Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
So, Labor Day has come and gone.
23 candidates have announced. One has already dropped out. Another one, may, just may, join the Democratic race.
The first in the nation caucus, In Iowa, will be held on Monday, February 1, 2016, 134 days from now.
The first in the nation primary, in New Hampshire, will be held on Tuesday, February 9, 2016, 141 days from now.
The serious preparation phase for the Primary cycle begins now, which means $$$$, advertisting, trail-stumping and the like. Surely, many, many, many hotels in Iowa and New Hampshire are already getting booked up for events like candidate tours through key counties. This is also a $$$-maker for Iowa and New Hampshire, and both of those states know it, too.
Considering the combative nature of the Republican cast of candidates and the fact that Donald Trump has repeatedly broken Ronald Reagan's famous 11th commandment (Thou shalt not criticize nor eat a fellow Republican), I am watching and waiting to see when the gloves come off and the mud will really fly. It's a great spectator sport.
But where does "Strategema" come into all of this? Well, follow the money. The longer, harder, more mud-slingy the primaries are, the more tapped-out donors will be for the General Election in the Fall. This is why the party that knows earlier who their nominee is going to be gets to breathe more of a sigh of relief.
The RNC changed a number of primary rules to make the 2016 season less combative and more likely to produce an earlier winner. This is why the RNC rules say that primaries/caucuses that are proportional and NOT winner-take-all may take place before March 15th, but as of March 15th, the WTA contests may begin. This doesn't mean that all the proportional contests must be done by March 15th. Don't get me wrong. They are spread throughout the entire (somewhat shortened) primary season. But the WTA contests have a "Verbot" before March 15th. The idea was to allow candidates who may not win certain contests at least some delegates to see if they are viable for the larger round with very big states like FL, OH, and MO (all of which are having their contests on March 15th), which are WTA. Theoretically, one candidate could already pull a pretty heavy knockout blow on March 15th and by the end of March, it will be over with. Or, it can end up being a real dogfight among the top four. California has a late primary this year and sends more delegates to the Convention than any other state. It is also Carly Fiorina's home state.
So, anything can happen. But I really like this phase in the game, before the first votes are actually counted, because now (exluding Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks) really is the "boots-on-the-ground" phase.
So, using strategema to win as many delegates as quickly as possible, therefore shutting out other candidates, really is the name of the game. At this stage in the game in September 2011, Perry was collapsing, Cain was rising. Then Cain collapsed and Gingrich rose. Then Gingrich collapsed and Santorum rose somewhat. But Romney, when he was not no. 1, was always no. 2, not no. 5, like Bush is now. So, I submit to you that 2016 is going to be a very different, very unpredictable game compared to 2012.
Grab your pocorn.
Now, I gave my views about the Republican side. Others can feel just completely free to give their views about the Democratic side...
23 candidates have announced. One has already dropped out. Another one, may, just may, join the Democratic race.
The first in the nation caucus, In Iowa, will be held on Monday, February 1, 2016, 134 days from now.
The first in the nation primary, in New Hampshire, will be held on Tuesday, February 9, 2016, 141 days from now.
The serious preparation phase for the Primary cycle begins now, which means $$$$, advertisting, trail-stumping and the like. Surely, many, many, many hotels in Iowa and New Hampshire are already getting booked up for events like candidate tours through key counties. This is also a $$$-maker for Iowa and New Hampshire, and both of those states know it, too.
Considering the combative nature of the Republican cast of candidates and the fact that Donald Trump has repeatedly broken Ronald Reagan's famous 11th commandment (Thou shalt not criticize nor eat a fellow Republican), I am watching and waiting to see when the gloves come off and the mud will really fly. It's a great spectator sport.
But where does "Strategema" come into all of this? Well, follow the money. The longer, harder, more mud-slingy the primaries are, the more tapped-out donors will be for the General Election in the Fall. This is why the party that knows earlier who their nominee is going to be gets to breathe more of a sigh of relief.
The RNC changed a number of primary rules to make the 2016 season less combative and more likely to produce an earlier winner. This is why the RNC rules say that primaries/caucuses that are proportional and NOT winner-take-all may take place before March 15th, but as of March 15th, the WTA contests may begin. This doesn't mean that all the proportional contests must be done by March 15th. Don't get me wrong. They are spread throughout the entire (somewhat shortened) primary season. But the WTA contests have a "Verbot" before March 15th. The idea was to allow candidates who may not win certain contests at least some delegates to see if they are viable for the larger round with very big states like FL, OH, and MO (all of which are having their contests on March 15th), which are WTA. Theoretically, one candidate could already pull a pretty heavy knockout blow on March 15th and by the end of March, it will be over with. Or, it can end up being a real dogfight among the top four. California has a late primary this year and sends more delegates to the Convention than any other state. It is also Carly Fiorina's home state.
So, anything can happen. But I really like this phase in the game, before the first votes are actually counted, because now (exluding Thanksgiving and Christmas breaks) really is the "boots-on-the-ground" phase.
So, using strategema to win as many delegates as quickly as possible, therefore shutting out other candidates, really is the name of the game. At this stage in the game in September 2011, Perry was collapsing, Cain was rising. Then Cain collapsed and Gingrich rose. Then Gingrich collapsed and Santorum rose somewhat. But Romney, when he was not no. 1, was always no. 2, not no. 5, like Bush is now. So, I submit to you that 2016 is going to be a very different, very unpredictable game compared to 2012.
Grab your pocorn.
Now, I gave my views about the Republican side. Others can feel just completely free to give their views about the Democratic side...
