface air temperatures up to 23 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the far north, and a brief period when surface temperatures at the North Pole approached or perhaps even exceeded the freezing mark. A temperature of +0.7 degrees Celsius was briefly recorded by a buoy weather station near the North Pole on December 30, 2015. The event was linked to the combination of a very strong low pressure system near Iceland and a somewhat less intense low pressure system located near the North Pole. This was associated with an amplified trough at 500 hPa over the northern North Atlantic and a pronounced ridge of high pressure at 500 hPa to the east over central Europe, extending into the Kara Sea. This created a strong, deep inflow of warm, moist air into the Arctic Ocean’s high latitudes. The low near Iceland strengthened rapidly in the last days of December, reaching a minimum pressure of 935 millibars, equivalent to a hurricane.

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

Actually I'll probably fall dead of a heart attack that you actually got something right.

So is it 2013, which is past, 2019, or now you're saying 2030.....which is it?

 

[RollingThunder]

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

You Actually I'll probably fall dead of a heart attack that you actually got something right.

So is it 2013, which is past, 2019, or now you're saying 2030.....which is it?

You science denier are a hoot!

What did you imagine? That IF former VP Gore, who is not a scientist, happened to say that while some scientific predictions for the Arctic show an effectively ice free Arctic Ocean by 2030, a more recent study said the ice could disappear by 2016 plus or minus three years, and THEN there is still some ice there in, say, 2020, that MUST mean that all of the scientific conclusions about the reality of human caused global warming are thrown out the window?

That is the crackpot point of view of the deranged and very retarded OP of this thread.

Wait a few years and see what happens up at the North Pole. Odds are they'll be waterskiing through the Northwest Passage by then.

Many scientists now think that 2016 could very easily wind up even hotter than the record setting 2015, which just surpassed 2014 as the hottest year on record by a wide margin.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

You Actually I'll probably fall dead of a heart attack that you actually got something right.

So is it 2013, which is past, 2019, or now you're saying 2030.....which is it?

You science denier are a hoot!

What did you imagine? That IF former VP Gore, who is not a scientist, happened to say that while some scientific predictions for the Arctic show an effectively ice free Arctic Ocean by 2030, a more recent study said the ice could disappear by 2016 plus or minus three years, and THEN there is still some ice there in, say, 2020, that MUST mean that all of the scientific conclusions about the reality of human caused global warming are thrown out the window?

That is the crackpot point of view of the deranged and very retarded OP of this thread.

Wait a few years and see what happens up at the North Pole. Odds are they'll be waterskiing through the Northwest Passage by then.

Many scientists now think that 2016 could very easily wind up even hotter than the record setting 2015, which just surpassed 2014 as the hottest year on record by a wide margin.

Cult?

The deniers the cult?

Show us where anybody is caring about the north pole s0n? After 30 years of failed predictions on this shit!!


How about posting up a link that shows all of us "cultists" where the science is having any impact in the real world??



What you have is an internet hobby for OCD social oddballs ( yes, we all knew the science geeks growing up )!!


Nobody took them seriously then...........nobody takes them seriously now.

 

[skookerasbil]

Voter issues of concern for the 2016 election.............

Economy, Government Top Election Issues for Both Parties

Where is "climate change"??


ON THE BOTTOM OF THE LIST




Ummmm............who are the "cultists"??




[URL=http://s42.photobucket.com/user/baldaltima/media/gigantor11_2.gif.html][/URL]

 

[RollingThunder]

Cult? The deniers the cult?

Yup! As all the rational sane people can clearly see. And you are one of the most rabidly insane cultists around, Kookles.

The Cult Of Denial
The Daily Kos
By macguru
Saturday Feb 07, 2015

Credit “The Keystone Funnies”

As a society our biggest danger comes not from flood, drought, lightning or disease; it comes from us and our core beliefs.

We have in our society, especially in America as opposed to the rest of the civilized world, a very dangerous cadre of anti-social believers — The Cult of Deniers.

The Deniers fit the definition of a cult; it is led by charismatic leaders; it is well funded by a couple of billionaires with an ax to grind, and the all agree — almost in total lockstep — on issues that have become their identifying ideologies.

