We are officially in a Recession.

[Missourian]

So. maybe someone here can help me out.

Other than losing a job, what is the biggest hardship for an individual during a recession?

If one does not lose a job and works during the recession, would they even notice it was happening?

The "independent" can't wait to jump to the defense of the administration and parrot the "it's not reeeaaaally a recession" talking point.

When are you folks going to wake up to the fact that this poster is as fake as Pamela Anderson's boobs.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The "independent" can't wait to jump to the defense of the administration and parrot the "it's not reeeaaaally a recession" talking point.

When are you folks going to wake up to the fact that this poster is as fake as Pamela Anderson's boobs.

It twas just a question, why are you all so triggered by questions you do not know the answerer to?

It is cool to just say you do not know the answer instead of trying to hide your ignorance behind personal attacks.

 

[Couchpotato]

I think while the Trump trolls are tearing down America, just to hurt Biden, theyre losing on every other metric.

Biden just got a huge victory with that CHIPs bill that passed, and another one is right behind that one.

While Biden is doing things for the country, the rightards are taking away rights, and talking about what theyre not going do. You stick with that strategy, and we’ll see how it plays out.

President Obama by any metric was a very popular President. He lost his majority in Congress in the midterms in 2010. Losing 63 seats in the house and 8 in the Senate.

In 2010 He was hovering around 50% approval. Biden is below 40.

In 2014 with slightly lower approval ratings 45ish he again lost seats in the midterms losing 7 seats in the Senate and giving control of both houses to the Republicans.

Pres Obama was popular and there wasn’t a recession on and HE lost seats. Biden is almost 20 points below Obama and saddled with record inflation and now a recession. The Dems WILL lose the house and maybe the Senate as well. You are delusional.

 

[Cougarbear]

Yes, this is always the downfall of ARMs.

Not yet, but it might come. Still the amount houses have gone up over the past 5 years most should not have an issue unless they just bought it.

Inflation and a recession are not one in the same. You call keep talking about them as if they are one in the same, they are not.

I do realize this, and this is one of the things that I predict will make the recession less severe. Business are desperate for people, this is not normally the case heading into a recession, normally they are flush with employees and have to jettison extra weight. They should not need to do that.

You have to go back to 1990 to find a recession that was not preceded by negative job numbers, and even that one had them the same month the recession started. That is not the case this time.

I know it is disappointing, but your all's hopes of depression to gain a few votes will probably not happen.

House prices are falling in these 10 U.S. cities as market shifts

Reno, Nevada, and Austin, Texas, lead a list of cities that have seen the price of houses listed for sale with a major realtor website fall the most.

www.newsweek.com

It's already happening. How could it not with interest rates going to 6%-7%. And, it's happening during the summer when people are making more moves than other times in the year.

What is also happening with inflation, our wonderful Democrat run Federal Government is passing legislation that will increase capital gain taxes on corporation (most businesses) that will pass back the increases to consumers in the form of inflation. But, not all through inflation. Corporations will stop hiring workers while laying off and cutting hours of their employees. Also, the bill will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on green energy which is a non-starter. I thought Biden learned something from Obama's Solyndra debacle. Guess not. And, Manchin has gone soft and woke in a fossil fuel state. He's done. This will drive up inflation even more. When will Democrats (and some Republicans that voted for this stupidity) learn you can't spend to get out of a recession or inflation. Good grief!
Have I said anything about voting? See, this is where Democrats are. It's all about elections and power. Never about what's best for the poor, needy, middle class and the country.
Joe Biden is compromised by Hunter's dealings and it's now very apparent that this is causing China to gain power in the U.S. and over the U.S. China is buying up land and has bought so far land that would fill up Iowa. On top of that, where is the stuff coming from for the green energy nonsense? CHINA! Our enemy!!! And, why is Biden still sending Ukraine money and weapons? Hunter's deals with Ukraine. Joe is dirty!

 

[Missourian]

It twas just a question, why are you all so triggered by questions you do not know the answerer to?

It is cool to just say you do not know the answer instead of trying to hide your ignorance behind personal attacks.

Got a few buzzwords in there...is that supposed to be upsetting?

There is no personal attack...it is an observation...one I've made many times before. You only view it as an "attack" because it detracts from your agenda if pretending to be "independent" when every post defends democrats.

Pretending to follow Christ ... Then attacking Christians.

Pretending to be pro-life, then defending Roe.

I don't comment on true believers motives. If you are an honest and forthright believer in the Democrats cause...more power to you.

But if your intention is, as yours is, to deceive people by pretending to be one thing, when you are actually something else...I'm going to continue to call that out...so you should settle in and get used to it for as long as you continue to perpetrate this charade.

