Statistikhengst
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Quinnipiac has put out the first poll pitting Hillary Clinton (D) against 6 prospective GOP candidates in three states that have been called the "Trifecta": Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
Those states are worth 67 EV, or about 10% of what a candidate needs to get to 270.
Quinnipiac University Poll Quinnipiac University Connecticut
In all three states, Clinton was polled against Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. The polling was obviously taking place shortly before Romney decided that he would not run.
Additionally, in each of the three states, a "favorite son" was polled against Hillary: Rubio (Florida), Kasich (Ohio) and Santorum (Pennsylvania).
The results: Hillary wins all 18 matchups and 16 of those 18 are double-digit wins. The two other matchups are technically ties: against Bush (Jeb) in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.
Stats:
Florida: 936 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Ohio: 943 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Pennsylvania: : 881 RV, MoE=+/-3.3
Florida:
Clinton (D) 51 / Christie (R) 33 - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton (D) 50 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Bush, J (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1
Clinton (D) 51 / Huckabee (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 49 / Rubio (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +10
Ohio:
Clinton (D) 47 / Christie (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 48 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton (D) 47 / Bush, J (R) 36 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 49 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 49 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Kasich (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1
Pennsylvania:
Clinton (D) 50 / Christie (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 53 / Paul (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +19
Clinton (D) 50 / Bush, J (R) 35 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 54 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 54 / Santorum (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20
The good news for the GOP is that with one candidate, it is competitive in Florida (Jeb Bush). The bad news is: that candidate is getting crushed in the rest of the Trifecta.
Now, whether Pennsylvania should even be considered part of the Trifecta in today's electoral landscape is a good question, for if we are honest about the electoral history of the Keystone State, it is no longer a swing state like Ohio and Florida. It is very likely that Virginia would be a more accurate state to have in a Trifecta, or at least have a Quadrifecta.
In Florida, aside from the statistical tie with Jeb Bush, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +18. Those are MASSIVE margins in what has been a low single-digit win state for 6 cycles in a row. Unfortunately for Jeb Bush, he does quite poorly in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In Ohio, aside from the statistical tie with John Kasich, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +15. In my lifetime, we have not seen such consistently high margins for a Democrat against (most all comers), ever. Bill Clinton never scored these kind of polling results, ever. Neither did Obama.
In Pennsylvania, no one even comes remotely close to Clinton, with margins from +11 to a crushing +20. Pennsylvania is now a 6 for 6 DEM state, since 1992, and in 1998, Bush 41 barely carried the state (+2.32%). Aside from 2008, since 1976, this has been a middle to low single digit state. These numbers in Pennsylvania are nothing less than astonishing.
Now, this is just one poll, of three key states, but none of this stuff occurs in a vaccuum.
With this poll, this now makes (for 2016, Clinton vs. assorted GOP comers):
-19 polls from Florida, 64 Hillary wins, 2 GOP wins.
-8 polls from Ohio, 42 Hillary wins, one absolute tie.
and
-10 polls from Pennsylvania, 46 Hillary wins, 1 GOP win.
More than that, go to the link and see how Hillary is doing with the female vote in those three states...
Facit: if these numbers hold, then Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida may not even be battleground states in 2016.
Those states are worth 67 EV, or about 10% of what a candidate needs to get to 270.
Quinnipiac University Poll Quinnipiac University Connecticut
In all three states, Clinton was polled against Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Romney. The polling was obviously taking place shortly before Romney decided that he would not run.
Additionally, in each of the three states, a "favorite son" was polled against Hillary: Rubio (Florida), Kasich (Ohio) and Santorum (Pennsylvania).
The results: Hillary wins all 18 matchups and 16 of those 18 are double-digit wins. The two other matchups are technically ties: against Bush (Jeb) in Florida and Kasich in Ohio.
Stats:
Florida: 936 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Ohio: 943 RV, MoE=+/-3.2
Pennsylvania: : 881 RV, MoE=+/-3.3
Florida:
Clinton (D) 51 / Christie (R) 33 - margin: Clinton +18
Clinton (D) 50 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Bush, J (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1
Clinton (D) 51 / Huckabee (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 49 / Rubio (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +10
Ohio:
Clinton (D) 47 / Christie (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 48 / Paul (R) 38 - margin: Clinton +10
Clinton (D) 47 / Bush, J (R) 36 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 49 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 49 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +12
Clinton (D) 44 / Kasich (R) 43 - margin: Clinton +1
Pennsylvania:
Clinton (D) 50 / Christie (R) 39 - margin: Clinton +11
Clinton (D) 53 / Paul (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +19
Clinton (D) 50 / Bush, J (R) 35 - margin: Clinton +15
Clinton (D) 54 / Huckabee (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20
Clinton (D) 50 / Romney (R) 37 - margin: Clinton +13
Clinton (D) 54 / Santorum (R) 34 - margin: Clinton +20
The good news for the GOP is that with one candidate, it is competitive in Florida (Jeb Bush). The bad news is: that candidate is getting crushed in the rest of the Trifecta.
Now, whether Pennsylvania should even be considered part of the Trifecta in today's electoral landscape is a good question, for if we are honest about the electoral history of the Keystone State, it is no longer a swing state like Ohio and Florida. It is very likely that Virginia would be a more accurate state to have in a Trifecta, or at least have a Quadrifecta.
In Florida, aside from the statistical tie with Jeb Bush, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +18. Those are MASSIVE margins in what has been a low single-digit win state for 6 cycles in a row. Unfortunately for Jeb Bush, he does quite poorly in both Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In Ohio, aside from the statistical tie with John Kasich, Clinton's margins range from +10 to +15. In my lifetime, we have not seen such consistently high margins for a Democrat against (most all comers), ever. Bill Clinton never scored these kind of polling results, ever. Neither did Obama.
In Pennsylvania, no one even comes remotely close to Clinton, with margins from +11 to a crushing +20. Pennsylvania is now a 6 for 6 DEM state, since 1992, and in 1998, Bush 41 barely carried the state (+2.32%). Aside from 2008, since 1976, this has been a middle to low single digit state. These numbers in Pennsylvania are nothing less than astonishing.
Now, this is just one poll, of three key states, but none of this stuff occurs in a vaccuum.
With this poll, this now makes (for 2016, Clinton vs. assorted GOP comers):
-19 polls from Florida, 64 Hillary wins, 2 GOP wins.
-8 polls from Ohio, 42 Hillary wins, one absolute tie.
and
-10 polls from Pennsylvania, 46 Hillary wins, 1 GOP win.
More than that, go to the link and see how Hillary is doing with the female vote in those three states...
Facit: if these numbers hold, then Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida may not even be battleground states in 2016.