Leaders such as Texas Senator Ted “The Canadian” Cruz, the Mississippi Governor Jindal, the hog farming Senator Joni “Castrator” Ernst, radio host Rush Limbaugh are among the leaders of this cult. But also half a dozen Senators and a couple of dozen House of Representative members, TV personalities from Fox News and nearly every one of the 2016 Presidential hopefuls of one political party are among those that provide leadership for the Denier Cult into ever more and more bizarre philosophical territory.

Sometimes it seems almost like a sick game, each cult member trying to top the other with ridiculous statements so totally anti-social and anti-human as to seem to be satire in bad taste.

However, the true bosses behind the scenes are the Koch brothers of Texas and Kansas oil and national coal mines. The brothers felt a need for an opposing view of government to supplement an unsuccessful advertising campaign touting big coal and big oil as being pollution free. So they created out of the air, so to speak, the so-called grass roots organization, the “Tea Party.”

They funded bussing transportation of elders from elders communities and brought them together in a bunch. They then had speakers warm them up with scare tactics, handed out placards to carry and called the press to cover the “spontaneous” gathering.

And they carefully control the messages of the cult through the leaders whose campaigns they generously fund that are listed above.

The last identifier of the Deniers Cult is that they reject any explanation, logical, physical or scientific proof that their position on an issue is false.

The Deniers therefor fit the definition of a cult; it has leaders, a major source of nearly unending funding and a set of beliefs or ideologies not allowed to be challenged within the group, and a mission to change society to fit their ideologies.

They deny the President is a legal American citizen, even when his legal birth certificate is posted for all the world to see on the internet.

They deny vaccines work to protect children and society, using as their proof a disproven paper written by a discredited ex-doctor, (he was stripped of his right to practice by the AMA because of his faked data he used in that paper).

They deny that handguns have one purpose and one purpose only — to kill human beings — even in spite of gun deaths far exceeding even traffic accidents during the past year.

They deny “trickle-down economics,” disproven at its conception during the late 1970’s, is a cruel hoax designed simply to enrich the rich and rob the middle-class and the poor, even though simple grade-school mathematics prove it a form of a confidence crime known as the Ponzi scheme.

They deny that global warming is caused by the burning of fossil fuels because the oil and coal companies (who would lose money if real efforts were made to stop it) spend tens of millions of dollars each year advertising that their product does not cause the earth to warm. And they deny all effort by reputable scientists who are not being paid by the fossil fuel industry whom, 99 to 1, show proofs that the earth IS warming because of fossil fuels being burnt.

They deny women have an equal part in society, or even a right to contraception or the right to choose what happens between them, their own God and their doctor. Some rumors exist that they have a long term goal to eliminate the Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution that gave women the right to vote.

They deny racial hatred is alive and well in America, especially in both middle and Southern States, even with a major political party doing all it can to stir up even more racial hatred and openly supporting armed white supremacy movements, all in a cynical program to win votes from the bigoted.

They deny that a Federal law, The Affordable Care Act, is helping millions of Americans through the maze and institutional secrecy of the health industry by making a simple application form on the internet available to all Americans. And they deny the fact that health care costs have risen less than at any time since 1960.

And Deniers often accuse what they have labelled “Obama Care” of being “Socialist,” even though all profits go directly to private, for profit corporations and their investors who sell the health insurance products. And even though these very insurance companies wrote and pushed for the bill, in order to save the foundering, over-priced, ever-shrinking and under-serving industry.

They deny that Corporations are proven to be anti-social legal entities that tend nearly entirely to place profit above the good of society.

Deniers actively support privatizing of social issues like prisons, education, medicine, water, electricity and other social issues and problems even though the profit motive is diametrically opposed to effective social work or the betterment of citizen’s lives.

They deny that the world is over six or eight thousand years old even when carbon dating, (among many other proofs), a scientific method of accurately establishing great age, shows it over 4.5 billion years old.

