CDZ Wow! Some Proprietary Market Indicators

[william the wie]

Value Line has been around for 60+ years and its picks have done much better over that period than the Dow and S&P and this has led to some indicators:

The number of triple ones (highest ratings for safety, timeliness and technical ratings) are one such indicator. If they go up in number the market strongly tends to follow but it is not an effective timing indicator. And likewise in the other direction. The triple ones are getting kind of low in number.

Projected returns on stocks recommended for timeliness work the same way when returns are expected to increase general market returns tend to increase. the reverse is also true.

So, the market is likely to go way down in the next six months.

 

[Dekster]

Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.

 

[william the wie]

This could sink Hillary even v. Trump

 

[FA_Q2]

^ that is what the right banked on last time. It failed.

It is unlikely that a sinking economy is simply going to sink Hillary - Trump has to control the messaging during the election for it to do so. I have serious doubts that he is capable of that.

Hillary is preparing right now to take Trump out - Trump is repeating what he has done for the last several months. One of those is a winning strategy, the other is not.

 

[william the wie]

^ that is what the right banked on last time. It failed.

It is unlikely that a sinking economy is simply going to sink Hillary - Trump has to control the messaging during the election for it to do so. I have serious doubts that he is capable of that.

Hillary is preparing right now to take Trump out - Trump is repeating what he has done for the last several months. One of those is a winning strategy, the other is not.

I agree with your assessment of Trump but judging by how she screwed the pooch in her coronation procession Trump appears to be less of a loose cannon than she is. Attending what can be portrayed a peaceful BLM meeting less than 24 hours after the Dallas murders was one of the dumbest stunts pulled by a presidential candidate in my life time and I was born in the Truman administration. She will sound like an even bigger idiot in a downturn saying she will support the same policies as Obama,.

 

[yiostheoy]

Value Line has been around for 60+ years and its picks have done much better over that period than the Dow and S&P and this has led to some indicators:

The number of triple ones (highest ratings for safety, timeliness and technical ratings) are one such indicator. If they go up in number the market strongly tends to follow but it is not an effective timing indicator. And likewise in the other direction. The triple ones are getting kind of low in number.

Projected returns on stocks recommended for timeliness work the same way when returns are expected to increase general market returns tend to increase. the reverse is also true.

So, the market is likely to go way down in the next six months.

It sounds like you are an "econometrist" trader then.

So go ahead, sell off all your shares of everything.

Especially if you believe econometrics is so good as a predictors of share prices on the markets.

Technical analysis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[yiostheoy]

^ that is what the right banked on last time. It failed.

It is unlikely that a sinking economy is simply going to sink Hillary - Trump has to control the messaging during the election for it to do so. I have serious doubts that he is capable of that.

Hillary is preparing right now to take Trump out - Trump is repeating what he has done for the last several months. One of those is a winning strategy, the other is not.

I agree with your assessment of Trump but judging by how she screwed the pooch in her coronation procession Trump appears to be less of a loose cannon than she is. Attending what can be portrayed a peaceful BLM meeting less than 24 hours after the Dallas murders was one of the dumbest stunts pulled by a presidential candidate in my life time and I was born in the Truman administration. She will sound like an even bigger idiot in a downturn saying she will support the same policies as Obama,.

If you think The Donald is LESS of a loss cannon than anyone else on this Earth then you are wacko.

 

[yiostheoy]

Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.

WE are still IN a recession. Did you not get the memo?

Have you been living under a rock since 2008 ?!

 

[Dekster]

Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.

WE are still IN a recession. Did you not get the memo?

Have you been living under a rock since 2008 ?!

We are not in a recession as of yet at least, though last month's anemic job numbers would suggest we are on the cusp.

For those playing the Clinton-Trump song and dance, this won't be another "It's the economy, stupid." election. All these left-wing protestors/agitators are a minefield for Clinton, especially with police assassinations.

 

[william the wie]

Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.

WE are still IN a recession. Did you not get the memo?

Have you been living under a rock since 2008 ?!

We are not in a recession as of yet at least, though last month's anemic job numbers would suggest we are on the cusp.

For those playing the Clinton-Trump song and dance, this won't be another "It's the economy, stupid." election. All these left-wing protestors/agitators are a minefield for Clinton, especially with police assassinations.

While your post is accurate it does ignore the risk of the Blue Wall going Chapter 3 prior to the election. The skyrocketing murder rate in Chicago is mostly due to undeclared municipal bankruptcy.officially BBB.school bonds are priced to yield at B (junk) and the state legislature cannot get reelected if they cut a budget deal with the governor and forced bankruptcy is likely to hit prior to November. And the rest of the top ten states likely to default are also in the Blue Wall.

Whether the trigger is:

The slow motion bank panic in the EU.

The crash of Energy prices.