Anything else you'd like to discuss?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Got a few buzzwords in there...is that supposed to be upsetting?

There is no personal attack...it is an observation...one I've made many times before. You only view it as an "attack" because it detracts from your agenda if pretending to be "independent" when every post defends democrats.

Pretending to follow Christ ... Then attacking Christians.

Pretending to be pro-life, then defending Roe.

I don't comment on true believers motives. If you are an honest and forthright believer in the Democrats cause...more power to you.

But if your intention is, as yours is, to deceive people by pretending to be one thing, when you are actually something else...I'm going to continue to call that out...so you should settle in and get used to it for as long as you continue to perpetrate this charade.

Anything else you'd like to discuss?

All that just to say you do not know the answer to the question.

That was a waste of a lot of words.

 

[Couchpotato]

So. maybe someone here can help me out.

Other than losing a job, what is the biggest hardship for an individual during a recession?

If one does not lose a job and works during the recession, would they even notice it was happening?

I assume you're saying this because the UE numbers are so low? Do we know why they are so low? UE isnt a metric of how many working age people arent working it's a metric of how many people want to work but cant get a job or at least one they want. That's fine, our UE rate is very low which is/should be good. That makes sense to me, a lower UE rate regardless is better than a high one, but here's the only thing that bothers me about it. We have less jobs now than before the pandemic, by a considerable amount. So how is it possible that the UE rate is lower now than then? Were so many people able to retire that it accounts for all the jobs we lost and the new people entering the work force? That doesnt seem feasible. So what is driving the low UE rate and can it last if inflation keeps going up? If people are able to just not work whether that's based on money they have saved or a spouse's income is enough for them to get by on will that last as inflation continues to erode those things? I feel like something has to give.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I assume you're saying this because the UE numbers are so low? Do we know why they are so low? UE isnt a metric of how many working age people arent working it's a metric of how many people want to work but cant get a job or at least one they want. That's fine, our UE rate is very low which is/should be good. That makes sense to me, a lower UE rate regardless is better than a high one, but here's the only thing that bothers me about it. We have less jobs now than before the pandemic, by a considerable amount. So how is it possible that the UE rate is lower now than then? Were so many people able to retire that it accounts for all the jobs we lost and the new people entering the work force? That doesnt seem feasible. So what is driving the low UE rate and can it last if inflation keeps going up? If people are able to just not work whether that's based on money they have saved or a spouse's income is enough for them to get by on will that last as inflation continues to erode those things? I feel like something has to give.

Part of it was people able to retire, part of it was families that had both parents working now only have one. I think this is a larger group than people realize. COVID made child care more expensive and harder to find. Thus it is no longer beneficial for both parents to be working and then paying for child care. This is not a bad thing.

If you look at the history of the Labor force participation rate we are still above where we were prior to the 80s when the push/need for both parents to work really took off. In Feb of 2020 the Labor Force Participation Rate for 25-54 was 83.0%, this month it is at 82.%.

For women it was 57.9%, now it is at 56.8, meaning far more women have not come back to the labor force. This is in large part due to the problems with finding/affording child care.

Plus we are not that far behind where we were in Feb of 2020.

Right now I do not know of a business locally that is not looking for people. Pretty much everyone is short on labor. This is a unique event heading into a recession. Typically this is not the case.

In the past 3 recessions (not counting the COVID one) job losses started either months before the recession or the same month as the recession. That is missing from this recession, so far at least.

If companies are already short labor then there is less chance that they will be jettisoning people like we have seen in past recessions.

 

[task0778]

The bottom line for whether we are in a recession probably rests with whether actual people believe we are. The expects economists, politicians, and the media can write or say what they want, but are they convincing anybody? Who are you going to believe? Them or your lyin' eyes?

An Investor's Business Daily poll released earlier this month found that 58 percent of Americans believe the country is in a recession, up from 48 percent just two months ago. A CNN poll released the same week found worse numbers: 64 percent of Americans say the country is in a recession, including 56 percent of self-identified Democrats.

I don't think the 2nd QTR GDP numbers are going to change anybody's mind except maybe in the wrong direction if you are a democrat. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, well .....

 

[Missourian]

All that just to say you do not know the answer to the question.

That was a waste of a lot of words.

All that to say exactly what I intended to say. That you are dishonest.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

All that to say exactly what I intended to say. That you are dishonest.

That is very nice. I do not really give a fuck what anyone thinks about me.

