2014 US Senate predictions

[Hoosier4Liberty]

I think it's important to note that the individual races have recently been trending in the GOP direction.

 

[william the wie]

I think it's important to note that the individual races have recently been trending in the GOP direction.

True. However until the ACA spin breaks it will not be obvious in the polling data. More importantly at least one critical date, Sept 30, which will cover the cost data for April 1 to June 30th for those who signed up Jan. 1 to March 31 is only a bit over a month before the election. The primaries will be over long before then and in many cases suddenly vulnerable Ds will have no or underfunded opposition and that could lead to an official GOP split.

 

[JWBooth]

Aipac, Raytheon, FLIR, General Dynamics, Bath Iron Works, AM General, General Electric, McDonnell Douglass, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, KBR, Raytheon....

 

[ScienceRocks]

51(+independents)/49. Democrats holding the senate thank god.

 

[JWBooth]

...US Chamber of Commerce, AMA, National Assn. of Realtors, American Hospital Association, AARP, Exxon Mobil, Verizon, Monsanto, Con Agra, AT&T, ...

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

...US Chamber of Commerce, AMA, National Assn. of Realtors, American Hospital Association, AARP, Exxon Mobil, Verizon, Monsanto, Con Agra, AT&T, ...

A whole lot better than George Soros, the SEIU, teacher's unions, moveon.org, and Hollywood.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Americans are so resigned to the conduct of the status quo, that I think they will vote the same way they normally do out of apathy. The House and Senate will remain roughly the same as now, with perhaps one or two wild cards coming in from parties out side the main two, meaning Libertarian or Independents.

Pretty much exactly what I was going to say.
No one can really predict what voters will do based on historical data. (Example using previous models when a sitting President is below 50% approval rating - the opposing party will gain 25-30 seats)
All one has to do is look at the last election. Congress was less than 20% approval rating yet there was virtually no one voted out of office. All of the same people were re-elected.
Even after the unparalleled disaster that Obamacare has become - and only starting - I am not at all convinced that Democrats will change their vote. Therefore, no matter how bad Obama's popularity gets - it will have marginal effects on the next election.

 

[JWBooth]

...US Chamber of Commerce, AMA, National Assn. of Realtors, American Hospital Association, AARP, Exxon Mobil, Verizon, Monsanto, Con Agra, AT&T, ...

A whole lot better than George Soros, the SEIU, teacher's unions, moveon.org, and Hollywood.

Bought and paid for is bought and paid for. and the lobby interests I listed, I looked them up, they are the biggest bidders when buying legislators.

 

[RandomVariable]

The news on the ACA from insurance company quarterly reports will not hit until June 30 for those who signed up last year and Sept. 30 for those signing up this year. The analysis of that data will decide the size of the mid-term results.

That could me most of it. Other factors in play are immigration reform, next week the House and Senate come back into Session and testimony from the CBO about the Minimum Wage Report will kick out some sound bites, unemployment benefits is not going to go away just yet.

From the way I read it, except for the unknown of the ACA data, every one of these are popular with the American publican and opposed by the Republican party. There are no hot button topics the Republicans can pull up, not even in the Republican controlled house. The McConnell/Cruz tension is hardly behind closed doors and is pretty much a zero sum game between the two. A win for either one of them is probably not a net gain for the party and a stalemate between them is even worse. How's that for a no win situation.

 

[BreezeWood]

2014 will hinge on McConnell, why vote Republican and vote against the R Senate leader at the same time - one or the other will prevail and prove to be the national trend.

there is a real chance the D's can gain in both the Senate and House.

 

[RandomVariable]

2014 will hinge on McConnell, why vote Republican and vote against the R Senate leader at the same time - one or the other will prevail and prove to be the national trend.

there is a real chance the D's can gain in both the Senate and House.

 

[RandomVariable]

This from yesterday's news:

Sen. Pat Roberts’ (R-Kan.) net approval rating has dropped 12 points in the last year, and he could face an increasingly competitive primary race for reelection, a new poll suggests.

Thirty-eight percent of Kansans disapprove of Roberts while 29 percent approve, according to an automated poll released Friday by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling (PPP).

Tea Party-backed candidate Milton Wolf (R) has already announced his campaign to challenge Roberts in November.

