- Thread starter
- #41
She does not read facts.TRUMP: “We’re having the best economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country.” — remarks in Granite City, Illinois.
THE FACTS: Even allowing for some Trumpian exaggeration, this overstates things.
The unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history. Average hourly pay, before adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below the 4 percent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as low as it is now.
Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the jobless rate remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic growth topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual rate it hasn’t touched since.
___
TRUMP, on GDP figures: “On Friday, the numbers come out, and I don’t know what they are, but there are predictions from 3.8 to 5.3. … Nobody thought we were going to be this great. … When I took over, those numbers were bad, and they were heading in the wrong direction, because of regulation. Really the taxes were too high … jobs were, forget it.” — remarks at workforce event in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: Economists do expect a strong number for growth in the April-June quarter, but it is likely to be a temporary bounce. And the U.S. economy wasn’t doing nearly as bad before Trump took office as he suggests.
Few economists doubted that growth could accelerate after the Trump administration’s tax cuts were passed last year, and Congress approved a big increase in government spending earlier this year.
But the skepticism Trump describes centers on whether the second quarter’s outsize growth can be sustained. The economy faces two significant structural drags: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working aren’t increasing their output as quickly as in the past.
Trump’s tax cuts can stimulate faster growth by putting more money in people’s pockets, but most economists expect the effect will be temporary, as those two trends act like gravity and pull the economy’s longer-term growth lower.
When the Commerce Department releases the growth figures for the April-June quarter Friday morning, economists forecast they will show the economy expanded at a 4.1 percent annual rate, according to data provider FactSet. Some analysts have said the figure could reach as high as 5 percent.
Americans have ramped up their spending after cutting back in the first three months of the year, encouraged by tax cuts that have left more money in their pockets. Yet the tax cuts provide a one-time lift to take-home pay and will likely have less impact next year, analysts say.
A large, temporary surge in agricultural exports, specifically soybeans, should also juice growth in the second quarter. Exports of U.S. soybeans soared as companies sought to ship them to China before that country slapped tariffs on them in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, forecast that soybean exports alone likely boosted GDP by 0.5 percentage point in the second quarter.
Many economists forecast growth will drop back to roughly 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the third quarter.
For the year, the economy is likely to expand at a 3 percent pace or more for the first time since 2005. But most economists forecast it will fall back below 3 percent soon afterward.
It’s not unusual for the economy to surge forward temporarily. Growth reached 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2014, before falling back to 2 percent in the next quarter.
Growth also wasn’t as bad when he took office as Trump claims. The economy expanded 2.9 percent in 2015, though it slowed the following year. Businesses added 2.3 million jobs in 2016, before Trump took office, more than the 2.2 million gained in 2017.
___
TRUMP: “The Canadians, you have a totally closed market … they have a 375 percent tax on dairy products, other than that it’s wonderful to deal. And we have a very big deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” — remarks in Peosta, Iowa.
THE FACTS: No, it’s not totally closed. Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Canada’s market is almost totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United States.
Trump also repeated his claim that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, but that is true only in goods. When services are included, such as insurance, tourism, and engineering, the U.S. had a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada last year.
Facts???
Here are the facts:
1... in today’s recovery — the slowest in the modern era going back to 1947 — private capital investment has lagged badly. ... so has the jobs situation, with 92 million dropping out of the workforce altogether. A labor-participation rate of 62.8% and an employment-to-population rate of 58% are historic lows indicative of the anemic jobs recovery. Big Business Swings Behind a Mantra of Growth - The New York Sun
2. Tavis Smiley: 'Black People Will Have Lost Ground in Every Single Economic Indicator' Under Obama
Tavis Smiley: 'Black People Will Have Lost Ground in Every Single Economic Indicator' Under Obama
["BET Founder: Trump’s economy bringing black workers back into the workforce"
BET Founder: Trump's economy bringing black workers back into the workforce]
3. . "Incomes Have Dropped Twice as Much During the 'Recovery' as During the Recession
. ...the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey ....indicate that the real (inflation-adjusted) median annual household income in America has fallen by 4.4 percent during the "recovery," after having fallen by 1.8 during the recession.
Incomes Have Dropped Twice as Much During the 'Recovery' as During the Recession
4. . In a stunning Tuesday report, Gallup CEO and Chairman Jim Clifton revealed that “for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births.”Clifton says for the past six years since 2008, employer business startups have fallen below the business failure rate, spurring what he calls “an underground earthquake”that only stands to worsen as lagging U.S. Census data becomes available.
