Some content that may be useful for perspective in this thread's discussion.
Something on the order of the
Metal X 3D can be had for ~$100K. Not cheap, but far from prohibitively expensive.
Are we at the point of needing to implement UBI? Right this instant, no; however, some of the more aggressive scenarios place less than ten years out the point at which "what are people supposed to do for work" will become a real concern. Aggressive or moderate rates of advancement in the realm of automation notwithstanding, we are, however, without question at the point where prescient, profit-seeking and/or innovative individuals -- scientists/engineers, economists, businesspeople, computer scientists, etc. -- are, as I like to say, "
nihil obstat-ing" their way toward a fully automated world where they are at the forefront of the money-making potentiality of that world. In other words, it's clear that we are at the "when" rather than "whether" point for the primacy of automation technology.
The consequence of that is that "regular people" must at least "read the writing on the wall" and "get over" making the matter into a political one. One thing's certain, the people overcoming the challenges described in the attached documents and those availing themselves of what's presently available don't care about "liberal and conservative." They care about how to prepare for what's coming so that they aren't among the masses who may find themselves depending to greater or lesser extents on a UBI or similar largesse.
I know I wouldn't hold out rosey prospects for folks who have limited skills, limited quantities of advanced technical education, and no significant store of income-producing wealth (something that can in 2030 and beyond reliably provide ~$250K/year income).
Andecdote:
Recognizing the uncertainty and the range of currently plausible and foreseeable outcomes as they pertain to my kids -- I don't imagine I'll live long after it really comes to matter, so I'm not concerned for myself -- I might, no matter how capable they are, be the last person who can crate the economic "nest egg" they may need not to be dependent on something like UBI or other programs. That is why I and my partners were content to sell our firm; short of the lottery, we just weren't going to come into that much cash all at once so we could make sure there's some sort of "buffer" for our descendents.
Back we started our company, we didn't have visions of selling it. We figured we'd grow it and pass it on to subsequent partners. Then we saw that while we could probably continue on that path, unlike a public company, ours wasn't something we could pass on to our kids. We decided that providing for our kids and grandkids was the better choice, so we sold and let the firm be absorbed into a far larger one. So while it wasn't enough to make my kids "rich," it was enough that they'll each be able to enjoy a "decent" lifestyle regardless of whether automation prevails human labor and no matter what "solutions" the government implements when that happens.
Now, the solution approach I took isn't the only one, but I know too that thinking about the coming economy using paradigmatic models that involve snide "buried head" notions like "yeah, pay people not to work" is no solution approach at all.
The
Obama Administration issued a report that attempted to give citizens some sense of what's coming. While much of that report projects optimism that automation technology will create demand for jobs that aren't currently in high demand (relatively speaking), it also gives credence to the possibility that automation may result in there being very few jobs for humans.
AI-driven technological change could lead to even larger disparities in income between capital owners and labor. For example, Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue that current trends in the labor market, such as declining wages in the face of rising productivity, are indicative of a more drastic change in the distribution of economic benefits to come. Rather than everyone receiving at least some of the benefit, the vast majority of that value will go to a very small portion of the population: “superstar-biased technological change.” Superstar-biased technological change is somewhat similar to skill-biased technological change, but the benefits of technology accrue to an even smaller portion of society than just the highly-skilled workers. The winner-take-most and winner-take-all nature of the information technology market means that the fortunate few are likely to emerge as victors of the market. This would exacerbate the current trend in the rising fraction of total income going to the top 0.01 percent
Now I don't care what one thinks about Obama and his Administration. The fact remains that as goes the potential impact of AI on labor and income should not be estimated. Far better to "read the writing on the wall" and today lay the groundwork -- if not for oneself, for one's kids -- to be part of the "fortunate few" rather than "everyone else," but to do that one must "get real" and "get over" the politics of matter.