Continued deterioration in China.

or follow on Brexits.

Almost anything could cause a major crisis in most blue states and hurt many people and especially Hillary.

 

[Mac1958]

The "experts" and pundits have been telling us since early February that the market was frothy and it was gonna crash.

The S&P is up about 14% since then.

Probably best not to try to time the market.
.

 

[waltky]

This gonna sink Granny...

... Uncle Ferd gonna have to fix up her ol' apple cart...

... so she can sell apples onna street corner.

 

[william the wie]

Actually loss avoidance timing strategies increase returns markedly at less than 80% accuracy.

 

[Moonglow]

This could sink Hillary even v. Trump

And put communist in power..

 

[Dekster]

Historically we have a recession at the end of an 8 year presidency. They have no need to artificially inflate the economy when they have no other elections in front of them. People attribute it to the "uncertainty of the new president" but it really to me is a signal that economic performance is manipulated by the government.

WE are still IN a recession. Did you not get the memo?

Have you been living under a rock since 2008 ?!

We are not in a recession as of yet at least, though last month's anemic job numbers would suggest we are on the cusp.

For those playing the Clinton-Trump song and dance, this won't be another "It's the economy, stupid." election. All these left-wing protestors/agitators are a minefield for Clinton, especially with police assassinations.

While your post is accurate it does ignore the risk of the Blue Wall going Chapter 3 prior to the election. The skyrocketing murder rate in Chicago is mostly due to undeclared municipal bankruptcy.officially BBB.school bonds are priced to yield at B (junk) and the state legislature cannot get reelected if they cut a budget deal with the governor and forced bankruptcy is likely to hit prior to November. And the rest of the top ten states likely to default are also in the Blue Wall.

Whether the trigger is:

The slow motion bank panic in the EU.

The crash of Energy prices.

Continued deterioration in China.

or follow on Brexits.

Almost anything could cause a major crisis in most blue states and hurt many people and especially Hillary.

I think Hillary's problem is that it is hard for her to walk the line between the civil unrest and her pandering to minority groups whose support she needs. If she panders, she risks alienating other groups like unions/middle-class whites. I probably should not have gone down this rad though as I didn't desire to derail the thread from the economic issues.

The jobs numbers make no sense. To go from a revised 11K new jobs and a lower unemployment rate to almost 300K new jobs and a higher unemployment rate the following month sounds very fishy to me. Auto sales being down in the US and the Bank of England preparing to cut interest rates a full quarter are not good signs to me.

 

[Holos]

Value Line has been around for 60+ years and its picks have done much better over that period than the Dow and S&P and this has led to some indicators:

The number of triple ones (highest ratings for safety, timeliness and technical ratings) are one such indicator. If they go up in number the market strongly tends to follow but it is not an effective timing indicator. And likewise in the other direction. The triple ones are getting kind of low in number.

Projected returns on stocks recommended for timeliness work the same way when returns are expected to increase general market returns tend to increase. the reverse is also true.

So, the market is likely to go way down in the next six months.

I feel that because each of the concepts you have posted about are of such a wide reaching complexity, a constructive debate on the topic which binds them would require the introduction of your comprehension of them first.

Your indications seem impenetrable from the goal of having a debate.

 

[william the wie]

Some truth to that. I am more interested in obtaining new information about how to better ensure return of capital than return on capital.

 

[Dekster]

Some truth to that. I am more interested in obtaining new information about how to better ensure return of capital than return on capital.

What is your time horizon on investments? The bond market does not look like a good place to be and it certainly does not look bright for the global economy. UK lowering interest rates; US not expected to raise rates again until late next year; Japan about to go on another run of QE. When long-term bond investors or so absolutely bearish on the economy, it causes me to question how long even the stock indexes can hold ground. China will probably continue to throw out good ROI's in the near term, but in the words of Ted, "Bill, strange things are afoot at the Circle K."

 

[william the wie]

Some truth to that. I am more interested in obtaining new information about how to better ensure return of capital than return on capital.

What is your time horizon on investments? The bond market does not look like a good place to be and it certainly does not look bright for the global economy. UK lowering interest rates; US not expected to raise rates again until late next year; Japan about to go on another run of QE. When long-term bond investors or so absolutely bearish on the economy, it causes me to question how long even the stock indexes can hold ground. China will probably continue to throw out good ROI's in the near term, but in the words of Ted, "Bill, strange things are afoot at the Circle K."

Don't have one as such Buffett the greatest living investor and his mentor Graham the greatest investor of all time did not have a time horizons either. My position is to write covered puts on safe issues with a put to call ratio of three or greater and an APR on the premium I receive in excess of 15%. My current problem is that I already have positions in all issues that meet my criteria that I am aware of. That results in me being 60% in cash at the moment.

 

[Picaro]

Giant sucker rally going on today.