And Deniers take pride in their ignorance of fact. They actively refute proofs of fact and belittle fact over belief. Deniers even belittle human intelligence or learning, as if one who uses the brain provided from birth is somehow unpatriotic, or elitist. They actively celebrate those people whose ignorant public statements make the normal folk cringe in shame for the uneducated comments.

And the list goes on and on. Practically anything that benefits humans over investors is denied. Anything that allows for inclusion of all races and nationalities is denied. Anything that benefits society over business is denied. Anyone who proposes helping American people directly is denied. Even programs helping Veterans of our wars is denied, over and over again.

The danger of the deniers is so immediately evident and endemic that it must be attacked head on.

Deniers only fester in society because we allow them to exist.

Anyone denying obvious facts must be confronted, immediately and loudly in all ways possible. It is our duty as Americans to do so.

Corporations fostering denial for reasons of profit need be confronted, teased, commented about in social forums and degraded in popularity, even to the point of boycotting their products.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Become a vegitarian they tell us.....................
How cattle hurt the climate
Even aside from their impact on grasslands, cattle are terrible for the climate.
Cows emit methane — a greenhouse gas that is 86 times more damaging than carbon over 20 years — when they burp, fart, or poop. As CNN recently noted, “14.5% of all greenhouse gas pollution can be attributed to livestock, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the most reputable authority on this topic. And a huge hunk of the livestock industry’s role — 65% — comes from raising beef and dairy cattle.” A pound of beef has about the same carbon footprint as driving an average American car 70 miles.
This is far worse than most foods. The Environmental Working Group found that beef has the second highest carbon footprint of any common food after lamb. Pound for pound, it is twice as bad for the climate as cheese and pork, four times worse than chicken, and more than 14 times worse than broccoli.
And that’s not even considering the other unsustainable aspects of beef, such as using land and water much less efficiently than plants or chickens to produce food. There’s just no reason for our government to actively promote cattle raising and beef.
Cattle grazing is a climate disaster, and you’re paying for it

So what?

You become a rabbit and eat carrots bitch, I am going to eat a big fat juicy steak


.

 

[IanC]

Both are lies and soooo typical of the denier cult lies that this whole deranged thread is built upon.

1st lie

Former Vice President Gore DID NOT SAY THAT!

That is a lie and a part of a fossil fuel industry propaganda meme.

What he actually said was this:

"Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The head U.S. Navy researcher he was referring to, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, said this:

"Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover."

So...the prediction was for an ice free summertime Arctic sometime between 2013 and 2019.....NOT "I predict the ice caps will melt by 2014"...

2nd lie

NASA has NEVER said that 2015 saw "More Ice Than Ever".

That is another lie and part of another deliberately concocted fraudulent denier cult myth about the actual state of the Arctic.

In the real world....

2015 in review
National Snow and Ice Data Center
January 5, 2016
(excerpts)
December ended with Arctic sea ice extent tracking between one and two standard deviations below average, as it did throughout the fall. This caps a year that saw the lowest sea ice maximum in February and the fourth lowest minimum in September. The first week of 2016 has seen very slow ice growth in the Arctic.

Sea ice extent for December 2015 averaged 12.3 million square kilometers (4.74 million square miles), the fourth lowest December extent in the satellite record. This is 780,000 square kilometers (301,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. The ice is currently tracking near two standard deviations below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Sea ice extent is well below average in the Bering, Okhotsk, and Barents seas.

A broad area of Europe and western Russia, including the northern Barents Sea, saw temperatures as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 degrees to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average at the 925 hPa level. Conditions were also fairly warm over the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged for December 2015 was the fourth lowest in the satellite record. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for December extent is 3.4% per decade, or -44,200 square kilometers (-17,000 miles) per year.

The year 2015 will be remembered for two major events in Arctic sea ice extent: the lowest Arctic maximum in the satellite record, and the fourth lowest Arctic minimum in the satellite record. The record-low Arctic maximum occurred on February 25, 2015 and was among the earliest seasonal maxima in the 37-year satellite record. The fourth lowest Arctic minimum occurred on September 11, 2015 and was likely a consequence of very warm conditions in July and an increasingly young and thin ice cover.

