I hope you will pardon me for introducing some non-partisan facts into this conversation.
During the derivatives bubble, states were told their public pension fund returns on investment were going to be higher than the old normal of 8 percent.
If your state government expects a higher ROI than in the past, then your elected officials have two choices when it comes to future public pension obligations.
Option 1: Lower the amount of contributions made by the state. Since the ROI is higher, then they will still be able to meet future obligations.
Option 2: Increase the benefits given to future public employee retirees. If you keep the contributions the same, and ROI is higher, you will have more money in the pension fund in the future, which means you can give more generous benefits.
Most states picked one of these options. Not just blue states. Red states, too. Some picked both options. They raised benefits and lowered their contributions.
Today, the "new normal" is about 3.5 percent.
To give you an idea of the scope of the problem this creates, let's use some real numbers.
If you have a municipal bus driver, Ralph Kramden, and you expect to have to pay him $100,000 in retirement benefits when he gets his gold watch in 20 years, how much money do you have to invest now so that it grows to $100K in 20 years?
Under the old normal ROI of 8 percent, you have to contribute $21,500 today for it to be worth $100,000 when Ralph retires.
Under the derivatives bubble ROI of 12 percent, you only have to contribute $10,000 for it to grow to $100,000 in 20 years. That's a HUGE savings! You are going to look GREAT to the voters when you cut the budget!
Under the new normal we are living in today with a ROI of 3.5 percent, you need to kick in a whopping $50,000. So you are $40,000 short there, Skippy. Where you going to get that from?
Hmmm.
The states did not hold up their end of the bargain, and since they don't have that $40K extra to kick into the kitty, they have...two options.
Option 1: Raise taxes and piss off everybody.
Option 2: Force public employees to increase their contributions and piss of public employees.
If you were governor, which group would you rather piss off?