Funded by the Haas Foundation in San Francisco – and conducted by Patrick J. Egan, assistant professor of politics and public policy at New York University, and Kenneth Sherrill, professor of political science at Hunter College, CUNY – the researches reviewed pre- and post-election polls, and precinct-level voting data from five California counties with the highest number of African-American voters.
“What they found was that it was not race and ethnicity that had the biggest impact on the election. It was instead some characteristics that will be unsurprising to many,” Jacobs said.
Through a precinct-by-precinct analysis and review of multiple other sources of data, the study also puts African-American support for Proposition 8 at no more than 59 percent, nowhere close to the 70 percent reported the night of the election.
Finally, the study shows how support for marriage equality has grown substantially across almost all California demographic groups – except Republicans.
According to the study, more than 70 percent of voters polled who were Republican, identified themselves as conservative, or who attended religious services at least weekly supported Proposition 8. Conversely, 70 percent or more of voters who were Democrat, identified themselves as liberal, or who rarely attended religious services opposed the measure. More than two-thirds (67 percent) of voters 65 or older supported Proposition 8, while majorities under 65 opposed the marriage ban.