The satellite passive microwave record for sea ice now spans more than 37 years. As we have documented, clear downward trends characterize Arctic sea ice extent and concentration in all months. During the Arctic maximum, declines in extent and concentration are pronounced in the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk, but ice cover has increased slightly in the Bering Sea. During the Arctic summer minimum, all areas show negative trends.

An exceptional weather event during the last days of the year brought a heat wave with surface air temperatures up to 23 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the far north, and a brief period when surface temperatures at the North Pole approached or perhaps even exceeded the freezing mark. A temperature of +0.7 degrees Celsius was briefly recorded by a buoy weather station near the North Pole on December 30, 2015. The event was linked to the combination of a very strong low pressure system near Iceland and a somewhat less intense low pressure system located near the North Pole. This was associated with an amplified trough at 500 hPa over the northern North Atlantic and a pronounced ridge of high pressure at 500 hPa to the east over central Europe, extending into the Kara Sea. This created a strong, deep inflow of warm, moist air into the Arctic Ocean’s high latitudes. The low near Iceland strengthened rapidly in the last days of December, reaching a minimum pressure of 935 millibars, equivalent to a hurricane.

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

I'm not quite sure how you got off my ignore list. But I'm pretty sure it won't take too many of your stupid oversized font tirades to bring me back to my senses.

here are a few of the graphical propheses of Doom for the Arctic that were so prevalent just a couple of years ago.

and my personal favourite...

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

or the even less alarming global sea ice extent.

what is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine? the reality is that it has made the warmers look foolish to thinking persons because of all the wrong predictions. the misdirections of the first two graphs don't go unnoticed by the layman who originally freaked out only to find out it was just yet another false alarm.

 

[RollingThunder]

Hey -- this is a first.. You're 50% correct.. Al Gore SAID whatever Al Gore said.. Whether he embellished or lied about the NPGrad Prof is really immaterial.. BUT -- when he said "... in as little as 7 years" --- that was well within the range given in the FINAL paper. There is no telling what the Prof might have told him in private before the paper was published.. In any case -- this prediction is very likely to go into the overstuffed "Fail" bin. And even IF the Arctic sea Ice did disappear for a couple weeks in one or two summers --- the time to regenerate that relatively thin ice cover is less than a decade or two..

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

What is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine?

Your usual demented denier cult drivel.

In the real world...

The Cold, Hard Facts
The Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters
Arctic sea ice has been melting at break-neck speeds in the past few decades, driven by warming air temperature, warming ocean water temperature, and new, extreme weather patterns, all of which are caused by or accelerated by man-made climate change. Unfortunately, melting sea ice is a slippery slope - once it starts, it's hard to reverse, and even under normal climate conditions would take centuries to reestablish. The lack of bright white ice on the dark ocean surface is leading to a temperature increase that likely extends beyond the borders of the Arctic, and a breakdown of the polar vortex, which is so critical in maintaining a cold, ice-conducive atmosphere at the pole. Models suggest sea ice will disappear by 2100, but most Arctic sea ice experts are calling for an summertime ice-free Arctic by 2030.

 

[jc456]

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

What is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine?

Your usual demented denier cult drivel.

In the real world...

The Cold, Hard Facts
The Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters
Arctic sea ice has been melting at break-neck speeds in the past few decades, driven by warming air temperature, warming ocean water temperature, and new, extreme weather patterns, all of which are caused by or accelerated by man-made climate change. Unfortunately, melting sea ice is a slippery slope - once it starts, it's hard to reverse, and even under normal climate conditions would take centuries to reestablish. The lack of bright white ice on the dark ocean surface is leading to a temperature increase that likely extends beyond the borders of the Arctic, and a breakdown of the polar vortex, which is so critical in maintaining a cold, ice-conducive atmosphere at the pole. Models suggest sea ice will disappear by 2100, but most Arctic sea ice experts are calling for an summertime ice-free Arctic by 2030.

isn't that soot on the ice? And why the ice isn't shiny? I mean, please post up factual information, please.

 

[flacaltenn]

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

What is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine?

Your usual demented denier cult drivel.

In the real world...

