Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
What Dem candidate do you think has the best chance at beating Trump?
To be honest, I have no idea. Conventional wisdom that you need to run Biden because he is a moderate and can attract the center I think is fallacious. there isn't enough of a center anymore to make a difference.
I think the ability to beat Trump will depend on four factors.
1) The state of the economy in November 2020.
2) The personal appeal of the democratic nominee.
3) How serious Trump's mental deterioration is by November 2020.
4) Possible War with Iran
To detail.
The economy will be in some kind of downturn by next year. GDP Growth is slowing, job growth is slowing, the trade wars are having a negative effect on the economy. Will it be a bad enough recession to unseat Trump? Maybe.
While I don't think that idealogy plays that much of a factor, the candidate has to be appealing on some level. It really kind of depends on what appeals to us next year. Biden is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but by this time next year, we'll probably want someone who is calming after four years of insanity. On the other hand, we might want someone who can really fire up the base.
The flaw with Hillary was that she was unlikable on a personal level and no one really thought she stood for anything.
Third, there is the issue of Trump's mental state. Sorry, man, I know this comes as a shock to the Branch Trumpidians, but Trump isn't right in the head. His crazy twitter rants, his bizarre personal feuds with people on his side, his narcissistic desire to be praised... and he is showing early signs of senile dementia. I think these things will get worse in a long campaign, particularly if he is being ripped on every day if the economy goes south.
Finally, there is a wild card, of what if we stumble into a war with Iran. I think there would be a rally to the flag moment for Trump that might help him, but when the thing drags on, it will have the opposite effect.