“Let’s get one thing clear: This economy is never truly coming back unless we reverse the birth and death trends of American businesses,” writes Clifton."Economic Death Spiral: More American Businesses Dying Than Starting - Breitbart
5. "Surprise: U.S. Economic Data Have Been the World's Most Disappointing
It's not only the just-released University of Michigan consumer confidence report and February retail sales on Thursday that surprised economists and investors with another dose of underwhelming news. Overall, U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators' expectations by the most in six years." Surprise: U.S. Economic Data Have Been the World's Most Disappointing
6. . "That basic math is why middle class incomes have been in decline under Obama. The Census Bureau reports that since Obama became President 7 years ago, real median household income has fallen by $1,300 a year. Heritage Foundation Chief Economist Steve Moore explained in testimony before the Ways and Means Committee, “At 2 percent growth the economy doesn’t spin off enough jobs to increase wages, and tax revenues grow much too slowly to balance the budget.”
The recession officially ended more than 6 years ago. Wages and incomes have always grown in recoveries, not declined. Moreover, the American historical record is the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery. The economy is supposed to boom in a recovery to catch up with its long term economic growth trendline. But over 6 years after the recession ended, that still has not happened. Instead, what we have gotten under President Obama is the worst recovery from a recession since the Great Depression." Realizing The Super Bowl Of American Economic Growth
7. "Even if you leave out the first quarter of 2009—when the recession that started in December 2007 was still ongoing--President Barack Obama has presided over the lowest average first-quarter GDP growth of any president who has served since 1947, which is the earliest year for which the Bureau of Economic Analysis has calculated quarterly GDP growth. " http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/terence...-obama-has-lowest-average-1stq-gdp-growth-any
8. The Obama Administration is aggressively exploiting regulation to achieve its policy agenda, issuing 157 new major rules at a cost to Americans approaching $73 billion annually....twice the annual average of his predecessor George W. Bush. And much more regulation is on the way, with another 125 major rules on the Administration’s to-do list, including dozens linked to the Dodd–Frank financial regulation law and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare. Red Tape Rising: Five Years of Regulatory Expansion
9. . "...take-home pay for many American workers has effectively fallen since the economic recovery began in 2009, according to a new study by an advocacy group that is to be released on Thursday.
The declines were greatest for the lowest-paid workers in sectors where hiring has been strong — home health care, food preparation and retailing — even though wages were already below average to begin with in those service industries.
“Stagnant wages are a problem for everyone at this point, but the imbalance in the economy has become more pronounced since the recession,”..." http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/03/b...rkers-see-biggest-drop-in-paychecks.html?_r=0
10. . "Obamacare health insurance co-ops surged past the $1 billion mark in losses this week, making history of sorts.The insolvencies, totaling $1.36 billion, mean that the co-ops have burned through more than half of the original $2 billion appropriatedin 2010 for the program under the Affordable Care Act. The funds were loaned to the start-up co-ops in 2012 and were to be repaid in 15 years, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which manages Obamacare.
...13 of the 23 federally-financed Obamacare co-ops have officially failed in only two years. Most are in the process of default as insurance regulators attempt to pay customer’s medical bills, cover medical providers and pay other creditors.
Obamacare Co-Op Mess Causes $1.3 Billion In Losses
11. Obama is the first President never to have had a year of 3% or better economic growth: "... annual growth during Obama’s “recovery” has never topped 3%. By comparison, it never fell below 3% during the Reagan recovery. And in the nine years following the 1990-91 recession, GDP grew faster than 3% in all but two. Heck, even Jimmy Carter had some strong growth years." President Obama's Growth Gap Hits $1.31 Trillion | Investor's Business Daily
a. "The years since 2007 have been a macroeconomic disaster for the United States of a magnitude unprecedented since the Great Depression." Obama: Always Wrong, Never In Doubt
b. ".... first president since Hoover to never have a single year above 3% GDP growth."Hedge fund billionaire calls Obama economy 'amazing'
12. ".... calculating how much the debt increased during Obama's two terms. On January 20, 2009, when he was sworn in, the debt was $10.626 trillion. On January 20, 2017, it was $19.947 trillion. That's why most people say Obama added $9 trillion to the debt, more than any other president."
How Much Did Obama Add to the Nation's Debt?
One more?
13. "The Tipping Point: Most Americans No Longer Are Middle Class
December 9, 2015
A just-released analysis of government data shows that as of 2015, middle-income households have become the minority.
And middle-income Americans not only have shrunk as a share of the population but have fallen further behind financially, with their median income down 4 percent compared with the year 2000, Pew said."
The Tipping Point: Most Americans No Longer Are Middle Class
The only question is, what was the worst disaster for American and the world, Obama, or the Obama voter.