The Cold, Hard Facts
The Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters
Arctic sea ice has been melting at break-neck speeds in the past few decades, driven by warming air temperature, warming ocean water temperature, and new, extreme weather patterns, all of which are caused by or accelerated by man-made climate change. Unfortunately, melting sea ice is a slippery slope - once it starts, it's hard to reverse, and even under normal climate conditions would take centuries to reestablish. The lack of bright white ice on the dark ocean surface is leading to a temperature increase that likely extends beyond the borders of the Arctic, and a breakdown of the polar vortex, which is so critical in maintaining a cold, ice-conducive atmosphere at the pole. Models suggest sea ice will disappear by 2100, but most Arctic sea ice experts are calling for an summertime ice-free Arctic by 2030.

Quick question there TinkerBelle --- does the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes prohibit sometimes MASSIVE ice regeneration in just one winter?? No skepshipscience peeking !!!!!!!! Just your raw intellect.. Cough -- Cough..

 

[IanC]

More of Fecalhead's lies.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

He was being quite accurate about those predictions. The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

***

The Arctic Sea ice is in a death spiral, losing both extent and volume in a long downward trend. It is very unlikely to ever "regenerate" in our lifetimes, let alone "in one or two summers", as you moronically claim. It melts the fastest in the summers, imbecile.



The sharp drop in Arctic sea ice area has been matched by a harder-to-see, but equally sharp, drop in sea ice thickness. The combined result has been a collapse in total sea ice volume - to one fifth of its level in 1980.


Arctic sea ice volume in 1000s of cubic kilometers (via Robinson)

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

What is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine?

Your usual demented denier cult drivel.

In the real world...

The Cold, Hard Facts
The Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters
Arctic sea ice has been melting at break-neck speeds in the past few decades, driven by warming air temperature, warming ocean water temperature, and new, extreme weather patterns, all of which are caused by or accelerated by man-made climate change. Unfortunately, melting sea ice is a slippery slope - once it starts, it's hard to reverse, and even under normal climate conditions would take centuries to reestablish. The lack of bright white ice on the dark ocean surface is leading to a temperature increase that likely extends beyond the borders of the Arctic, and a breakdown of the polar vortex, which is so critical in maintaining a cold, ice-conducive atmosphere at the pole. Models suggest sea ice will disappear by 2100, but most Arctic sea ice experts are calling for an summertime ice-free Arctic by 2030.

my usual demented denier cult drivel???

be specific. are you denying the first of my graphs was not heavily publicized? the second graph is from neven, and was run on quite a few warmist blog sites but I won't fault anyone if they havent seen it. both were produced and publicized to give the impression that Arctic sea ice was on its way out in the very near future. I am too charitable to call THAT 'warmist cult drivel'.

my next two graphs are simply graphs of Arctic and global sea ice data. are you saying that they are fraudulent in some way? do you consider it a trick to actually present all the data? are you sooooo retarded and enthralled with climate alarmism that you now consider full data in context to be drivel, compared to carefully truncated data with unrealistic projections that are pure gold in your eyes?


you didnt answer my question. what special significance does Arctic ice have?

 

[9aces]

I don't need bigger font to see what Gore actually said. That it is not in dispute. He EMBELLISHED the truth a bit. He slanted the facts to his advantage.. And HE STILL was wrong. That's all reasonable people have to know. Doesn't matter what the ACTUAL science said.. He's not trusted to deliver science to the public for a reason.. HE LIES A LOT.. Eventually -- you might understand that completely rational analysis of what he said.

You don't need a bigger font, you need a brain, fecalhead.

Gore wasn't wrong. He talked about a range of predictions as to when the Arctic region would be effectively ice free in the late summers.

Gore said this:
"the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years."

The actual prediction by the Navy scientists was that effectively sea ice free Arctic summers 'could happen in as little as 7 years' or as long as 13 years, which would be 2019 - "it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer."

So....former VP Gore did not predict that the Arctic would be ice free in 2013. He cited SEVERAL scientific predictions, ranging from 22 years until ice free conditions, to a newer study that suggested that the Arctic COULD be ice free sometime between 2013 and 2019.

