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Why the 'Recovery' Is Taking So Long - Yahoo! News
The data show that the economy has stopped shrinking and started growing, which is good news no matter what. Economists broadly agree that the recession probably ended last summer, which means things ought to be getting better. Yet jobs are still scarce, the housing bust continues, consumers and businesses remain skittish, and many families are barely muddling through. "It's a recovery, yes," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. "But it sure doesn't feel like it."
Part of the reason for the slow-motion recovery is the depth and nature of the recession that preceded it. A Federal Reserve study of the past three recessions found that employment, income, spending, stock prices, home values, and wealth all fell much more sharply during the 2007-2009 recession than after the downturns of 2001 or 1991. Loan delinquencies and bankruptcies, correspondingly, rose much faster. That leaves a lot of damage to repair.
The economy also takes longer to recover from recessions these days, like an aging patient who requires more time to bounce back from an injury in his 50s than he did in his 20s. It's not entirely clear why, but technology and globalization probably allow companies to wait longer before they start hiring American workers after a spate of downsizing, which in turns dampens confidence and spending. Here's how long it took for the unemployment rate to peak and start declining after the recessions that ended in the following years:
The data show that the economy has stopped shrinking and started growing, which is good news no matter what. Economists broadly agree that the recession probably ended last summer, which means things ought to be getting better. Yet jobs are still scarce, the housing bust continues, consumers and businesses remain skittish, and many families are barely muddling through. "It's a recovery, yes," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for forecasting firm IHS Global Insight. "But it sure doesn't feel like it."
Part of the reason for the slow-motion recovery is the depth and nature of the recession that preceded it. A Federal Reserve study of the past three recessions found that employment, income, spending, stock prices, home values, and wealth all fell much more sharply during the 2007-2009 recession than after the downturns of 2001 or 1991. Loan delinquencies and bankruptcies, correspondingly, rose much faster. That leaves a lot of damage to repair.
The economy also takes longer to recover from recessions these days, like an aging patient who requires more time to bounce back from an injury in his 50s than he did in his 20s. It's not entirely clear why, but technology and globalization probably allow companies to wait longer before they start hiring American workers after a spate of downsizing, which in turns dampens confidence and spending. Here's how long it took for the unemployment rate to peak and start declining after the recessions that ended in the following years: