The US is banking on that right now obviously but it's a temporary position at best and China will be driven away more likely than needing to choose. I think you're into wishful thinking and grasping at straws.
The US is a bystander. Europe is setting the tone, and Europe is feeling threatened.
I don't need to grasp at anything- I'm just an observer. "Grasping at straws" is pretending that the Battle of Kiev was just a feint. Putin lost 20% of his invasion combat capability- more if you count by the units that were so badly degraded as to be combat ineffective.
They advanced to the outskirts of Kiev in 72 hours, and stalled out because they have no organic sustainment in the BTG formation. So they had to dig in and wait for a resupply that never arrived. For 30 days they were dug in along the roadsides, with Ukrainian forces pounding them daily, until the order to withdraw finally came on March 29.
In that time they did what frustrated and poorly trained/led/supplied armies always do- they turned their guns on the civilian population and began looting.
Some 3000+ POSME's (pieces of significant military equipment) were lost in the Battle of Kiev.. That is not a "feint". That is a military disaster. Some BTG's were completely wiped out, the lucky ones lost 30%-50% of their crews and equipment.
I have been watching the movements every day since they pulled out from Kiev. They haven't learned a damn thing. Rather than taking the time to properly reconstitute their forces and make a coherent and coordinated offensive, they just insert reinforcements into the Donbas front as they become available.
Russia still outmasses Ukraine by every measure- but the reach of the Russian army is 320km from the railhead, not one inch more.
You're talking the party line and that's not being objective. I'm not into any armchair warfare.
It's not a "party line", it's the experience of history. Just look at Iran and Iraq. There will always be companies that try to take advantage of sanctions to get a cut-rate price on oil, or to sell military hardware at a premium. I have no reason to expect anything different this time.
I also know that China's economy depends on trade with Europe and North America a hell of a lot more than it depends on Russia- which has an economy about the size of Italy. Xi knows that too.
India has their own history with China that makes any alliance against the West extremely unlikely. India views China as the primary threat to their own sovereignty, and a 30-year diaspora to the west has put a few million Indian nationals into every western nation.
India wants to be seen as a major global player, and proud to call themselves the world's largest democracy. They will not accept a position subordinate to China or Russia on anything geopolitical. They will maintain their "non-aligned" posture as far as it does not hurt their economy, and no further.
So I would say that you are the one engaging in wishful thinking- that's an opinion that I am sure you do not agree with, but that's okay too...