All of this controversy over these statements by Gore is, of course, completely meaningless. Gore is a messenger bringing information about the climate change crisis to the public. He is not himself a scientist. He generally gets things right and presents the info accurately.....but if he did sometime say something that turned out to be not completely accurate, SO WHAT? His mistakes, if any, would have absolutely no impact on the reality of the situation the world is facing, or on either the massive amounts of scientific evidence and data or the virtually unanimous testimony of the world's climate scientists or the again almost unanimous concurrence of the rest of the world scientific community, affirming the reality and dangers of human caused global warming.

Attacking Gore as if he was climate science is just another propaganda device used by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the clueless rightwingnuts who have been bamboozled into believing that this issue is political rather than scientific.

In the real world reflected by science...

Arctic Sea Ice Plunges to Record Low Extent for Late Winter
WeatherUnderground
By: Bob Henson
March 09, 2015
(excerpts)
Instead of easing toward its typical March maximum in coverage, the Arctic’s sea ice appears to be more inclined toward getting a head start on its yearly summer melt-out. As of Sunday, March 8, Arctic sea ice as calculated by Japan’s National Institute of Polar Research extended across 13.65 million square kilometers (Figure 1, red line). This value is more than 450,000 sq km--roughly the size of California--below the record extent for the date.

Experts differ strongly on when we might see a summer that melts nearly all of the Arctic’s ice (typically defined as less than a million sq km of extent by the normal September minimum). Computer models suggest this point might not be reached till the 2040s or later, while simple extrapolation from recent years would produce an effectively ice-free September by the 2020s, perhaps even sooner.

So when the Arctic isn't ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what's going to be your reason why?

Your cultic assumptions are ludicrous. And hilarious.

The Arctic Ice Cap has already lost an enormous amount of ice mass (extent and thickness) compared to what it had just 60 years ago. It lost a huge amount compared to what was there in 2007, and then lost even more in 2012.

The Northwest Passage in the late summer currently still has some ice chunks and thin rotten ice cover on it, but it has indeed been navigated by ships without the aid of Icebreakers in some recent years. This Passage has never before been open in human history.

According to many Arctic scientists and observers, the current trends in ice extent and thickness will almost inevitably lead to late summertime on the Arctic Ocean being effectively ice-free within just a few years, opening Arctic trade routes to shipping......even though the climate models are more conservative and predict that ice free conditions won't happen until about 2030.

'..So when the Arctic IS ice free in 2019, 2020, etc, what are you going to do, have a mental breakdown?..' ....or perhaps you'll find some other absurd, ideologically motivated way to deny the obvious reality of human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes?

hahahahahaha. a totally ice free arctic even in winter by 2031 !!!!!! what a bunch of dolts!

what's the reality? the usual ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice through the seasons, with some overall decrease since the recent high point at the start of the satellite era.

What is the significance of Arctic sea ice anyways? is it supposed to be a proxy for global temps? or a canary in the coal mine?

Your usual demented denier cult drivel.

In the real world...

The Cold, Hard Facts
The Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters
Arctic sea ice has been melting at break-neck speeds in the past few decades, driven by warming air temperature, warming ocean water temperature, and new, extreme weather patterns, all of which are caused by or accelerated by man-made climate change. Unfortunately, melting sea ice is a slippery slope - once it starts, it's hard to reverse, and even under normal climate conditions would take centuries to reestablish. The lack of bright white ice on the dark ocean surface is leading to a temperature increase that likely extends beyond the borders of the Arctic, and a breakdown of the polar vortex, which is so critical in maintaining a cold, ice-conducive atmosphere at the pole. Models suggest sea ice will disappear by 2100, but most Arctic sea ice experts are calling for an summertime ice-free Arctic by 2030.

my usual demented denier cult drivel???

be specific. are you denying the first of my graphs was not heavily publicized? the second graph is from neven, and was run on quite a few warmist blog sites but I won't fault anyone if they havent seen it. both were produced and publicized to give the impression that Arctic sea ice was on its way out in the very near future. I am too charitable to call THAT 'warmist cult drivel'.

my next two graphs are simply graphs of Arctic and global sea ice data. are you saying that they are fraudulent in some way? do you consider it a trick to actually present all the data? are you sooooo retarded and enthralled with climate alarmism that you now consider full data in context to be drivel, compared to carefully truncated data with unrealistic projections that are pure gold in your eyes?


you didnt answer my question. what special significance does Arctic ice have?

