Humans have been emitting radio-transmitted messages out into the universe for decades now in the hopes of communicating with exterrestrial intelliegence?. Unfortunately, we haven’t had any responses. Although “absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence”, as Carl Sagan said, the lack of success of the SETI program to date makes you wonder what the chances of communicating with ETs actually are.
In order to determine the chances, radio astronomer Frake Drake came up with an equation that estimates the number of civilizations? in the galaxy which might be capable of interstellar radio communication. DrakeÂ’s equation? is:
N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
This equation consists of 8 variables, all of which are explained below.
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N is the number of civilizations within our galaxy that are capable (technology-wise) of communicating with us.
R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy. This value is currently thought to be approximately 20 stars per year.
fp is the fraction of these stars that have planetary systems. The fraction of stars with planets in our galaxy is one of the unknown factors in Drake’s Equation. The Hubble Space Telescope has spotted multiple “protoplanetary disks" (orbiting debris of gas and dust around a star out of which planets are thought to be formed) around stars. Astronomers have also discovered massive planets resembling Jupiter orbiting stars. These observations indicate that planetary systems could be common throughout the galaxy.
ne is the number of planets that have environments suitable to the development of life in each system. In other words, how many earth-like planets are there? Planets that are in the habitable zone? of a star are able to maintain a temperature that would allow liquid water, and life as we know it needs liquid water to develop and survive.
fl is the fraction of these planets that actually have life. Just because a planet is in the habitable zone of a star doesnÂ’t mean that planet will have life. Other factors such as an abundance of certain chemicals and a continual source of energy are necessary for life to develop.
fi is the fraction of these planets that have intelligent life. Intelligence could just be a fluke. Biologist Ernst Mayr noted that “It took intelligence millions of years to evolve on Earth, and it only involved once out of a billion species of earthly animals”. Intelligent life on other planets in the galaxy is likely to be as rare.
fc is the fraction of the species of intelligent life that have developed technology for interstellar communication. Consider the hundreds of thousands of species on Earth. Only we, the human race, have developed any form of technology. Also, just because an intelligent species is capable of interstellar communication, who knows whether theyÂ’d have the desire or ambition to initiate such communication?
L is the average lifetime of a technological civilization, or the length of time civilizations release detectable signals into space. This is one of the most difficult factors of the Drake equation to estimate. When species have developed technology capable of sending messages out into space, they most likely also have the technology to (inadvertently) destroy themselves.
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DrakeÂ’s equation begins with the greatest number of possibilites and multiplies that number by percentages until the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy is reduced to a probable figure. The neat thing about this equation is that you arenÂ’t just limited to calculating the number of civilizations capable of communication. You can stop at any point in the equation to calculate other factors, such as the fraction of planets that harbor life, or the number of earth-like planets in the galaxy.
Until we can confidently plug in numbers for each variable of Drake’s Equation, we cannot accurately predict the value for ‘N’, which is the number of civilizations in our galaxy capable of communicating with us. However, the equation gives a scientifically-grounded basis for speculating whether or not we are alone in the universe.