The PPP poll indicates Roberts has a 49 percent to 23 percent lead over Wolf for the primary, but the pollsters say the lack of name recognition for Wolf could explain the wide margin.

ADVERTISEMENT
For a generic “more conservative” opponent in the primary, Roberts would only lead that person 43 percent to 39 percent.

Although Roberts could be at risk of losing his seat to another Republican, the poll suggests it’s unlikely for a Democrat to defeat him.

In a hypothetical match-up with county district attorney Chad Taylor (D), Roberts has a 48 percent to 32 percent lead.

If Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius challenged Roberts, she’d likely lose, according to the poll. Roberts would have a 52 percent to 38 percent lead over her.

Only 38 percent of voters in Kansas, the poll indicates, have a favorable opinion of Sebelius. More than half have an unfavorable view.

Sebelius served as the state’s governor from 2003 until 2009. Roberts has served in the U.S. Senate since 1997.

The automated poll surveyed 693 Kansas voters from Feb. 18-20 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. A sub-sample of 375 GOP primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.

Read more: Poll: Roberts numbers drop in Kansas | TheHill
Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook

 

[RandomVariable]

What is not mentioned in the above article is that an ad campaign pointing out that Sen. Roberts does not actually own a house in Kansas is hurting his numbers quite a bit.

 

[william the wie]

Well this thread is calling for predictions so I will call net 9 for the Rs.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Which two?

Pennsylvania and Maine are almost a shoe in at this point. Florida is leaning toward Crist (D), but not solid yet.

Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are possibilities. I guess we'll see about Texas (don't count on it)

The Republicans might pick up Arkansas.

Texas will remain red.

 

[william the wie]

If the rate of decline in presidential and ACA approval the Ds should experience a net loss of two governors.

 

[Synthaholic]

Dems hold Senate 51-49
Dems pick up 8 seats in the House
Dems pick up two Governorships

Things stay the same

Which two?

Pennsylvania and Maine are almost a shoe in at this point. Florida is leaning toward Crist (D), but not solid yet.

Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are possibilities. I guess we'll see about Texas (don't count on it)

The Republicans might pick up Arkansas.

The latest revelations will make re-election nearly impossible for Scott Walker. And his POTUS chances are now shot. Just like Christie.

 

[Synthaholic]

Davis is beating Brownback in Kansas. Another Democratic pickup possibility.

 

[william the wie]

I agree with you on Walker and POTUS but I haven't seen polling data that supports your position on reelection to governor.

 

[Synthaholic]

That's almost exactly what my own mathematical simulation shows:
http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/337481-gop-has-60-chance-of-taking-back-senate-in-2014-a.html

Though now it would be a little different, I'd put NC/MI as redder and KY as bluer than before.


I agree 100% with House seats. I don't know what the liberals are smoking here thinking Dems will gain house seats. 2014 will be a much better environment for them than 2012, so their logic is absolutely inane. Senate, I'm forecasting 51-52 seats right now based on my mathematical predictions, but Kentucky is really, really scaring me. If only Matt Bevin weren't a complete idiot and hypocrite.

Bachmann is retiring, so that's an opportunity for Democrats.

Alex Sink will beat Jolly in Florida.

Cotton is running for Senate, so that's another chance. Ditto Gingrey.

Southerland is weak.

The Cocaine Cowboy is out, but Naples, FL is pretty Republican, so they will prolly hold that one.

Bill Maher is promoting his #flipadistrict, which may be very effective. I hope he picks Paul Ryan, who is not as strong in his district as you would think. Rob Zerban may actually beat him this time.

Bachmann's retiring, if anything, will make it easier for the GOP to hold that seat. Bachmann's 2012 challenger got out of the race once she retired.
Alex Sink and David Jolly are in a very, very close race.
Gingrey and Cotton are in very GOP districts.


Besides, we have Dem retirements with Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre in very GOP districts. Plus, Nick Rahall is very vulnerable this time around.

EDIT: Sorry for the confusion, I meant a better environment than 2012 for the House, not 2010. My mistake.

Not really. Sink was up 7 points a week ago and will certainly rise even higher. A lot of retirees in that district and they won't vote against their interests, with a teabagger.