So, can you answer the question or are you too obsessed with me to even bother?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The bottom line for whether we are in a recession probably rests with whether actual people believe we are. The expects economists, politicians, and the media can write or say what they want, but are they convincing anybody? Who are you going to believe? Them or your lyin' eyes?

An Investor's Business Daily poll released earlier this month found that 58 percent of Americans believe the country is in a recession, up from 48 percent just two months ago. A CNN poll released the same week found worse numbers: 64 percent of Americans say the country is in a recession, including 56 percent of self-identified Democrats.

I don't think the 2nd QTR GDP numbers are going to change anybody's mind except maybe in the wrong direction if you are a democrat. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, well .....

This is very true, these things are often self-fulfilling. Not unlike when people are told there will be a shortage of something, everyone runs out and hordes it and BOOM there is a shortage.

 

[Flash]

You can look up the breakdown for yourself.
Get back to us, where the jobs are being created.

Do you even understand what a recession is?

I know you Moon Bats have as hard a time understanding Economics as you do History, Biology, Climate Science, Ethics and the Constitution.

Since you are being a horse's ass by denying Potatohead's failure let me 'spain it to you.

That means for two consecutive quarters the GDP of the US has decreased. That means less goods and services were created.

You can't deny your way out of that shit sandwich.

Trump handed Potatohead a rapidly improving post pandemic recovery complete with a vacinne. Potaohead blew it with his incompetency. Instead of working for the American people he chose to work for his Chinese buddies that made him rich and to reward the Moon Bat filth that helped him steal the election. Now our economy is in the toilet and the people to blame are the dumbasses that enabled Potatohead to steal the election.

 

[westwall]

That is very nice. I do not really give a fuck what anyone thinks about me.

So, can you answer the question or are you too obsessed with me to even bother?

Sure you do. If you didn't you wouldn't respond.

'tard.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Sure you do. If you didn't you wouldn't respond.

'tard.

 

[westwall]

You're the one sniveling.

'tard.

 

[task0778]

This is very true, these things are often self-fulfilling. Not unlike when people are told there will be a shortage of something, everyone runs out and hordes it and BOOM there is a shortage.

Sometimes things could be self-fulfilling but sometimes not. I don't think history applies here because of the circumstances leading up to where we are now. It ain't often we have a pandemic as bad as this one was, or the obscene gov't spending or the supply chain problems or the war on fossil fuels and of course that other war in Ukraine. We're in new territory here IMHO, and nobody knows whether any of the factors are going to abate anytime soon.

As for being self-fulfilling, for most people the twin problems of inflation and low economic growth are intertwined. They're having a very hard time making ends meet and I don't see things getting better for awhile. Whether it's one or the other doesn't really matter.

 

[Couchpotato]

Part of it was people able to retire, part of it was families that had both parents working now only have one. I think this is a larger group than people realize. COVID made child care more expensive and harder to find. Thus it is no longer beneficial for both parents to be working and then paying for child care. This is not a bad thing.

If you look at the history of the Labor force participation rate we are still above where we were prior to the 80s when the push/need for both parents to work really took off. In Feb of 2020 the Labor Force Participation Rate for 25-54 was 83.0%, this month it is at 82.%.

For women it was 57.9%, now it is at 56.8, meaning far more women have not come back to the labor force. This is in large part due to the problems with finding/affording child care.

Plus we are not that far behind where we were in Feb of 2020.

View attachment 675706

Right now I do not know of a business locally that is not looking for people. Pretty much everyone is short on labor. This is a unique event heading into a recession. Typically this is not the case.

In the past 3 recessions (not counting the COVID one) job losses started either months before the recession or the same month as the recession. That is missing from this recession, so far at least.

If companies are already short labor then there is less chance that they will be jettisoning people like we have seen in past recessions.

I’m wondering if the recession coupled with inflation will push more people into the job market which then won’t require there to be job losses for the UE to go up. Also as interest rates go up to fight inflation, less people will be taking out loans to build, buy cars, buy stuff in general which will also drive UE up and GDP down. Just the fact that a recession is happening will make people spend less which will make it somewhat of a self licking ice cream cone.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I’m wondering if the recession coupled with inflation will push more people into the job market which then won’t require there to be job losses for the UE to go up.

If UE goes up but more people are working that would not be the end of the world.

Also as interest rates go up to fight inflation, less people will be taking out loans to build, buy cars, buy stuff in general which will also drive UE up and GDP down.

This will be a problem for sure.

Just the fact that a recession is happening will make people spend less which will make it somewhat of a self licking ice cream cone.

100%

 

[Couchpotato]

If UE goes up but more people are working that would not be the end of the world.

would that be fundamentally different as far as economics go than if those people were already working and lost their jobs?