Using all the data is being unfair you know.

 

[Crick]

The Arctic ice makes up a substantial portion of the Earth's albedo. Or are you going to call that drivel? Will we hear the argument that the low angle makes it almost impossible for the Arctic to absorb solar energy? If so, then perhaps you can explain whence comes the energy that drives the seasonal melt.

Polar Science Center » PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis
Perspective: Ice Loss and Energy

It takes energy to melt sea ice. How much energy? The energy required to melt the 16,400 Km3 of ice that are lost every year (1979-2010 average) from April to September as part of the natural annual cycle is about 5 x 10^21 Joules. For comparison, the U.S. Energy consumption for 2009 (www.eia.gov/totalenergy) was about 1 x 10^20 J. So it takes about the 50 times the annual U.S. energy consumption to melt this much ice every year. This energy comes from the change in the distribution of solar radiation as the earth rotates around the sun.
To melt the additional 280 km3 of sea ice, the amount we have have been losing on an annual basis based on PIOMAS calculations, it takes roughly 8.6 x 10^19 J or 86% of U.S. energy consumption.
However, when spread over the area covered by Arctic sea ice, the additional energy required to melt this much sea ice is actually quite small. It corresponds to about 0.4 Wm-2 . That’s like leaving a very small and dim flashlight bulb continuously burning on every square meter of ice. Tracking down such a small difference in energy is very difficult, and underscores why we need to look at longer time series and consider the uncertainties in our measurements and calculations.

 

[IanC]

If albedo is as important as you say then why isn't there an uproar when Antarctic sea ice is increased? The ice there is MORE important because it is at a latitude that receives more solar input.

Where are the studies showing global albedo is decreasing?

Where are the studies that compare extra heat loss from open ocean to ocean insulated by ice. What is the NET difference in low ice years compared to high ice years?

So many of these press releases tend to accentuate one side of the equation while ignoring the other. Science is supposed to look at all sides.

Where are the studies on how low energy, diffuse back radiation is able to support a spiralling temperature increase that needs more energy at the rate of kT^4, about 5W/m2 per degreeC? And all of the back radiation doesn't go into just increasing temp but into other pathways as well.

 

[jc456]

The Arctic ice makes up a substantial portion of the Earth's albedo. Or are you going to call that drivel? Will we hear the argument that the low angle makes it almost impossible for the Arctic to absorb solar energy? If so, then perhaps you can explain whence comes the energy that drives the seasonal melt.

Polar Science Center » PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis
Perspective: Ice Loss and Energy

It takes energy to melt sea ice. How much energy? The energy required to melt the 16,400 Km3 of ice that are lost every year (1979-2010 average) from April to September as part of the natural annual cycle is about 5 x 10^21 Joules. For comparison, the U.S. Energy consumption for 2009 (www.eia.gov/totalenergy) was about 1 x 10^20 J. So it takes about the 50 times the annual U.S. energy consumption to melt this much ice every year. This energy comes from the change in the distribution of solar radiation as the earth rotates around the sun.
To melt the additional 280 km3 of sea ice, the amount we have have been losing on an annual basis based on PIOMAS calculations, it takes roughly 8.6 x 10^19 J or 86% of U.S. energy consumption.
However, when spread over the area covered by Arctic sea ice, the additional energy required to melt this much sea ice is actually quite small. It corresponds to about 0.4 Wm-2 . That’s like leaving a very small and dim flashlight bulb continuously burning on every square meter of ice. Tracking down such a small difference in energy is very difficult, and underscores why we need to look at longer time series and consider the uncertainties in our measurements and calculations.

so Crick, an honest question...Has the Arctic been ice free in the past? simple question, can you give a simple yes or no answer?

there is a reason I'm asking, but I'll wait for your response before going further with the discussion.