Even with the Ukraine War, there will be no worldwide shortage of crude oil in the next year to effect gasoline prices, no U.S. shortage of natural gas, though regional problems with hurricanes and refineries and distribution are always possible. All indications are that the direction of world crude oil prices is heading down, in large part due to increasing production in Angola and Nigeria. The recent failure of the Saudis to get African countries in OPEC+ to cut production seems to indicate that its power has lessened significantly even as it has re-oriented somewhat away from the U.S. “camp.” The Hamas-Israel “war” will probably pass in a few months and not greatly effect oil production at all. The markets certainly don’t seem to be especially concerned.
The U.S. is all but energy self-reliant even if a war or major disruptions in the Gulf occurs or the Ukraine War widens, though of course speculation, futures contracts, long-term contracts and obligations to help allies, and the taking of super profits by our own companies would all tend to raise gasoline prices significantly in those cases. The U.S. continues to pump record amounts of oil and natural gas, export record amounts of LNG, while becoming more efficient in many energy-saving areas.
The U.S. but probably not China is likely to have serious trouble reaching its present aims for massive conversion to EVs in the next two decades, but general Lithium production will clearly be no problem — its world market price has fallen dramatically and new huge discoveries have been made, and new sources will come on line as needed with few problems.
In short the U.S energy situation is good. The energy situation in parts of Europe is not good and will hobble German industry especially — and China remains highly vulnerable if there is decoupling or sanctions and fighting over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
The partisan talk here is mostly ridiculous.