A 370-Year History of Tropical Cyclones in the Lesser Antilles

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A 370-Year History of Tropical Cyclones in the Lesser Antilles
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Reference
Chenoweth, M. and Divine, D. 2012. Tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles: descriptive statistics and historical variability in cyclone energy, 1638-2009. Climatic Change 113: 583-598.
Background
The authors say that in an earlier paper (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) they "presented a 318-year record of tropical cyclone activity in the Lesser Antilles and determined that there has been no statistically significant change in the frequency of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) as well as tropical depressions over the entire length of the record." And they note that "the location of the Lesser Antilles partly within the 'Main Development Region' for Atlantic tropical cyclone formation makes this record our best source for historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries."

What was done
In their current paper, the two researchers examined the records employed in their earlier paper in somewhat more detail, determining "the maximum estimated wind speed for each tropical cyclone for each hurricane season to produce a seasonal value of the total cyclone energy of each storm along various transects that pass through the 61.5°W meridian." And somewhat analogous to accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), they calculated Lesser Antilles Cyclone Energy (LACE) along a fixed spatial domain (10-25°N, 61.5°W) at any time a tropical cyclone passed through it, after which they performed spectral and wavelet analysis on the LACE time series and tested it for statistical significance of trends.

What was learned
Chenoweth and Divine report that their record of tropical cyclone activity "reveals no trends in LACE in the best-sampled regions for the past 320 years," and that "even in the incompletely sampled region north of the Lesser Antilles there is no trend in either numbers or LACE," noting that these results are similar to those reported earlier by them (Chenoweth and Divine, 2008) on tropical cyclone counts. In addition, they indicate that LACE along the 61.5°W meridian is "highly correlated" with Atlantic-Basin-wide ACE.

What it means
In striking contrast to the claims of many climate alarmists that global warming will lead to both more frequent and more furious tropical cyclone activity, the work of Chenoweth and Divine would seem to suggest otherwise, especially in light of the fact that climate alarmists typically contend that 20th-century global warming was unprecedented over the past millennium or two.

CO2 Science
 
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Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form in the Atlantic...
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Tropical storm chance increases in Atlantic
July 4, 2017 -- The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said there was a 70 percent chance of a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic Ocean in the next two days.
The agency was monitoring a storm system called Invest 94L about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm hasn't changed much in recent hours, but environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form in the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical-storm-chance-increases-in-Atlantic.jpg

Invest 94L, at bottom right, is about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.​

There's a 70 percent chance a depression will form in two days, 80 percent chance in five days. The storm is traveling westward or west-northwestward at 10 mph to 15 mph toward the U.S. Southeast coast.

If Invest 94L becomes a tropical storm, it will be the fourth named Atlantic storm of the season -- Don. Tropical Storm Cindy caused flooding along the Gulf Coast shores of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida in late June.

Tropical storm chance increases in Atlantic
 
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I still believe that we don't have nearly enough data with only about 60 years of satellite data to go by...The error even in the 70's was at least 2-3 storms missed.

Before the satellite age that was likely much higher.
 

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